Mapping environmental suitability for malaria transmission, Greece.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Sudre B
PROVIDER: S-EPMC3647495 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundClimate change is expected to affect the distribution of environmental suitability for malaria transmission by altering temperature and rainfall patterns; however, the local and global impacts of climate change on malaria transmission are uncertain.ObjectiveWe assessed the effect of climate change on malaria transmission in West Africa.MethodsWe coupled a detailed mechanistic hydrology and entomology model with climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) to predict changes in vectorial capacity, an indication of the risk of human malaria infections, resulting from changes in the availability of mosquito breeding sites and temperature-dependent development rates. Because there is strong disagreement in climate predictions from different GCMs, we focused on the GCM projections that produced the best and worst conditions for malaria transmission in each zone of the study area.ResultsSimulation-based estimates suggest that in the desert fringes of the Sahara, vectorial capacity would increase under the worst-case scenario, but not enough to sustain transmission. In the transitional zone of the Sahel, climate change is predicted to decrease vectorial capacity. In the wetter regions to the south, our estimates suggest an increase in vectorial capacity under all scenarios. However, because malaria is already highly endemic among human populations in these regions, we expect that changes in malaria incidence would be small.ConclusionOur findings highlight the importance of rainfall in shaping the impact of climate change on malaria transmission in future climates. Even under the GCM predictions most conducive to malaria transmission, we do not expect to see a significant increase in malaria prevalence in this region.
| S-EPMC3801455 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Extrinsic environmental factors influence the spatiotemporal dynamics of many organisms, including insects that transmit the pathogens responsible for vector-borne diseases (VBDs). Temperature is an especially important constraint on the fitness of a wide variety of ectothermic insects. A mechanistic understanding of how temperature impacts traits of ectotherms, and thus the distribution of ectotherms and vector-borne infections, is key to predicting the consequences of climate change on transmission of VBDs like malaria. However, the response of transmission to temperature and other drivers is complex, as thermal traits of ectotherms are typically nonlinear, and they interact to determine transmission constraints. In this study, we assess and compare the effect of temperature on the transmission of two malaria parasites, Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax, by two malaria vector species, Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles stephensi. We model the nonlinear responses of temperature dependent mosquito and parasite traits (mosquito development rate, bite rate, fecundity, proportion of eggs surviving to adulthood, vector competence, mortality rate, and parasite development rate) and incorporate these traits into a suitability metric based on a model for the basic reproductive number across temperatures. Our model predicts that the optimum temperature for transmission suitability is similar for the four mosquito-parasite combinations assessed in this study, but may differ at the thermal limits. More specifically, we found significant differences in the upper thermal limit between parasites spread by the same mosquito (A. stephensi) and between mosquitoes carrying P. falciparum. In contrast, at the lower thermal limit the significant differences were primarily between the mosquito species that both carried the same pathogen (e.g., A. stephensi and A. gambiae both with P. falciparum). Using prevalence data, we show that the transmission suitability metric ST$$ S(T) $$ calculated from our mechanistic model is consistent with observed P. falciparum prevalence in Africa and Asia but is equivocal for P. vivax prevalence in Asia, and inconsistent with P. vivax prevalence in Africa. We mapped risk to illustrate the number of months various areas in Africa and Asia predicted to be suitable for malaria transmission based on this suitability metric. This mapping provides spatially explicit predictions for suitability and transmission risk.
| S-EPMC9357211 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMalaria remains a challenge in Solomon Islands, despite government efforts to implement a coordinated control programme. This programme resulted in a dramatic decrease in the number of cases and mortality however, malaria incidence remains high in the three most populated provinces. Anopheles farauti is the primary malaria vector and a better understanding of the spatial patterns parasite transmission is required in order to implement effective control measures. Previous entomological studies provide information on the ecological preferences of An. farauti but this information has never before been gathered and "translated" in useful tools as maps that provide information at both the national level and at the scale of villages, thus enabling local targeted control measures.MethodsA literature review and consultation with entomology experts were used to determine and select environmental preferences of An. farauti. Remote sensing images were processed to translate these preferences into geolocated information to allow them to be used as the basis for a Transmission Suitability Index (TSI). Validation was developed from independent previous entomological studies with georeferenced locations of An. farauti. Then, TSI was autoscaled to ten classes for mapping.ResultsKey environmental preferences for the An. farauti were: distance to coastline, elevation, and availability of water sources. Based on these variables, a model was developed to provide a TSI. This TSI was developed using GIS and remote sensing image processing, resulting in maps and GIS raster layer for all the eight provinces and Honiara City at a 250 m spatial resolution. For a TSI ranging from 0 as not suitable to 13 as most suitable, all the previous collections of An. farauti had mean TSI value between 9 and 11 and were significantly higher than where the vector was searched for and absent. Resulting maps were provided after autoscaling the TSI into ten classes from 0 to 9 for visual clarity.ConclusionsThe TSI model developed here provides useful predictions of likely malaria transmission larval sources based on the environmental preferences of the mosquito, An. farauti. These predictions can provide sufficient lead-time for agencies to target malaria prevention and control measures and can assist with effective deployment of limited resources. As the model is built on the known environmental preferences of An. farauti, the model should be completed and updated as soon as new information is available. Because the model did not include any other malaria transmission factors such as care availability, diagnostic time, treatment, prevention, and entomological parameters other than the ecological preferences neither, our suitability mapping represents the upper bound of transmission areas. The results of this study can now being used as the basis of a malaria monitoring system which has been jointly implemented by the Solomon Islands National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme, the Solomon Islands Meteorological Services and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The TSI model development method can be applied to other regions of the world where this mosquito occurs and could be adapted for other species.
