Development and validation of a novel risk score for the detection of insignificant prostate cancer in unscreened patient cohorts.
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ABSTRACT: Background
Active surveillance is recommended for insignificant prostate cancer (PCa). Tools exist to identify suitable candidates using clinical variables. We aimed to develop and validate a novel risk score (NRS) predicting which patients are harbouring insignificant PCa.Methods
We used prospectively collected data from 8040 consecutive unscreened patients who underwent radical prostatectomy between 2006 and 2016. Of these, data from 2799 patients with Gleason 3 + 3 on biopsy were used to develop a multivariate model predicting the presence of insignificant PC at radical prostatectomy (ERSPC updated definition3: Gleason 3 + 3 only, index tumour volume < 1.3 cm3 and total tumour volume < 2.5 cm3). This was used to develop a novel risk score (NRS) which was validated in an equivalent independent cohort (n = 441). We compared the accuracy of existing predictive tools and the NRS in these cohorts.Results
The NRS (incorporating PSA, prostate volume, age, clinical T Stage, percent and number of positive biopsy cores) outperformed pre-existing predictive tools in derivation and validation cohorts (AUC 0.755 and 0.76, respectively). Selection bias due to analysis of a surgical cohort is acknowledged.Conclusions
The advantage of the NRS is that it can be tailored to patient characteristics and may prove to be valuable tool in clinical decision-making.
SUBMITTER: Dutto L
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6288120 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:ObjectiveIn patients with TIA and ischemic stroke, we validated the total small vessel disease (SVD) score by determining its prognostic value for recurrent stroke.MethodsTwo independent prospective studies were conducted, one comprising predominantly Caucasian patients with TIA/ischemic stroke (Oxford Vascular Study [OXVASC]) and one predominantly Chinese patients with ischemic stroke (University of Hong Kong [HKU]). Cerebral MRI was performed and assessed for lacunes, microbleeds, white matter hyperintensities (WMH), and perivascular spaces (PVS). Predictive value of total SVD score for risk of recurrent stroke was determined and potential refinements considered.ResultsIn 2,002 patients with TIA/ischemic stroke (OXVASC n = 1,028, HKU n = 974, 6,924 patient-years follow-up), a higher score was associated with an increased risk of recurrent ischemic stroke (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] per unit increase: 1.32, 1.16-1.51, p < 0.0001; c statistic 0.61, 0.56-0.65, p < 0.0001) and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) (HR 1.54, 1.11-2.13, p = 0.009; c statistic 0.65, 0.54-0.76, p = 0.006). A higher score predicted recurrent stroke in SVD and non-SVD TIA/ischemic stroke subtypes (c statistic 0.67, 0.59-0.74, p < 0.0001 and 0.60, 0.55-0.65, p < 0.0001). Including burden of microbleeds and WMH and adjusting the cutoff of basal ganglia PVS potentially improved predictive power for ICH (c statistic 0.71, 0.60-0.81, phet = 0.45), but not for recurrent ischemic stroke (c statistic 0.60, 0.56-0.65, phet = 0.76) on internal validation.ConclusionsThe total SVD score has predictive value for recurrent stroke after TIA/ischemic stroke. Prediction of recurrence in patients with nonlacunar events highlights the potential role of SVD in wider stroke etiology.
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Project description:BackgroundTo evaluate the relationship between PSA testing history and high-risk disease among older men diagnosed with prostate cancer.MethodsRecords from 1993 to 2014 were reviewed for men who underwent radiotherapy for prostate cancer at age 75 years or older. Patients were classified into one of four groups based on PSA-testing history: (1) no PSA testing; (2) incomplete/ineffective PSA testing; (3) PSA testing; or (4) cannot be determined. Outcomes of interest were National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) risk group (that is, low, intermediate or high risk) and biopsy grade at diagnosis. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine the association between PSA testing history and high-risk cancer.ResultsPSA-testing history was available in 274 (94.5%) of 290 subjects meeting study criteria. In total, 148 men (54.0%) underwent PSA testing with follow-up biopsy, 72 (26.3%) underwent PSA testing without appropriate follow-up, and 54 men (19.7%) did not undergo PSA testing. Patients who underwent PSA testing were significantly less likely to be diagnosed with NCCN high-risk cancer (23.0% vs 51.6%, P<0.001). On multivariable analysis, men with no/incomplete PSA testing had more than three-fold increased odds of high-risk disease at diagnosis (odds ratio 3.39, 95% confidence interval 1.96-5.87, P<0.001) as compared to the tested population.ConclusionsOlder men who underwent no PSA testing or incomplete testing were significantly more likely to be diagnosed with high-risk prostate cancer than those who were previously screened. It is reasonable to consider screening in healthy older men likely to benefit from early detection and treatment.
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