Dataset Information

Propensity for COVID-19 severe epidemic among the populations of the neighborhoods of Fortaleza, Brazil, in 2020.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The state of Ceará (Northeast Brazil) has shown a high incidence of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), and most of the cases that were diagnosed during the epidemic originated from the capital Fortaleza. Monitoring the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic is of strategic importance and requires the use of sensitive tools for epidemiological surveillance, including consistent analyses that allow the recognition of areas with a greater propensity for increased severity throughout the cycle of the epidemic. This study aims to classify neighborhoods in the city of Fortaleza according to their propensity for a severe epidemic of COVID-19 in 2020.

Methods

We conducted an ecological study within the geographical area of the 119 neighborhoods located in the city of Fortaleza. To define the main transmission networks (infection chains), we assumed that the spatial diffusion of the COVID-19 epidemic was influenced by population mobility. To measure the propensity for a severe epidemic, we calculated the infectivity burden (I_tyB), infection burden (I_onB), and population epidemic vulnerability index (PEVI). The propensity score for a severe epidemic in the neighborhoods of the city of Fortaleza was estimated by combining the I_onB and PEVI.

Results

The neighborhoods with the highest propensity for a severe COVID-19 epidemic were Aldeota, Cais do Porto, Centro, Edson Queiroz, Vicente Pinzon, Jose de Alencar, Presidente Kennedy, Papicu, Vila Velha, Antonio Bezerra, and Cambeba. Importantly, we found that the propensity for a COVID-19 epidemic was high in areas with differing socioeconomic profiles. These areas include a very poor neighborhood situated on the western border of the city (Vila Velha), neighborhoods characterized by a large number of subnormal agglomerates in the Cais do Porto region (Vicente Pinzon), and those located in the oldest central area of the city, where despite the wealth, low-income groups have remained (Aldeota and the adjacent Edson Queiroz).

Conclusion

Although measures against COVID-19 should be applied to the entire municipality of Fortaleza, the classification of neighborhoods generated through this study can help improve the specificity and efficiency of these measures.

SUBMITTER: Braga JU

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7527297 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundAfter being eliminated during the 1950s, dengue reemerged in Brazil in the 1980s. Since then, incidence of the disease has increased, as serotypes move within and between cities. The co-circulation of multiple serotypes contributes to cycles of epidemic and interepidemic years, and a seasonal pattern of transmission is observed annually. Little is known regarding possible differences in the epidemiology of dengue under epidemic and interepidemic scenarios. This study addresses this gap and aims to assess the epidemiological characteristics and determinants of epidemic and interepidemic dengue transmission, utilizing data from the 5th largest city in Brazil (Fortaleza), at fine spatial and temporal scales.Methods/principal findingsLongitudinal models of monthly rates of confirmed dengue cases were used to estimate the differential contribution of contextual factors to dengue transmission in Fortaleza between 2011 and 2015. Models were stratified by annual climatological schedules and periods of interepidemic and epidemic transmission, controlling for social, economic, structural, entomological, and environmental factors. Results revealed distinct seasonal patterns between interepidemic and epidemic years, with persistent transmission after June in interepidemic years. Dengue was strongly associated with violence across strata, and with poverty and irregular garbage collection during periods of low transmission, but not with other indicators of public service provision or structural deprivation. Scrapyards and sites associated with tire storage were linked to incidence differentially between seasons, with the strongest associations during transitional precipitation periods. Hierarchical clustering analysis suggests that the dengue burden concentrates in the southern periphery of the city, particularly during periods of minimal transmission.Conclusions/significanceOur findings have direct programmatic implications. Vector control operations must be sustained after June even in non-epidemic years. More specifically, scrapyards and sites associated with tires (strongly associated with incidence during periods of minimal transmission), require sustained entomological surveillance, particularly during interepidemic intervals and in the urban periphery. Intersectoral collaborations that address urban violence are critical for facilitating the regular activities of vector control agents.

