Dataset Information

Remote subsurface ocean temperature as a predictor of Atlantic hurricane activity.

ABSTRACT: Predicting North Atlantic hurricane activity months in advance is of great potential societal significance. The ocean temperature, both in terms of North Atlantic/tropical averages and upper ocean heat content, is demonstrated to be a significant predictor. To investigate the relationship between the thermal state of the Atlantic Ocean and the tropical cyclone (TC) activity in terms of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), we use observed 1980-2015 TC records and a 1/4° resolution global ocean reanalysis. This paper highlights the nonlocal effect associated with eastern Atlantic Ocean temperature, via a reduction of wind shear, and provides additional predictive skill of TC activity, when considering subsurface temperature instead of sea surface temperature (SST) only. The most active TC seasons occur for lower than normal wind shear conditions over the main development region, which is also driven by reduced trade wind strength. A significant step toward operationally reliable TC activity predictions is gained after including upper ocean mean temperatures over the eastern Atlantic domain. Remote effects are found to provide potential skill of ACE up to 3 months in advance. These results indicate that consideration of the upper 40-m ocean average temperature improves upon a prediction of September Atlantic hurricane activity using only SST.

SUBMITTER: Scoccimarro E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6233117 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Remote subsurface ocean temperature as a predictor of Atlantic hurricane activity.

Scoccimarro Enrico E Bellucci Alessio A Storto Andrea A Gualdi Silvio S Masina Simona S Navarra Antonio A

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20181022 45

Predicting North Atlantic hurricane activity months in advance is of great potential societal significance. The ocean temperature, both in terms of North Atlantic/tropical averages and upper ocean heat content, is demonstrated to be a significant predictor. To investigate the relationship between the thermal state of the Atlantic Ocean and the tropical cyclone (TC) activity in terms of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), we use observed 1980-2015 TC records and a 1/4° resolution global ocean reana ...[more]

PMID: 30348766

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Project description:BackgroundExtreme weather events, including hurricanes, have considerable biological, ecological, and anthropogenic impacts. Hurricane Irene caused substantial economic damage when it hit the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) off of the eastern United States in August of 2011. The MAB is highly stratified during the summer when a strong thermocline separates warm, surface water from deep, cold water, and this oceanographic phenomenon makes modeling hurricane strength difficult. Loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) forage in the MAB primarily during the stratified season and their dive behavior to the bottom allows them to experience the oceanographic conditions of the entire water column.MethodsIn this study, we analyzed the movements and dive behavior of juvenile and adult-sized loggerhead sea turtles (n = 18) that were foraging in the MAB as Hurricane Irene moved through the region. The satellite tags deployed on these turtles transmitted location data and dive behavior as well as sea surface temperature (SST) and temperature-depth profiles during this time.ResultsBehavioral and environmental shifts were observed during and after the hurricane compared to conditions before the storm. During the hurricane, most of the turtles (n = 15) moved north of their pre-storm foraging grounds. Following the storm, some turtles left their established foraging sites (n = 8) moving south by 7.3-135.0 km, and for the others that remained (n = 10), 12% of the observed dives were longer (0.54-1.11 h) than dives observed before the storm. The in situ data collected by the turtle-borne tags captured the cooling of the SST (Mean difference = 4.47°C) and the deepening of the thermocline relative to the pre-storm conditions.ConclusionsSome of the loggerhead behavior observed relative to a passing hurricane differed from the regular pattern of seasonal movement expected for turtles that forage in the MAB. These data documented the shifts in sea turtle behavior and distribution during an ecosystem-level perturbation and the recorded in situ data demonstrated that loggerheads observe environmental changes to the entire water column, including during extreme weather events.

Dataset Information

Remote subsurface ocean temperature as a predictor of Atlantic hurricane activity.

Publications

Remote subsurface ocean temperature as a predictor of Atlantic hurricane activity.

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