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Forecasting the new case detection rate of leprosy in four states of Brazil: A comparison of modelling approaches.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Brazil has the second highest annual number of new leprosy cases. The aim of this study is to formally compare predictions of future new case detection rate (NCDR) trends and the annual probability of NCDR falling below 10/100,000 of four different modelling approaches in four states of Brazil: Rio Grande do Norte, Amazonas, Ceará, Tocantins. METHODS:A linear mixed model, a back-calculation approach, a deterministic compartmental model and an individual-based model were used. All models were fitted to leprosy data obtained from the Brazilian national database (SINAN). First, models were fitted to the data up to 2011, and predictions were made for NCDR for 2012-2014. Second, data up to 2014 were considered and forecasts of NCDR were generated for each year from 2015 to 2040. The resulting distributions of NCDR and the probability of NCDR being below 10/100,000 of the population for each year were then compared between approaches. RESULTS:Each model performed well in model fitting and the short-term forecasting of future NCDR. Long-term forecasting of NCDR and the probability of NCDR falling below 10/100,000 differed between models. All agree that the trend of NCDR will continue to decrease in all states until 2040. Reaching a NCDR of less than 10/100,000 by 2020 was only likely in Rio Grande do Norte. Prediction until 2040 showed that the target was also achieved in Amazonas, while in Ceará and Tocantins the NCDR most likely remain (far) above 10/100,000. CONCLUSIONS:All models agree that, while incidence is likely to decline, achieving a NCDR below 10/100,000 by 2020 is unlikely in some states. Long-term prediction showed a downward trend with more variation between models, but highlights the need for further control measures to reduce the incidence of new infections if leprosy is to be eliminated.

SUBMITTER: Blok DJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6198811 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Forecasting the new case detection rate of leprosy in four states of Brazil: A comparison of modelling approaches.

Blok David J DJ Crump Ronald E RE Sundaresh Ram R Ndeffo-Mbah Martial M Galvani Alison P AP Porco Travis C TC de Vlas Sake J SJ Medley Graham F GF Richardus Jan Hendrik JH

Epidemics 20170301

<h4>Background</h4>Brazil has the second highest annual number of new leprosy cases. The aim of this study is to formally compare predictions of future new case detection rate (NCDR) trends and the annual probability of NCDR falling below 10/100,000 of four different modelling approaches in four states of Brazil: Rio Grande do Norte, Amazonas, Ceará, Tocantins.<h4>Methods</h4>A linear mixed model, a back-calculation approach, a deterministic compartmental model and an individual-based model were ...[more]

PMID: 28279460

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Project description:BackgroundEarly detection and treatment of neuropathy in leprosy is important to prevent disabilities. A recent study showed that the Nerve Conduction Studies (NCS) and Warm Detection Thresholds (WDT) tests can detect leprosy neuropathy the earliest. These two tests are not practical under field conditions, however, because they require climate-controlled rooms and highly trained staff and are expensive. We assessed the usefulness of alternative test methods and their sensitivity and specificity to detect neuropathy at an early stage.MethodsThrough a literature search we identified five alternative devices that appeared user-friendly, more affordable, portable and/or battery-operated: the Neuropad®, Vibratip™, NC-Stat®DPNCheck™, NeuroQuick and the Thermal Sensibility Tester (TST), assessing respectively sweat function, vibration sensation, nerve conduction, cold sensation and warm sensation. In leprosy patients in Bangladesh, the posterior tibial and sural nerves that tested normal for the monofilament test and voluntary muscle test were assessed with the NCS and WDT as reference standard tests. The alternative devices were then tested on 94 nerves with abnormal WDT and/or NCS results and on 94 unaffected nerves. Sensitivity and specificity were the main outcomes.ResultsThe NeuroQuick and the TST showed very good sensitivity and specificity. On the sural nerve, the NeuroQuick had both a sensitivity and a specificity of 86%. The TST had a sensitivity of 83% and a specificity of 82%. Both the NC-Stat®DPNCheck™ and Vibratip™ had a high specificity (88% and 100%), but a low sensitivity (16% and 0%). On the posterior tibial nerve, the NeuroQuick and the TST also showed good sensitivity, but the sensitivity was lower than for the sural nerve. The Neuropad® had a sensitivity of 56% and a specificity of 61%.ConclusionsThe NeuroQuick and TST are good candidates for further field-testing for reliability and reproducibility. The feasibility of production on a larger scale should be examined.

