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Proposal of Two Prognostic Models for the Prediction of 10-Year Survival after Liver Resection for Colorectal Metastases.

ABSTRACT: Background:One-third of 5-year survivors after liver resection for colorectal liver metastases (CLM) develop recurrence or tumor-related death. Therefore 10-year survival appears more adequate in defining permanent cure. The aim of this study was to develop prognostic models for the prediction of 10-year survival after liver resection for colorectal liver metastases. Methods:N=965 cases of liver resection for CLM were retrospectively analyzed using univariable and multivariable regression analyses. Receiver operating curve analyses were used to assess the sensitivity and specificity of developed prognostic models and their potential clinical usefulness. Results:The 10-year survival rate was 15.2%. Age at liver resection, application of chemotherapies of the primary tumor, preoperative Quick's value, hemoglobin level, and grading of the primary colorectal tumor were independent significant predictors for 10-year patient survival. The generated formula to predict 10-year survival based on these preoperative factors displayed an area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) of 0.716. In regard to perioperative variables, the distance of resection margins and performance of right segmental liver resection were additional independent predictors for 10-year survival. The logit link formula generated with pre- and perioperative variables showed an AUROC of 0.761. Conclusion:Both prognostic models are potentially clinically useful (AUROCs >0.700) for the prediction of 10-year survival. External validation is required prior to the introduction of these models in clinical patient counselling.

SUBMITTER: Kulik U

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6215566 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Proposal of Two Prognostic Models for the Prediction of 10-Year Survival after Liver Resection for Colorectal Metastases.

Kulik Ulf U Plohmann-Meyer Mareike M Gwiasda Jill J Kolb Joline J Meyer Daniel D Kaltenborn Alexander A Lehner Frank F Klempnauer Jürgen J Schrem Harald H

HPB surgery : a world journal of hepatic, pancreatic and biliary surgery 20181021

<h4>Background</h4>One-third of 5-year survivors after liver resection for colorectal liver metastases (CLM) develop recurrence or tumor-related death. Therefore 10-year survival appears more adequate in defining permanent cure. The aim of this study was to develop prognostic models for the prediction of 10-year survival after liver resection for colorectal liver metastases.<h4>Methods</h4>N=965 cases of liver resection for CLM were retrospectively analyzed using univariable and multivariable re ...[more]

PMID: 30420795

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Project description:ImportanceIschemia-reperfusion injury during hepatic resection has been shown to accelerate progression of liver cancer. However, the prognostic relevance of remnant liver ischemia (RLI) after resection of colorectal liver metastases (CLMs) is unknown to date.ObjectivesTo assess the prognostic influence of RLI after resection of CLMs and to identify correlates of greater extent of RLI.Design, setting, and participantsThis study was a retrospective analysis at The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center based on prospectively collected data. The study identified 202 patients who underwent curative resection of CLMs between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2014, and had enhanced computed tomographic images obtained within 30 days after surgery.Main outcomes and measuresRemnant liver ischemia was defined as reduced or absent contrast enhancement during the portal phase. Postoperative RLI was classified as grade 0 (none), 1 (marginal), 2 (partial), 3 (segmental), or 4 (necrotic) as previously defined. Experienced members of the surgical team retrospectively performed imaging assessments. Team members were masked to the postoperative outcomes. Survival after resection was stratified by RLI grade. Predictors of RLI grade 2 or higher and survival were identified.ResultsAmong 202 patients (median [range] age, 56 [27-87] years; 84 female), the RLI grades were as follows: grade 0 (105 patients), grade 1 (47 patients), grade 2 (45 patients), grade 3 (5 patients), and grade 4 (0 patients). Recurrence-free survival (RFS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) rates after hepatic resection were worse in patients with RLI grade 2 or higher vs grade 1 or lower (RFS at 3 years, 6.4% [3 of 50] vs 39.2% [60 of 152]; P < .001 and CSS at 5 years, 20.7% [10 of 50] vs 63.7% [97 of 152]; P < .001). A largest metastasis at least 3 cm (OR, 2.74; 95% CI, 1.35-5.70; P = .005), multiple CLMs (OR, 2.51; 95% CI, 1.25-5.24; P = .009), and nonanatomic resection (odds ratio [OR], 3.29; 95% CI, 1.52-7.63; P = .002) were associated with RLI grade 2 or higher. A largest metastasis at least 3 cm (hazard ratio [HR], 1.70; 95% CI, 1.01-2.88; P = .045), mutant RAS (HR, 2.15; 95% CI, 1.27-3.64; P = .005), and RLI grade 2 or higher (HR, 2.90; 95% CI, 1.69-4.84; P < .001) were associated with worse CSS.Conclusions and relevanceIn this study, remnant liver ischemia grade 2 or higher was associated with worse CSS after resection of CLMs. High-quality anatomic surgery to minimize RLI after resection is essential.

Project description:BackgroundMultiple liver metastases is considered a risk factor for overall survival of colorectal liver metastases patients (CRLM) after curative resection. However, whether the prognostic factors were constant in patients with various liver metastases (LM) numbers has not been adequately investigated. This retrospective study aimed to evaluate the changing of prognostic factors on overall survival (OS) in CRLM patients with various LM after curative resection.MethodsPatients who underwent liver resection for CRLM between January 2000 and November 2020 were retrospectively studied. They were divided into three subgroups according to LM numbers by X-tile analysis. Multivariable analysis identified prognostic factors in each subgroup. Nomograms were built using different prognostic factors in three subgroups, respectively. Performance of the nomograms was assessed according to the concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots. The abilities of different scoring systems predicting OS were compared by calculating the area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC).ResultsA total of 1095 patients were included. Multivariable analysis showed tumor number increasing was an independent risk factor. Patients were subsequently divided into 3 subgroups according to the number of LM by X-tile analysis, namely solitary (n = 375), 2-4 (n = 424), and ≥ 5 (n = 296). The 3-year and 5-year OS rates were 64.1% and 54.0% in solitary LM group, 58.1% and 41.7% in 2-4 LM group, and 50.9% and 32.0% in ≥ 5 LM group, respectively (p < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, RAS mutation was the only constant independent risk factor in all subgroups. The nomograms were built to predict survival based on independent factors in three subgroups. The C-index for OS prediction was 0.707 (95% CI 0.686-0.728) in the solitary LM group, 0.695 (95% CI 0.675-0.715) in the 2-4 LM group, and 0.687 (95% CI 0.664-0.710) in the ≥ 5 LM group. The time-dependent AUC values of nomograms developed using different risk factors after stratifying patients by tumor number were higher than the traditional scoring systems without patient stratification.ConclusionsThe prognostic factors varied among CRLM patients with different LM numbers. RAS mutation was the only constant risk factor. Building prediction models based on different prognostic factors improve patient stratification.

Dataset Information

Proposal of Two Prognostic Models for the Prediction of 10-Year Survival after Liver Resection for Colorectal Metastases.

Publications

Proposal of Two Prognostic Models for the Prediction of 10-Year Survival after Liver Resection for Colorectal Metastases.

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