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Predicting the Outcomes of New Short-Course Regimens for Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis Using Intrahost and Pharmacokinetic-Pharmacodynamic Modeling.

ABSTRACT: Short-course regimens for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) are urgently needed. Limited data suggest that the new drug bedaquiline (BDQ) may have the potential to shorten MDR-TB treatment to less than 6 months when used in conjunction with standard anti-TB drugs. However, the feasibility of BDQ in shortening MDR-TB treatment duration remains to be established. Mathematical modeling provides a platform to investigate different treatment regimens and predict their efficacy. We developed a mathematical model to capture the immune response to TB inside a human host environment. This model was then combined with a pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model to simulate various short-course BDQ-containing regimens. Our modeling suggests that BDQ could reduce MDR-TB treatment duration to just 18?weeks (4 months) while still maintaining a very high treatment success rate (100% for daily BDQ for 2 weeks, or 95% for daily BDQ for 1 week during the intensive phase). The estimated time to bacterial clearance of these regimens ranges from 27 to 33?days. Our findings provide the justification for empirical evaluation of short-course BDQ-containing regimens. If short-course BDQ-containing regimens are found to improve outcomes, then we anticipate clear cost savings and a subsequent improvement in the efficiency of national TB programs.

SUBMITTER: Doan TN

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6256788 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:This study aimed to predict the impacts of shorter duration treatment regimens for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) on both MDR-TB percentage among new cases and overall MDR-TB cases in the WHO Southeast Asia Region. A deterministic compartmental model was constructed to describe both the transmission of TB and the MDR-TB situation in the Southeast Asia region. The population-level impacts of short-course treatment regimens were compared with the impacts of conventional regimens. Multi-way analysis was used to evaluate the impact by varying programmatic factors (eligibility for short-course MDR-TB treatment, treatment initiation, and drug susceptibility test (DST) coverage). The model predicted that overall TB incidence will be reduced from 246 (95% credible intervals (CrI), 221-275) per 100,000 population in 2020 to 239 (95% CrI, 215-267) per 100,000 population in 2035, with a modest reduction of 2.8% (95% CrI, 2.7%-2.9%). Despite the slight reduction in overall TB infections, the model predicted that the MDR-TB percentage among newly notified TB infections will remain steady, with 2.4% (95% CrI, 2.1-2.9) in 2020 and 2.5% (95% CrI, 2.3-3.1) in 2035, using conventional MDR-TB treatment. With the introduction of short-course regimens to treat MDR-TB, the development of resistance can be slowed by 38.6% (95% confidence intervals (CI), 35.9-41.3) reduction in MDR-TB case number, and 37.6% (95% CI, 34.9-40.3) reduction in MDR-TB percentage among new TB infections over the 30-year period compared with the baseline using the standard treatment regimen. The multi-way analysis showed eligibility for short-course treatment and treatment initiation greatly influenced the impacts of short-course treatment regimens on reductions in MDR-TB cases and percentage resistance among new infections. Policies which promote the expansion of short-course regimens and early MDR-TB treatment initiation should be considered along with other interventions to tackle antimicrobial resistance in the region.

Project description:Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is a major threat to global TB control. MDR-TB treatment regimens typically have a high pill burden, last 20 months or more and often lead to unsatisfactory outcomes. A 9-11 month regimen with seven antibiotics has shown high success rates among selected MDR-TB patients in different settings and is conditionally recommended by the World Health Organization.We construct a transmission-dynamic model of TB to estimate the likely impact of a shorter MDR-TB regimen when applied in a low HIV prevalence region of Uzbekistan (Karakalpakstan) with high rates of drug resistance, good access to diagnostics and a well-established community-based MDR-TB treatment programme providing treatment to around 400 patients. The model incorporates acquisition of additional drug resistance and incorrect regimen assignment. It is calibrated to local epidemiology and used to compare the impact of shorter treatment against four alternative programmatic interventions.Based on empirical outcomes among MDR-TB patients and assuming no improvement in treatment success rates, the shorter regimen reduced MDR-TB incidence from 15.2 to 9.7 cases per 100,000 population per year and MDR-TB mortality from 3.0 to 1.7 deaths per 100,000 per year, achieving comparable or greater gains than the alternative interventions. No significant increase in the burden of higher levels of resistance was predicted. Effects are probably conservative given that the regimen is likely to improve success rates.In addition to benefits to individual patients, we find that shorter MDR-TB treatment regimens also have the potential to reduce transmission of resistant strains. These findings are in the epidemiological setting of treatment availability being an important bottleneck due to high numbers of patients being eligible for treatment, and may differ in other contexts. The high proportion of MDR-TB with additional antibiotic resistance simulated was not exacerbated by programmatic responses and greater gains may be possible in contexts where the regimen is more widely applicable.

