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Predicting the potential distribution of the endangered red panda across its entire range using MaxEnt modeling.

ABSTRACT: An upsurge in anthropogenic impacts has hastened the decline of the red panda (Ailurus fulgens). The red panda is a global conservation icon, but holistic conservation management has been hampered by research being restricted to certain locations and population clusters. Building a comprehensive potential habitat map for the red panda is imperative to advance the conservation effort and ensure coordinated management across international boundaries. Here, we use occurrence records of both subspecies of red pandas from across their entire range to build a habitat model using the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt 3.3.3k) and the least correlated bioclimatic variables. We found that the subspecies have separate climatic spaces dominated by temperature-associated variables in the eastern geographic distribution limit and precipitation-associated variables in the western distribution limit. Annual precipitation (BIO12) and maximum temperature in the warmest months (BIO5) were major predictors of habitat suitability for A. f. fulgens and A. f. styani, respectively. Our model predicted 134,975 km2 of red panda habitat based on 10 percentile thresholds in China (62% of total predicted habitat), Nepal (15%), Myanmar (9%), Bhutan (9%), and India (5%). Existing protected areas (PAs) encompass 28% of red panda habitat, meaning the PA network is currently insufficient and alternative conservation mechanisms are needed to protect the habitat. Bhutan's PAs provide good coverage for the red panda habitat. Furthermore, large areas of habitat were predicted in cross-broader areas, and transboundary conservation will be necessary.

SUBMITTER: Thapa A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6238126 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting the potential distribution of the endangered red panda across its entire range using MaxEnt modeling.

Thapa Arjun A Wu Ruidong R Hu Yibo Y Nie Yonggang Y Singh Paras B PB Khatiwada Janak R JR Yan Li L Gu Xiaodong X Wei Fuwen F

Ecology and evolution 20181012 21

An upsurge in anthropogenic impacts has hastened the decline of the red panda (<i>Ailurus fulgens</i>). The red panda is a global conservation icon, but holistic conservation management has been hampered by research being restricted to certain locations and population clusters. Building a comprehensive potential habitat map for the red panda is imperative to advance the conservation effort and ensure coordinated management across international boundaries. Here, we use occurrence records of both ...[more]

PMID: 30464826

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Project description:Upland buzzard (Buteo hemilasius), Saker falcon (Falco cherrug), and Himalayan vulture (Gyps himalayensis) are three common large raptors in the Sanjiangyuan National Park (SNP), China's first national park. Among them, Upland buzzard and Saker falcon play a significant role in controlling plateau rodent populations and reducing the transmission of pathogens carried by rodents. The Himalayan vulture can provide services for the redistribution and recycling of nutrients in the ecosystem, and play an irreplaceable role in the celestial burial culture of Tibetans in China. Exploring their habitat suitability is important for the protection of the three raptors. Our research was based on the current distribution of Upland buzzard, Saker falcon, and Himalayan vulture that we had extensively surveyed in the Sanjiangyuan National Park from 2016 to 2017. Combined with the correlation analysis of environmental variables, we utilized maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to evaluate and compare the habitat suitability of the three species in the Sanjiangyuan National Park. Elevation, climate, and human disturbance factors, which had direct or indirect effects on species survival and reproduction, were all included in the model. Among them, elevation was the most important environmental variables affecting the suitability of habitats of three species. Temperature-related factor was another important predictor. The high (>60%) suitable habitat areas for Upland buzzard, Saker falcon, and Himalayan vulture were 73,017.63, 40,732.78, and 61,654.33 km2, respectively, accounted for 59.32%, 33.09%, and 50.08% of the Sanjiangyuan National Park and their total suitable area (i.e., the sum area of high and moderate habitats) reached 96.07%, 60.59%, and 93.70%, respectively. Besides, the three species have overlapping areas for the suitable habitats, which means that overlapping areas should be highly valued and protected. Therefore, understanding the distribution of suitable habitats of the three raptors can provide useful information and reasonable reference for us to put forward suggestions for their protection and regional management.

