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Modeling the spread of polio in an IPV-vaccinated population: lessons learned from the 2013 silent outbreak in southern Israel.

ABSTRACT: Polio eradication is an extraordinary globally coordinated health program in terms of its magnitude and reach, leading to the elimination of wild poliovirus (WPV) in most parts of the world. In 2013, a silent outbreak of WPV was detected in Israel, a country using an inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) exclusively since 2005. The outbreak was detected using environmental surveillance (ES) of sewage reservoirs. Stool surveys indicated the outbreak to be restricted mainly to children under the age of 10 in the Bedouin population of southern Israel. In order to curtail the outbreak, a nationwide vaccination campaign using oral polio vaccine (OPV) was conducted, targeting all children under 10.A transmission model, fitted to the results of the stool surveys, with additional conditions set by the ES measurements, was used to evaluate the prevalence of WPV in Bedouin children and the effectiveness of the vaccination campaign. Employing the parameter estimates of the model fitting, the model was used to investigate the effect of alternative timings, coverages and dosages of the OPV campaign on the outcome of the outbreak.The mean estimate for the mean reproductive number was 1.77 (95 % credible interval, 1.46-2.30). With seasonal variation, the reproductive number maximum range was between zero and six. The mean estimate for the mean infectious periods was 16.8 (8.6-24.9) days. The modeling indicates the OPV campaign was effective in curtailing the outbreak. The mean estimate for the attack rate in Bedouin children under 10 at the end of 2014 was 42 % (22-65 %), whereas without the campaign the mean projected attack rate was 57 % (35-74 %). The campaign also likely shortened the duration of the outbreak by a mean estimate of 309 (2-846) days. A faster initiation of the OPV campaign could have reduced the incidence of WPV even if a lower coverage was reached, at the risk of prolonging the outbreak.OPV campaigns are essential for interrupting WPV transmission, even in a developed country setting with a high coverage of IPV. In this setting, establishing ES of WPV circulation is particularly crucial for early detection and containment of an outbreak.

SUBMITTER: Yaari R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4918056 | biostudies-literature | 2016 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modeling the spread of polio in an IPV-vaccinated population: lessons learned from the 2013 silent outbreak in southern Israel.

Yaari Rami R Kaliner Ehud E Grotto Itamar I Katriel Guy G Moran-Gilad Jacob J Sofer Danit D Mendelson Ella E Miller Elizabeth E Huppert Amit A Anis E E Kopel E E Manor Y Y Mor O O Shulman L L Singer R R Weil M M

BMC medicine 20160623 1

<h4>Background</h4>Polio eradication is an extraordinary globally coordinated health program in terms of its magnitude and reach, leading to the elimination of wild poliovirus (WPV) in most parts of the world. In 2013, a silent outbreak of WPV was detected in Israel, a country using an inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) exclusively since 2005. The outbreak was detected using environmental surveillance (ES) of sewage reservoirs. Stool surveys indicated the outbreak to be restricted mainly to childre ...[more]

PMID: 27334457

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Project description:BackgroundWe undertook investigations in response to an invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) outbreak in men who have sex with men (MSM) in Berlin 2012-2013 to better understand meningococcal transmission and IMD risk in MSM.MethodsWe retrospectively searched for further IMD cases in MSM in Germany through local health departments and undertook exploratory interviews. We performed antigen sequence typing, characterized fHbp and aniA genes of strains with the outbreak finetype and reviewed epidemiologically or spatiotemporally linked cases from 2002-2014.ResultsAmong the 148 IMD-cases notified from 01.01.2012-30.09.2013 in 18-59 year-old men we identified 13 MSM in 6 federal states: 11 serogroup C (MenC, all finetype C:P1.5-1,10-8:F3-6), 2 MenB. Interviews with 7 MSM revealed frequent meeting of multiple partners online or via mobile apps and illicit drug use as potential risk factors. MenC incidence was 13-fold higher in MSM than non-MSM. MenC isolates from 9/11 MSM had a novel fHbp allele 766. All C:P1.5-1,10-8:F3-6 strains from MSM versus 16/23 from non-MSM had intact aniA genes (p = 0.04). Although definitive evidence for transmission among MSM in epidemiological or spatiotemporal clusters in 2002-2014 was lacking, clusters were more frequent in men aged 20-49 years. Molecular analysis of C:P1.5-1,10-8:F3-6 strains revealed cases with intact aniA since 2007, mainly associated with fHbp361, fHbp766 and fHbp813, all involving one or more MSM.ConclusionsMenC incidence was elevated in MSM during the study period. Multiple casual sexual contacts and illicit drug use were common in affected MSM. In all strains from MSM we detected an intact aniA gene coding for a nitrite reductase, which permits survival in microanaerobic environments and could play a role in meningococcal transmission in MSM through urogenital colonization. Furthermore, meningococcal transmission among MSM may be sustained over large areas and thus require modified spatiotemporal scanning algorithms for timely detection and control.

Dataset Information

Modeling the spread of polio in an IPV-vaccinated population: lessons learned from the 2013 silent outbreak in southern Israel.

Publications

Modeling the spread of polio in an IPV-vaccinated population: lessons learned from the 2013 silent outbreak in southern Israel.

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