| S-EPMC6198373 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Anopheles stephensi is a malaria-transmitting mosquito that has recently expanded from its primary range in Asia and the Middle East, to locations in Africa. This species is a competent vector of both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria. Perhaps most alarming, the characteristics of An. stephensi, such as container breeding and anthropophily, make it particularly adept at exploiting built environments in areas with no prior history of malaria risk. In this paper, global maps of thermal transmission suitability and people at risk (PAR) for malaria transmission by An. stephensi were created, under current and future climate. Temperature-dependent transmission suitability thresholds derived from recently published species-specific thermal curves were used to threshold gridded, monthly mean temperatures under current and future climatic conditions. These temperature driven transmission models were coupled with gridded population data for 2020 and 2050, under climate-matched scenarios for future outcomes, to compare with baseline predictions for 2020 populations. Using the Global Burden of Disease regions approach revealed that heterogenous regional increases and decreases in risk did not mask the overall pattern of massive increases of PAR for malaria transmission suitability with An. stephensi presence. General patterns of poleward expansion for thermal suitability were seen for both P. falciparum and P. vivax transmission potential. Understanding the potential suitability for An. stephensi transmission in a changing climate provides a key tool for planning, given an ongoing invasion and expansion of the vector. Anticipating the potential impact of onward expansion to transmission suitable areas, and the size of population at risk under future climate scenarios, and where they occur, can serve as a large-scale call for attention, planning, and monitoring.
| S-EPMC10029218 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We mapped current and future temperature suitability for malaria transmission in Africa using a published model that incorporates nonlinear physiological responses to temperature of the mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae and the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum. We found that a larger area of Africa currently experiences the ideal temperature for transmission than previously supposed. Under future climate projections, we predicted a modest increase in the overall area suitable for malaria transmission, but a net decrease in the most suitable area. Combined with human population density projections, our maps suggest that areas with temperatures suitable for year-round, highest-risk transmission will shift from coastal West Africa to the Albertine Rift between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, whereas areas with seasonal transmission suitability will shift toward sub-Saharan coastal areas. Mapping temperature suitability places important bounds on malaria transmissibility and, along with local level demographic, socioeconomic, and ecological factors, can indicate where resources may be best spent on malaria control.
| S-EPMC4700390 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundYellow fever (YF) is an arboviral disease which is endemic to Brazil due to a sylvatic transmission cycle maintained by infected mosquito vectors, non-human primate (NHP) hosts, and humans. Despite the existence of an effective vaccine, recent sporadic YF epidemics have underscored concerns about sylvatic vector surveillance, as very little is known about their spatial distribution. Here, we model and map the environmental suitability of YF's main vectors in Brazil, Haemagogus spp. and Sabethes spp., and use human population and NHP data to identify locations prone to transmission and spillover risk.Methodology/principal findingsWe compiled a comprehensive set of occurrence records on Hg. janthinomys, Hg. leucocelaenus, and Sabethes spp. from 1991-2019 using primary and secondary data sources. Linking these data with selected environmental and land-cover variables, we adopted a stacked regression ensemble modelling approach (elastic-net regularized GLM, extreme gradient boosted regression trees, and random forest) to predict the environmental suitability of these species across Brazil at a 1 km x 1 km resolution. We show that while suitability for each species varies spatially, high suitability for all species was predicted in the Southeastern region where recent outbreaks have occurred. By integrating data on NHP host reservoirs and human populations, our risk maps further highlight municipalities within the region that are prone to transmission and spillover.Conclusions/significanceOur maps of sylvatic vector suitability can help elucidate potential locations of sylvatic reservoirs and be used as a tool to help mitigate risk of future YF outbreaks and assist in vector surveillance. Furthermore, at-risk regions identified from our work could help disease control and elucidate gaps in vaccination coverage and NHP host surveillance.