Project description:BackgroundFortaleza (Brazil) is high endemic for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), tuberculosis (TB) and leprosy. These three diseases share respiratory droplets through coughing or sneezing as the main mode of transmission but differ in incubation time, with COVID-19 having a short and leprosy a long incubation time. Consequently, contacts of a patient are at higher risk of infection and developing these diseases. There might be scope for combined preventive measures, but a better understanding of the geographical distribution and relevant socioeconomic risk factors of the three diseases is needed first. This study aims to describe the geographic distribution of COVID-19, TB and leprosy incidence and to identify common socioeconomic risk factors.MethodsThe total number of new cases of COVID-19, TB and leprosy, as well as socioeconomic and demographic variables, were retrieved from official registers. The geographical distribution of COVID-19, TB and leprosy rates per neighbourhood was visualised in Quantum GIS, and spatial autocorrelation was measured with Moran's I in GeoDa. A spatial regression model was applied to understand the association between COVID-19, TB, leprosy rates, and socioeconomic factors.ResultsCOVID-19 and TB showed a more homogenous distribution, whereas leprosy is located more in the south and west of Fortaleza. One neighbourhood (Pedras) in the southeast was identified as high endemic for all three diseases. Literacy was a socioeconomic risk factor for all three diseases: a high literacy rate increases the risk of COVID-19, and a low literacy rate (i.e., illiteracy) increases the risk of TB and leprosy. In addition, high income was associated with COVID-19, while low income with TB.ConclusionsDespite the similar mode of transmission, COVID-19, TB and leprosy show a different distribution of cases in Fortaleza. In addition, associated risk factors are related to wealth in COVID-19 and to poverty in TB and leprosy. These findings may support policymakers in developing (partially combined) primary and secondary prevention considering the efficient use of resources.

Project description:BackgroundHigh levels of serum interleukin-6 (IL-6) correlate with disease severity in COVID-19. We hypothesized that tocilizumab (a recombinant humanized anti-IL-6 receptor) could improve outcomes in selected patients with severe worsening COVID-19 pneumonia and high inflammatory parameters.MethodsThe TOCICOVID study included a prospective cohort of patients aged 16-80 years with severe (requiring > 6 L/min of oxygen therapy to obtain Sp02 > 94%) rapidly deteriorating (increase by ≥ 3 L/min of oxygen flow within the previous 12 h) COVID-19 pneumonia with ≥ 5 days of symptoms and C-reactive protein levels > 40 mg/L. They entered a compassionate use program of treatment with intravenous tocilizumab (8 mg/kg with a maximum of 800 mg per infusion; and if needed a second infusion 24 to 72 h later). A control group was retrospectively selected with the same inclusion criteria. Outcomes were assessed at D28 using inverse probability of treatment weighted (IPTW) methodology.ResultsAmong the 96 patients included (81% male, mean (SD) age: 60 (12.5) years), underlying conditions, baseline disease severity, and concomitant medications were broadly similar between the tocilizumab (n = 49) and the control (n = 47) groups. In the IPTW analysis, treatment with tocilizumab was associated with a reduced need for overall ventilatory support (49 vs. 89%, wHR: 0.39 [0.25-0.56]; p < 0.001). Albeit lacking statistical significance, there was a substantial trend towards a reduction of mechanical ventilation (31% vs. 45%; wHR: 0.58 [0.36-0.94]; p = 0.026). However, tocilizumab did not improve overall survival (wHR = 0.68 [0.31-1.748], p = 0.338). Among the 85 (89%) patients still alive at D28, patients treated with tocilizumab had a higher rate of oxygen withdrawal (82% vs. 73.5%, wHR = 1.66 [1.17-2.37], p = 0.005), with a shorter delay before being weaned of oxygen therapy (mean 11 vs. 16 days; p < 0.001). At D28, the rate of patients discharged from hospital was higher in the tocilizumab group (70% vs. 40%, wHR = 1.82 [1.22-2.75]; p = 0.003). The levels of CRP and fibrinogen post therapy (p < 0.001 for both variables) were significantly lower in the tocilizumab group (interaction test, mixed model). Rates of neutropenia (35% vs. 0%; p < 0.001) were higher in the tocilizumab group, yet rates of infections (22% vs. 38%, p = 0.089) including ventilator-acquired pneumonia (8% vs. 26%, p = 0.022) were higher in the control group.ConclusionThese data could be helpful for the design of future trials aiming to counter COVID-19-induced inflammation, especially before patients require admission to the intensive care unit.