Project description:Optimizing antibiotic combinations is promising to combat multidrug-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa This study aimed to systematically evaluate synergistic bacterial killing and prevention of resistance by carbapenem and aminoglycoside combinations and to rationally optimize combination dosage regimens via a mechanism-based mathematical model (MBM). We studied monotherapies and combinations of imipenem with tobramycin or amikacin against three difficult-to-treat double-resistant clinical P. aeruginosa isolates. Viable-count profiles of total and resistant populations were quantified in 48-h static-concentration time-kill studies (inoculum, 107.5 CFU/ml). We rationally optimized combination dosage regimens via MBM and Monte Carlo simulations against isolate FADDI-PA088 (MIC of imipenem [MICimipenem] of 16 mg/liter and MICtobramycin of 32 mg/liter, i.e., both 98th percentiles according to the EUCAST database). Against this isolate, imipenem (1.5× MIC) combined with 1 to 2 mg/liter tobramycin (MIC, 32 mg/liter) or amikacin (MIC, 4 mg/liter) yielded ≥2-log10 more killing than the most active monotherapy at 48 h and prevented resistance. For all three strains, synergistic killing without resistance was achieved by ≥0.88× MICimipenem in combination with a median of 0.75× MICtobramycin (range, 0.032× to 2.0× MICtobramycin) or 0.50× MICamikacin (range, 0.25× to 0.50× MICamikacin). The MBM indicated that aminoglycosides significantly enhanced the imipenem target site concentration up to 3-fold; achieving 50% of this synergistic effect required aminoglycoside concentrations of 1.34 mg/liter (if the aminoglycoside MIC was 4 mg/liter) and 4.88 mg/liter (for MICs of 8 to 32 mg/liter). An optimized combination regimen (continuous infusion of imipenem at 5 g/day plus a 0.5-h infusion with 7 mg/kg of body weight tobramycin) was predicted to achieve >2.0-log10 killing and prevent regrowth at 48 h in 90.3% of patients (median bacterial killing, >4.0 log10 CFU/ml) against double-resistant isolate FADDI-PA088 and therefore was highly promising.

Project description:IntroductionTanzania is adapting a shortened injectable-free multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) regimen, comprising new drugs such as bedaquiline and delamanid and repurposed drugs such as clofazimine and linezolid. The regimen is implemented using a pragmatic prospective cohort study within the National TB and Leprosy Programme and is accompanied by a process evaluation. The process evaluation aims to unpack the implementation processes, their outcomes and the moderating factors in order to understand the clinical effectiveness of the regimen. This protocol describes the methods employed in understanding the implementation processes of the new MDR-TB regimen in 15 regions of Tanzania.MethodsThis study adopts a concurrent mixed-methods design. Using multiple data collection tools, we capture information on: implementation outcomes, stakeholder response to the intervention and the influence of contextual factors. Data will be collected from the 22 health facilities categorised as dispensaries, health centres, district hospitals and referral hospitals. Health workers (n=132) and patients (n=220) will fill a structured questionnaire. For each category of health facility, we will conduct five focus group discussions and in-depth interviews (n=45) for health workers. Participant observations (n=9) and review documents (n=22) will be conducted using structured checklists. Data will be collected at two points over a period of 1 year. We will analyse quantitative data using descriptive and inferential statistical methods. Thematic analysis will be used for qualitative data.Ethics and disseminationThis study received ethical approval from National Institute of Medical research (NIMR), Ref. NIMR/HQ/R.8a/Vol.IX/3269 and from the Mbeya Medical Research and Ethics Review Committee, Ref. SZEC-2439/R.A/V.I/38. Our findings are expected to inform the wider implementation of the new MDR-TB regimen as it is rolled out countrywide. Dissemination of findings will be through publications, conferences, workshops and implementation manuals for scaling up MDR-TB treatments.

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Predicting the Outcomes of New Short-Course Regimens for Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis Using Intrahost and Pharmacokinetic-Pharmacodynamic Modeling.

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