Project description:Several different procedures have been described for surgical treatment of rectal prolapse and consensus on the optimal approach has not been reached. The Swedish Rectal Prolapse Trial was performed with the aim to compare the outcomes after the most common surgical approaches to rectal prolapse. A multicentre randomized trial was conducted from 2000 to 2009. Patients were randomized between a perineal or an abdominal approach for correction of rectal prolapse (randomization A) if eligible for any procedures. Patients considered unsuitable for random allocation were only included in randomizations B or C. Patients in randomization B (perineal group) were randomized to Delorme's or Altemeier's procedures and those in randomization C (abdominal group) to suture rectopexy or resection rectopexy. Primary outcomes were bowel function and quality of life, measured using Wexner incontinence score and RAND-36, and secondary outcomes were complications and recurrence at 3 years. During the study period, 134 patients were randomized: 18 in randomization A group, 80 in randomization B group and 54 in randomization C group; of these, 122 patients underwent surgery. Mean follow-up was 2.6 years. Improvements in Wexner and RAND-36 scores were seen but with no significant difference between the groups. Health change scores were significantly improved from baseline up to 1 year after surgery (P < 0.001). At 3 years, recurrence rates were two of seven patients for abdominal versus five of eight patients for perineal approach (P = 0.315), 18 of 31 patients (58 per cent) for Delorme's versus 15 of 30 patients (50 per cent) for Altemeier's (P = 0.611) and four of 19 patients (21 per cent) for suture rectopexy versus two of 21 patients (10 per cent) for resection rectopexy (P = 0.398). There were no significant differences regarding postoperative complications. For all procedures, significant improvements from baseline in health change scores were noted after surgery. Recurrence rates were higher than previously reported. Registration number: NCT04893642 (http://www.clinicaltrials.gov).

Project description:ImportanceDespite progress toward reducing global incidence, leprosy control remains a challenge in low- and middle-income countries.ObjectiveTo estimate new case detection rates of leprosy among household contacts of patients with previously diagnosed leprosy and to investigate its associated risk factors.Design, setting, and participantsThis population-based cohort study included families registered in the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort linked with nationwide registries of leprosy; data were collected from January 1, 2007, through December 31, 2014. Household contacts of patients with a previous diagnosis of leprosy from each household unit were followed up from the time of detection of the primary case to the time of detection of a subsequent case or until December 31, 2014. Data analysis was performed from May to December 2018.ExposuresClinical characteristics of the primary case and sociodemographic factors of the household contact.Main outcomes and measuresIncidence of leprosy, estimated as the new case detection rate of leprosy per 100 000 household contacts at risk (person-years at risk). The association between occurrence of a subsequent leprosy case and the exposure risk factors was assessed using multilevel mixed-effects logistic regressions allowing for state- and household-specific random effects.ResultsAmong 42 725 household contacts (22 449 [52.5%] female; mean [SD] age, 22.4 [18.5] years) of 17 876 patients detected with leprosy, the new case detection rate of leprosy was 636.3 (95% CI, 594.4-681.1) per 100 000 person-years at risk overall and 521.9 (95% CI, 466.3-584.1) per 100 000 person-years at risk among children younger than 15 years. Household contacts of patients with multibacillary leprosy had higher odds of developing leprosy (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.48; 95% CI, 1.17-1.88), and the odds increased among contacts aged 50 years or older (adjusted OR, 3.11; 95% CI, 2.03-4.76). Leprosy detection was negatively associated with illiterate or preschool educational level (adjusted OR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.38-0.92). For children, the odds were increased among boys (adjusted OR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.20-2.42).Conclusions and relevanceThe findings in this Brazilian population-based cohort study suggest that the household contacts of patients with leprosy may have increased risk of leprosy, especially in households with existing multibacillary cases and older contacts. Public health interventions, such as contact screening, that specifically target this population appear to be needed.

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Forecasting the new case detection rate of leprosy in four states of Brazil: A comparison of modelling approaches.

Publications

Forecasting the new case detection rate of leprosy in four states of Brazil: A comparison of modelling approaches.

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