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Epidemiology of the silent polio outbreak in Rahat, Israel, based on modeling of environmental surveillance data.

ABSTRACT: Israel experienced an outbreak of wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) in 2013-2014, detected through environmental surveillance of the sewage system. No cases of acute flaccid paralysis were reported, and the epidemic subsided after a bivalent oral polio vaccination (bOPV) campaign. As we approach global eradication, polio will increasingly be detected only through environmental surveillance. We developed a framework to convert quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) cycle threshold data into scaled WPV1 and OPV1 concentrations for inference within a deterministic, compartmental infectious disease transmission model. We used this approach to estimate the epidemic curve and transmission dynamics, as well as assess alternate vaccination scenarios. Our analysis estimates the outbreak peaked in late June, much earlier than previous estimates derived from analysis of stool samples, although the exact epidemic trajectory remains uncertain. We estimate the basic reproduction number was 1.62 (95% CI 1.04-2.02). Model estimates indicate that 59% (95% CI 9-77%) of susceptible individuals (primarily children under 10 years old) were infected with WPV1 over a little more than six months, mostly before the vaccination campaign onset, and that the vaccination campaign averted 10% (95% CI 1-24%) of WPV1 infections. As we approach global polio eradication, environmental monitoring with qPCR can be used as a highly sensitive method to enhance disease surveillance. Our analytic approach brings public health relevance to environmental data that, if systematically collected, can guide eradication efforts.

SUBMITTER: Brouwer AF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6233100 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Epidemiology of the silent polio outbreak in Rahat, Israel, based on modeling of environmental surveillance data.

Brouwer Andrew F AF Eisenberg Joseph N S JNS Pomeroy Connor D CD Shulman Lester M LM Hindiyeh Musa M Manor Yossi Y Grotto Itamar I Koopman James S JS Eisenberg Marisa C MC

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20181018 45

Israel experienced an outbreak of wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) in 2013-2014, detected through environmental surveillance of the sewage system. No cases of acute flaccid paralysis were reported, and the epidemic subsided after a bivalent oral polio vaccination (bOPV) campaign. As we approach global eradication, polio will increasingly be detected only through environmental surveillance. We developed a framework to convert quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) cycle threshold data into sc ...[more]

PMID: 30337479

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Project description:Polio eradication is an extraordinary globally coordinated health program in terms of its magnitude and reach, leading to the elimination of wild poliovirus (WPV) in most parts of the world. In 2013, a silent outbreak of WPV was detected in Israel, a country using an inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) exclusively since 2005. The outbreak was detected using environmental surveillance (ES) of sewage reservoirs. Stool surveys indicated the outbreak to be restricted mainly to children under the age of 10 in the Bedouin population of southern Israel. In order to curtail the outbreak, a nationwide vaccination campaign using oral polio vaccine (OPV) was conducted, targeting all children under 10.A transmission model, fitted to the results of the stool surveys, with additional conditions set by the ES measurements, was used to evaluate the prevalence of WPV in Bedouin children and the effectiveness of the vaccination campaign. Employing the parameter estimates of the model fitting, the model was used to investigate the effect of alternative timings, coverages and dosages of the OPV campaign on the outcome of the outbreak.The mean estimate for the mean reproductive number was 1.77 (95 % credible interval, 1.46-2.30). With seasonal variation, the reproductive number maximum range was between zero and six. The mean estimate for the mean infectious periods was 16.8 (8.6-24.9) days. The modeling indicates the OPV campaign was effective in curtailing the outbreak. The mean estimate for the attack rate in Bedouin children under 10 at the end of 2014 was 42 % (22-65 %), whereas without the campaign the mean projected attack rate was 57 % (35-74 %). The campaign also likely shortened the duration of the outbreak by a mean estimate of 309 (2-846) days. A faster initiation of the OPV campaign could have reduced the incidence of WPV even if a lower coverage was reached, at the risk of prolonging the outbreak.OPV campaigns are essential for interrupting WPV transmission, even in a developed country setting with a high coverage of IPV. In this setting, establishing ES of WPV circulation is particularly crucial for early detection and containment of an outbreak.

Project description:The Polio Endgame Strategy 2019-2023 has been developed. However, more effective and efficient surveillance activities should be conducted with the preparedness of emergence for vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV) or wild poliovirus (WPV). We reviewed the impact of the case-based acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance (1991 to 2018) and environmental surveillance (2011 to 2018) in polio eradication in Shandong province of China. Clinical characteristics of AFP cases and enterovirus (EV) investigation of research samples were assessed. During the period, 10,224 AFP cases were investigated, and 352 sewage samples were collected. The nonpolio AFP rate sustained at over 2.0/100,000 since 1997. Of 10,224 cases, males and young children experienced a higher risk of severe diseases, and 68.5% suffered lower limb paralysis. We collected 1,707 EVs from AFP cases, including 763 polioviruses and 944 nonpolio enteroviruses (NPEVs). No WPV was isolated since 1992. The AFP surveillance showed high sensitivity in detecting 143 vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis (VAPP) cases and 6 VDPVs. For environmental surveillance, 217 (61.6%) samples were positive for poliovirus, and altogether, 838 polioviruses and 2,988 NPEVs were isolated. No WPV was isolated in environmental surveillance, although one VDPV2 was identified. Phylogenetic analysis revealed environmental surveillance had the capacity to detect a large scope of NPEVs. The case-based AFP surveillance will be indispensable for detecting VAPP cases and VDPV circulation in countries using oral polio vaccine. Environmental surveillance is advantageous in identifying EV circulation and responding to ongoing circulating VDPV outbreaks and should be expanded to complement the AFP surveillance.IMPORTANCE Interrupting wild poliovirus transmission and stopping circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) outbreaks have been proposed as two global goals by the World Health Organization in the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI). This analysis, based on the 28-year acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance and 8-year environmental surveillance, provides continued high-quality surveillance performance in achieving the GPEI and detecting the circulation of enterovirus. Given the ongoing cVDPV outbreaks in the world, we present the surveillance capacity of environmental surveillance in capturing enterovirus circulation. The final poliovirus (especially VDPV) elimination has become increasingly complex, and the case-based AFP surveillance alone will lead to difficulties in early detecting dynamics of poliovirus transmission and monitoring the extent of environmental circulation. This study goes beyond previous work to provide a detailed comprehensive evaluation of the enterovirus surveillance and can be used to formulate a set of implementation plan and performance indicators for environmental surveillance.

