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Ocean precursors to the extreme Atlantic 2017 hurricane season.

ABSTRACT: Active Atlantic hurricane seasons are favoured by positive precursor sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the main development region (MDR, 10-20°N, 20-80°W). Here, we identify a different driving mechanism for these anomalies in 2017 (most costly season on record) compared to the recent active 2005 and 2010 seasons. In 2005 and 2010, a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is the primary driver of positive SSTA. However, in 2017, reduced wind-driven cold water upwelling and weaker surface net heat loss in the north-eastern MDR were the main drivers. Our results are the first to show that air-sea heat flux and wind stress related processes are important in generating precursor positive SSTAs and that these processes were active pre-determinants of the 2017 season severity. In contrast to other strong seasons, positive SSTA developed later in 2017 (between April and July rather than March) compounding the challenge of predicting Atlantic hurricane season severity.

SUBMITTER: Hallam S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6384944 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Ocean precursors to the extreme Atlantic 2017 hurricane season.

Hallam Samantha S Marsh Robert R Josey Simon A SA Hyder Pat P Moat Ben B Hirschi Joël J-M JJ

Nature communications 20190222 1

Active Atlantic hurricane seasons are favoured by positive precursor sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the main development region (MDR, 10-20°N, 20-80°W). Here, we identify a different driving mechanism for these anomalies in 2017 (most costly season on record) compared to the recent active 2005 and 2010 seasons. In 2005 and 2010, a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is the primary driver of positive SSTA. However, in 2017, reduced wind-driven cold water upwelling an ...[more]

PMID: 30796207

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Project description:BackgroundExtreme weather events, including hurricanes, have considerable biological, ecological, and anthropogenic impacts. Hurricane Irene caused substantial economic damage when it hit the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) off of the eastern United States in August of 2011. The MAB is highly stratified during the summer when a strong thermocline separates warm, surface water from deep, cold water, and this oceanographic phenomenon makes modeling hurricane strength difficult. Loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) forage in the MAB primarily during the stratified season and their dive behavior to the bottom allows them to experience the oceanographic conditions of the entire water column.MethodsIn this study, we analyzed the movements and dive behavior of juvenile and adult-sized loggerhead sea turtles (n = 18) that were foraging in the MAB as Hurricane Irene moved through the region. The satellite tags deployed on these turtles transmitted location data and dive behavior as well as sea surface temperature (SST) and temperature-depth profiles during this time.ResultsBehavioral and environmental shifts were observed during and after the hurricane compared to conditions before the storm. During the hurricane, most of the turtles (n = 15) moved north of their pre-storm foraging grounds. Following the storm, some turtles left their established foraging sites (n = 8) moving south by 7.3-135.0 km, and for the others that remained (n = 10), 12% of the observed dives were longer (0.54-1.11 h) than dives observed before the storm. The in situ data collected by the turtle-borne tags captured the cooling of the SST (Mean difference = 4.47°C) and the deepening of the thermocline relative to the pre-storm conditions.ConclusionsSome of the loggerhead behavior observed relative to a passing hurricane differed from the regular pattern of seasonal movement expected for turtles that forage in the MAB. These data documented the shifts in sea turtle behavior and distribution during an ecosystem-level perturbation and the recorded in situ data demonstrated that loggerheads observe environmental changes to the entire water column, including during extreme weather events.

Dataset Information

Ocean precursors to the extreme Atlantic 2017 hurricane season.

Publications

Ocean precursors to the extreme Atlantic 2017 hurricane season.

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