Project description:Survival of endangered Himalayan red panda is threatened by ever-growing anthropogenic activities leading to an unprecedented rate of habitat degradation and loss. However, limited studies have been conducted in the context of the spatial distribution of habitats and habitat connectivity for the species in the landscape of Sakteng Wildlife Sanctuary (SWS). Lack of such information remains a challenge while implementing effective and holistic conservation initiatives. Therefore, this study identifies the distribution of potential habitats and their connectivity using maxent and linkage mapper, respectively. Precipitation-related predictor variables exhibited a significant influence on the prediction of habitat distribution. The model predicted 27.7% of the SWS as a potential habitat (fundamental niche). More than 75% of the predicted habitats fall outside the existing core zones where anthropogenic disturbance is relatively high, indicating the need to reassess existing management options. In SWS, 15 core habitats (CH) are predicted which are connected by a least-cost corridor (length µ = 2.91 km) with several pinch points in it. Centrally located CH5 and CH11 are identified as the most important habitat in maintaining overall connectivity within SWS. However, CH located in the peripheries could be equally important in facilitating the transboundary movement of the species. Overall, SWS can play a critical role as a connecting link between the larger landscape of Bhutan and the adjacent Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh in the conservation of Himalayan red panda that exhibits narrow dispersal with special habitat needs. Based on our findings, we recommend initiating GPS/satellite telemetry of the species to enable SWS to understand the precise interaction of Himalayan red panda to widespread herder communities, livestock, and free-roaming dogs dwelling in the same landscape. It will also help to evaluate the functionality of the predicted habitats, linkages, and feasibility of transboundary conservation initiatives.

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Project description:BACKGROUND:The ecosystems across Tibetan Plateau are changing rapidly under the influence of climate warming, which has caused substantial changes in spatial and temporal environmental patterns. Stipa purpurea, as a dominant herbsage resource in alpine steppe, has a great influence on animal husbandry in the Tibetan Plateau. Global warming has been forecasted to continue in the future (2050s, 2070s), questioning the future distribution of S. purpurea and its response to climate change. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling, due to its multiple advantages (e.g. uses presence-only data, performs well with incomplete data, and requires small sample sizes and gaps), has been used to understand species environment relationships and predict species distributions across locations that have not been sampled. RESULTS:Annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, temperature seasonality, altitude, and precipitation during the driest month, significantly affected the distribution of S. purpurea. Only 0.70% of the Tibetan Plateau area included a very highly suitable habitat (habitat suitability [HS] = 0.8-1.0). Highly suitable habitat (HS = 0.6-0.8), moderately suitable habitat (HS = 0.4-0.6), and unsuitable habitat (HS = 0.2-0.4) occupied 6.20, 14.30 and 22.40% of the Tibetan Plateau area, respectively, and the majority (56.40%) of the Tibetan Plateau area constituted a highly unsuitable habitat (HS = 0-0.2). In addition, the response curves of species ecological suitability simulated by generalized additive model nearly corresponded with the response curves generated by the MaxEnt model. CONCLUSIONS:At a temporal scale, the habitat suitability of S. purpurea tends to increase from the 1990s to 2050s, but decline from the 2050s to 2070s. At a spatial scale, the future distribution of S. purpurea will not exhibit sweeping changes and will remain in the central and southeastern regions of the Tibetan Plateau. These results benefit the local animal husbandry and provide evidence for establishing reasonable management practices.

Project description:Species distribution models (SDMs) use presence records to determine the relationship between species occurrence and various environmental variables to create predictive maps describing the species' distribution. The Oscura Mountains Colorado chipmunk (Neotamias quadrivittatus oscuraensis) occurs in central New Mexico and is of conservation concern due to its relict distribution and threats to habitat. We previously created an occupancy model for this taxon, but were concerned that the model may not have adequately captured the ecological factors influencing the chipmunk's distribution because of the data hungry nature of occupancy modeling. MaxEnt is another SDM method that is particularly effective at testing large numbers of variables and handling small sample sizes. Our goal was to create a MaxEnt model for the Oscura Mountains Colorado chipmunk and to compare it with our previous occupancy model for this taxon, either to strengthen our original assessment of the relevant ecological factors or identify additional factors that were not captured by our occupancy model. We created MaxEnt models using occurrence records from baited camera traps and opportunistic surveys. We adjusted model complexity using a novel method for tuning both the regularization multiplier and feature class parameters while also performing variable selection. We compared the distribution maps and variables selected by MaxEnt to the results of our occupancy model for this taxon. The MaxEnt and occupancy models selected similar environmental variables and the overall spatial pattern of occurrence was similar for each model. Likelihood of occurrence was positively related to elevation, piñon woodland vegetation type, and topographic variables associated with escarpments. The overall similarities between the MaxEnt and occupancy models increased our confidence of the ecological factors influencing the distribution of the chipmunk. We conclude that MaxEnt offers advantages for predicting the distribution of rare species, which can help inform conservation actions.

Dataset Information

Predicting the potential distribution of the endangered red panda across its entire range using MaxEnt modeling.

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Predicting the potential distribution of the endangered red panda across its entire range using MaxEnt modeling.

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