Dataset Information

Epidemiological characteristics and determinants of dengue transmission during epidemic and non-epidemic years in Fortaleza, Brazil: 2011-2015.

ABSTRACT:

Background

After being eliminated during the 1950s, dengue reemerged in Brazil in the 1980s. Since then, incidence of the disease has increased, as serotypes move within and between cities. The co-circulation of multiple serotypes contributes to cycles of epidemic and interepidemic years, and a seasonal pattern of transmission is observed annually. Little is known regarding possible differences in the epidemiology of dengue under epidemic and interepidemic scenarios. This study addresses this gap and aims to assess the epidemiological characteristics and determinants of epidemic and interepidemic dengue transmission, utilizing data from the 5th largest city in Brazil (Fortaleza), at fine spatial and temporal scales.

Methods/principal findings

Longitudinal models of monthly rates of confirmed dengue cases were used to estimate the differential contribution of contextual factors to dengue transmission in Fortaleza between 2011 and 2015. Models were stratified by annual climatological schedules and periods of interepidemic and epidemic transmission, controlling for social, economic, structural, entomological, and environmental factors. Results revealed distinct seasonal patterns between interepidemic and epidemic years, with persistent transmission after June in interepidemic years. Dengue was strongly associated with violence across strata, and with poverty and irregular garbage collection during periods of low transmission, but not with other indicators of public service provision or structural deprivation. Scrapyards and sites associated with tire storage were linked to incidence differentially between seasons, with the strongest associations during transitional precipitation periods. Hierarchical clustering analysis suggests that the dengue burden concentrates in the southern periphery of the city, particularly during periods of minimal transmission.

Conclusions/significance

Our findings have direct programmatic implications. Vector control operations must be sustained after June even in non-epidemic years. More specifically, scrapyards and sites associated with tires (strongly associated with incidence during periods of minimal transmission), require sustained entomological surveillance, particularly during interepidemic intervals and in the urban periphery. Intersectoral collaborations that address urban violence are critical for facilitating the regular activities of vector control agents.

SUBMITTER: MacCormack-Gelles B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6292645 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Epidemiological characteristics and determinants of dengue transmission during epidemic and non-epidemic years in Fortaleza, Brazil: 2011-2015.

MacCormack-Gelles Benjamin B Lima Neto Antonio S AS Sousa Geziel S GS Nascimento Osmar J OJ Machado Marcia M T MMT Wilson Mary E ME Castro Marcia C MC

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20181203 12

<h4>Background</h4>After being eliminated during the 1950s, dengue reemerged in Brazil in the 1980s. Since then, incidence of the disease has increased, as serotypes move within and between cities. The co-circulation of multiple serotypes contributes to cycles of epidemic and interepidemic years, and a seasonal pattern of transmission is observed annually. Little is known regarding possible differences in the epidemiology of dengue under epidemic and interepidemic scenarios. This study addresses ...[more]

PMID: 30507968

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Project description:BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) remains a public health problem, despite recent achievements in reducing incidence and mortality rates. In Brazil, these achievements were above the worldwide average, but marked by large regional heterogeneities. In Fortaleza (5th largest city in Brazil), the tuberculosis cure rate has been declining and treatment abandonment has been increasing in the past decade, despite a reduction in incidence and an increase in directly observed therapy (DOT). These trends put efforts to eliminate tuberculosis at risk. We therefore sought to determine social and programmatic determinants of tuberculosis incidence and treatment abandonment in Fortaleza.MethodsWe analyzed sociodemographic and clinical data for all new tuberculosis cases notified in the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) from Fortaleza between 2007 and 2014. We calculated incidence rates for 117 neighborhoods in Fortaleza, assessed their spatial clustering, and used spatial regression models to quantify associations between neighborhood-level covariates and incidence rates. We used hierarchical logistic regression models to evaluate how individual- and neighborhood-level covariates predicted tuberculosis treatment abandonment.ResultsThere were 12,338 new cases reported during the study period. Case rates across neighborhoods were significantly positively clustered in two low-income areas close to the city center. In an adjusted model, tuberculosis rates were significantly higher in neighborhoods with lower literacy, higher sewerage access and homicide rates, and a greater proportion of self-reported black residents. Treatment was abandoned in 1901 cases (15.4%), a rate that rose by 71% between 2007 and 2014. Abandonment was significantly associated with many individual sociodemographic and clinical factors. Notably, being recommended for DOT was protective for those who completed DOT, but associated with abandonment for those who did not.ConclusionLow socioeconomic status areas have higher tuberculosis rates, and low socioeconomic individuals have higher risk of treatment abandonment, in Fortaleza. Treatment abandonment rates are growing despite the advent of universal DOT recommendations in Brazil. Proactive social policies, and active contact tracing to find missed cases, may help reduce the tuberculosis burden in this setting.