| S-EPMC8797211 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Transmission of malaria-causing parasites to and by the mosquito rely on active parasite migration and constitute bottlenecks in the Plasmodium life cycle. Parasite adaption to the biochemically and physically different environments must hence be a key evolutionary driver for transmission efficiency. To probe how subtle but physiologically relevant changes in environmental elasticity impact parasite migration, we introduce 2D and 3D polyacrylamide gels to study ookinetes, the parasite forms emigrating from the mosquito blood meal and sporozoites, the forms transmitted to the vertebrate host. We show that ookinetes adapt their migratory path but not their speed to environmental elasticity and are motile for over 24 hours on soft substrates. In contrast, sporozoites evolved more short-lived rapid gliding motility for rapidly crossing the skin. Strikingly, sporozoites are highly sensitive to substrate elasticity possibly to avoid adhesion to soft endothelial cells on their long way to the liver. Hence the two migratory stages of Plasmodium evolved different strategies to overcome the physical challenges posed by the respective environments and barriers they encounter.
| S-SCDT-EMM-2021-13933 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundRift Valley Fever (RVF) poses a threat to human and animal health throughout much of Africa and the Middle East and has been recognized as a global health security priority and a key preparedness target.MethodsWe combined RVF occurrence data from a systematic literature review with animal notification data from an online database. Using boosted regression trees, we made monthly environmental suitability predictions from January 1995 to December 2016 at a 5 × 5-km resolution throughout regions of Africa, Europe, and the Middle East. We calculated the average number of months per year suitable for transmission, the mean suitability for each calendar month, and the "spillover potential," a measure incorporating suitability with human and livestock populations.ResultsSeveral countries where cases have not yet been reported are suitable for RVF. Areas across the region of interest are suitable for transmission at different times of the year, and some areas are suitable for multiple seasons each year. Spillover potential results show areas within countries where high populations of humans and livestock are at risk for much of the year.ConclusionsThe widespread environmental suitability of RVF highlights the need for increased preparedness, even in countries that have not previously experienced cases. These maps can aid in prioritizing long-term RVF preparedness activities and determining optimal times for recurring preparedness activities. Given an outbreak, our results can highlight areas often at risk for subsequent transmission that month, enabling decision-makers to target responses effectively.
| S-EPMC7562817 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSchistosomiasis is the most widespread water-based disease in sub-Saharan Africa. Transmission is governed by the spatial distribution of specific freshwater snails that act as intermediate hosts and human water contact patterns. Remote sensing data have been utilized for spatially explicit risk profiling of schistosomiasis. We investigated the potential of remote sensing to characterize habitat conditions of parasite and intermediate host snails and discuss the relevance for public health.MethodologyWe employed high-resolution remote sensing data, environmental field measurements, and ecological data to model environmental suitability for schistosomiasis-related parasite and snail species. The model was developed for Burkina Faso using a habitat suitability index (HSI). The plausibility of remote sensing habitat variables was validated using field measurements. The established model was transferred to different ecological settings in Côte d'Ivoire and validated against readily available survey data from school-aged children.Principal findingsEnvironmental suitability for schistosomiasis transmission was spatially delineated and quantified by seven habitat variables derived from remote sensing data. The strengths and weaknesses highlighted by the plausibility analysis showed that temporal dynamic water and vegetation measures were particularly useful to model parasite and snail habitat suitability, whereas the measurement of water surface temperature and topographic variables did not perform appropriately. The transferability of the model showed significant relations between the HSI and infection prevalence in study sites of Côte d'Ivoire.Conclusions/significanceA predictive map of environmental suitability for schistosomiasis transmission can support measures to gain and sustain control. This is particularly relevant as emphasis is shifting from morbidity control to interrupting transmission. Further validation of our mechanistic model needs to be complemented by field data of parasite- and snail-related fitness. Our model provides a useful tool to monitor the development of new hotspots of potential schistosomiasis transmission based on regularly updated remote sensing data.
| S-EPMC4654500 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Migrating cells are guided in complex environments mainly by chemotaxis or structural cues presented by the surrounding tissue. During transmission of malaria, parasite motility in the skin is important for Plasmodium sporozoites to reach the blood circulation. Here we show that sporozoite migration varies in different skin environments the parasite encounters at the arbitrary sites of the mosquito bite. In order to systematically examine how sporozoite migration depends on the structure of the environment, we studied it in micro-fabricated obstacle arrays. The trajectories observed in vivo and in vitro closely resemble each other suggesting that structural constraints can be sufficient to guide Plasmodium sporozoites in complex environments. Sporozoite speed in different environments is optimized for migration and correlates with persistence length and dispersal. However, this correlation breaks down in mutant sporozoites that show adhesion impairment due to the lack of TRAP-like protein (TLP) on their surfaces. This may explain their delay in infecting the host. The flexibility of sporozoite adaption to different environments and a favorable speed for optimal dispersal ensures efficient host switching during malaria transmission.
| S-EPMC3116815 | biostudies-other