Project description:BackgroundThe polio environmental surveillance (ES) system has been an incredible tool for advancing polio eradication efforts because of its ability to highlight the spatial and temporal extent of poliovirus circulation. While ES often outperforms, or is more sensitive than AFP surveillance, the sensitivity of the ES system has not been well characterized. Fundamental uncertainty of ES site sensitivity makes it difficult to interpret results from ES, particularly negative results.Methods and findingsTo study ES sensitivity, we used data from Afghanistan and Pakistan to examine the probability that each ES site detected the Sabin 1, 2, or 3 components of the oral polio vaccine (OPV) as a function of virus prevalence within the same district (estimated from AFP data). Accounting for virus prevalence is essential for estimating site sensitivity because Sabin detection rates should vary with prevalence-high immediately after supplemental immunization activities (SIAs), but low in subsequent months. We found that most ES sites in Pakistan and Afghanistan are highly sensitive for detecting poliovirus relative to AFP surveillance in the same districts. For example, even when Sabin poliovirus is at low prevalence of ~0.5-3% in AFP surveillance, most ES sites have ~34-50% probability of detecting Sabin. However, there was considerable variation in ES site sensitivity and we flagged several sites for re-evaluation based on low sensitivity rankings and low wild polio virus detection rates. In these areas, adding new sites or modifying collection methods in current sites could improve sensitivity of environmental surveillance.ConclusionsRelating ES detections to virus prevalence significantly improved our ability to evaluate site sensitivity compared to evaluations based solely on ES detection rates. To extend our approach to new sites and regions, we provide a preliminary framework for relating ES and AFP detection rates, and descriptions of how detection rates might relate to SIAs and natural seasonality.

Project description:In the context of poliomyelitis eradication, a reinforced supplementary laboratory surveillance of enteroviruses was implemented in Greece. Between 2008 and 2014, the Hellenic Polioviruses/Enteroviruses Reference Laboratory performed detailed supplementary surveillance of circulating enteroviruses among healthy individuals in high-risk population groups, among immigrants from countries in which poliovirus is endemic, and in environmental samples. In total, 722 stool samples and 179 sewage water samples were included in the study. No wild-type polioviruses were isolated during these 7 years of surveillance, although two imported vaccine polioviruses were detected. Enterovirus presence was recorded in 25.3 and 25.1% of stool and sewage water samples, respectively. Nonpolio enteroviruses isolated from stool samples belonged to species A, B, or C; coxsackievirus A24 was the most frequently identified serotype. Only enteroviruses of species B were identified in sewage water samples, including four serotypes of echoviruses and four serotypes of coxsackie B viruses. Phylogenetic analysis revealed close genetic relationships among virus isolates from sewage water samples and stool samples, which in most cases fell into the same cluster. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to compare enterovirus serotypes circulating in fecal specimens of healthy individuals and environmental samples, emphasizing the burden of enterovirus circulation in asymptomatic individuals at high risk. Given that Greece continues to receive a large number of short-term arrivals, students, migrants, and refugees from countries in which poliovirus is endemic, it is important to guarantee high-quality surveillance in order to maintain its polio-free status until global eradication is achieved.IMPORTANCE This article summarizes the results of supplementary poliovirus surveillance in Greece and the subsequent characterization of enteroviral circulation in human feces and the environment. The examination of stool samples from healthy refugees and other individuals in "high-risk" groups for poliovirus enables the identification of enterovirus cases and forms the basis for further investigation of the community-level risk of viral transmission. In addition, the examination of composite human fecal samples through environmental surveillance links poliovirus and nonpoliovirus isolates from unknown individuals to populations served by the sewage or wastewater system. Supplementary surveillance is necessary to comply with the prerequisites imposed by the World Health Organization for monitoring the emergence of vaccine-derived polioviruses, reemergence of wild polioviruses, or disappearance of all vaccine-related strains in order for countries such as Greece to maintain their polio-free status and contribute to global poliovirus eradication.

Dataset Information

Epidemiology of the silent polio outbreak in Rahat, Israel, based on modeling of environmental surveillance data.

Publications

Epidemiology of the silent polio outbreak in Rahat, Israel, based on modeling of environmental surveillance data.

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