Project description:Leprosy is endemic in large part of Brazil with 28,761 new patients in 2015, the second largest number worldwide and reaches 9/10.000 in highly endemic regions and 2.7/10.000 in the city of Fortaleza, Ceará, Northeast Brazil. For better understanding of risk factors for leprosy transmission, we conducted an epidemiologic study supplemented by 17 locus VNTR and SNP 1-4 typing of Mycobacterium leprae in skin biopsy samples from new multibacillary (MB) patients diagnosed at a reference center in 2009 and 2010. Among the 1,519 new patients detected during the study period, 998 (65.7%) were MB and we performed DNA extraction and genotyping on 160 skin biopsy samples, resulting in 159 (16%) good multilocus VNTR types. Thirty-eight of these patients also provided VNTR types from M. leprae in nasal swabs. The SNP-Type was obtained for 157 patients and 87% were of type 4. Upon consideration all VNTR markers, 156 different genotypes and three pairs with identical genotypes were observed; no epidemiologic relation could be observed between individuals in these pairs. Considerable variability in differentiating index (DI) was observed between the different markers and the four with highest DI [(AT)15, (TA)18, (AT)17 and (GAA)21] frequently demonstrated differences in copy number when comparing genotypes from both type of samples. Excluding these markers from analysis resulted in 83 genotypes, 20 of which included 96 of the patients (60.3%). These clusters were composed of two (n = 8), three (n = 6), four (n = 1), five (n = 2), six (n = 1), 19 (n = 1) and 23 (n = 23) individuals and suggests that recent transmission is contributing to the maintenance of leprosy in Fortaleza. When comparing epidemiological and clinical variables among patients within clustered or with unique M. leprae genotypes, a positive bacterial index in skin biopsies and knowledge of working with someone with the disease were significantly associated with clustering. A tendency to belong to a cluster was observed with later notification of disease (mean value of 3.4 months) and having disability grade 2. A tendency for lack of clustering was observed for patients who reported to have lived with another leprosy case but this might be due to lack of inclusion of household contacts in the study. Although clusters were spread over the city, kernel analysis revealed that some of the patients belonging to the two major clusters were spatially related to some neighborhoods that report poverty and high disease incidence in children. Finally, inclusion of genotypes from nasal swabs might be warranted. A major limitation of the study is that sample size of 160 patients from a two year period represents only 15% of the new patients and this could have weakened statistical outcomes. This is the first molecular epidemiology study of leprosy in Brazil and although the high clustering level suggests that recent transmission is the major cause of disease in Fortaleza; the existence of two large clusters needs further investigation.

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Dataset Information

Epidemiological characteristics and determinants of dengue transmission during epidemic and non-epidemic years in Fortaleza, Brazil: 2011-2015.

Background

Methods/principal findings

Conclusions/significance

Publications

Epidemiological characteristics and determinants of dengue transmission during epidemic and non-epidemic years in Fortaleza, Brazil: 2011-2015.

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