Dataset Information

Overlooked Trends in Observed Global Annual Precipitation Reveal Underestimated Risks.

ABSTRACT: Numerous human and environmental systems are sensitive to the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation, including agriculture, water supply, and ecosystems. Trends in observed precipitation form an important line of evidence to understand how changes may increase system vulnerabilities. Linear trends reported in US and global climate assessments reflect changes in mean annual precipitation. Mean trends may not reflect changes across other quantiles in the precipitation probability distribution, including the tails (very high and low precipitation levels), leading to systematic mischaracterization of climate risk. Here we reanalyze global annual precipitation using quantile regression to reveal overlooked trends. We find trends in the tails inconsistent with the mean in 44.4% of land area and 40.7% of rainfed agricultural regions. Previously undetected trends offer a more accurate view of the changing climate. This work enables reappraisals of risk aggregated over thresholds in human and environmental systems, enabling revaluation of threats and identification of appropriate adaptation strategies.

SUBMITTER: Lausier AM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6233197 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Overlooked Trends in Observed Global Annual Precipitation Reveal Underestimated Risks.

Lausier Anne M AM Jain Shaleen S

Scientific reports 20181113 1

Numerous human and environmental systems are sensitive to the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation, including agriculture, water supply, and ecosystems. Trends in observed precipitation form an important line of evidence to understand how changes may increase system vulnerabilities. Linear trends reported in US and global climate assessments reflect changes in mean annual precipitation. Mean trends may not reflect changes across other quantiles in the precipitation probability dist ...[more]

PMID: 30425275

Similar Datasets

Project description:Background and aimsThe impact of global warming on life cycle timing is uncertain. We investigated changes in life cycle timing in a global warming scenario. We compared Arabidopsis thaliana ecotypes adapted to the warm/dry Cape Verdi Islands (Cvi), Macaronesia, and the cool/wet climate of the Burren (Bur), Ireland, Northern Europe. These are obligate winter and summer annuals, respectively.MethodsUsing a global warming scenario predicting a 4 °C temperature rise from 2011 to approx. 2080, we produced F1 seeds at each end of a thermogradient tunnel. Each F1 cohort (cool and warm) then produced F2 seeds at both ends of the thermal gradient in winter and summer annual life cycles. F2 seeds from the winter life cycle were buried at three positions along the gradient to determine the impact of temperature on seedling emergence in a simulated winter life cycle.Key resultsIn a winter life cycle, increasing temperatures advanced flowering time by 10.1 d °C-1 in the winter annual and 4.9 d °C-1 in the summer annual. Plant size and seed yield responded positively to global warming in both ecotypes. In a winter life cycle, the impact of increasing temperature on seedling emergence timing was positive in the winter annual, but negative in the summer annual. Global warming reduced summer annual plant size and seed yield in a summer life cycle.ConclusionsSeedling emergence timing observed in the north European summer annual ecotype may exacerbate the negative impact of predicted increased spring and summer temperatures on their establishment and reproductive performance. In contrast, seedling establishment of the Macaronesian winter annual may benefit from higher soil temperatures that will delay emergence until autumn, but which also facilitates earlier spring flowering and consequent avoidance of high summer temperatures. Such plasticity gives winter annual arabidopsis ecotypes a distinct advantage over summer annuals in expected global warming scenarios. This highlights the importance of variation in the timing of seedling establishment in understanding plant species responses to anthropogenic climate change.

Dataset Information

Overlooked Trends in Observed Global Annual Precipitation Reveal Underestimated Risks.

Publications

Overlooked Trends in Observed Global Annual Precipitation Reveal Underestimated Risks.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets