Dataset Information

A Risk Calculator to Predict the Individual Risk of Conversion From Subthreshold Bipolar Symptoms to Bipolar Disorder I or II in Youth.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:Youth with subthreshold mania are at increased risk of conversion to bipolar disorder (BP) I/II. Predictors for conversion have been published for the group as a whole. However, risk factors are heterogeneous, indicating the need for personalized risk assessment. METHOD:One hundred forty youth with BP not otherwise specified (BP-NOS; 6-17 years old) followed through the Course and Outcome of Bipolar Youth (COBY) study with at least 1 follow-up assessment before conversion to BP-I/II were included. Youths were assessed on average every 7 months (median 11.5 years) using standard instruments. Risk predictors reported in the literature were used to build a 5-year risk calculator. Discrimination was measured using the time-dependent area under the curve after 1,000 bootstrap resamples. Calibration was evaluated by comparing observed with predicted probability of conversion. External validation was performed using an independent sample of 58 youths with BP-NOS recruited from the Pittsburgh Bipolar Offspring Study. RESULTS:Seventy-five (53.6%) COBY youths with BP-NOS converted to BP-I/II, of which 57 (76.0%) converted within 5 years. Earlier-onset BP-NOS, familial hypomania/mania, and high mania, anxiety, and mood lability symptoms were important predictors of conversion. The calculator showed excellent consistency between the predicted and observed risks of conversion, good discrimination between converters and non-converters (area under the curve 0.71, CI 0.67-0.74), and a proportionally increasing rate of converters at each successive risk class. Discrimination in the external validation sample was good (area under the curve 0.75). CONCLUSION:If replicated, the risk calculator would provide a useful tool to predict personalized risk of conversion from subsyndromal mania to BP-I/II and inform individualized interventions and research.

SUBMITTER: Birmaher B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6293466 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Risk Calculator to Predict the Individual Risk of Conversion From Subthreshold Bipolar Symptoms to Bipolar Disorder I or II in Youth.

Birmaher Boris B Merranko John A JA Goldstein Tina R TR Gill Mary Kay MK Goldstein Benjamin I BI Hower Heather H Yen Shirley S Hafeman Danella D Strober Michael M Diler Rasim S RS Axelson David D Ryan Neal D ND Keller Martin B MB

Journal of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry 20180807 10

<h4>Objective</h4>Youth with subthreshold mania are at increased risk of conversion to bipolar disorder (BP) I/II. Predictors for conversion have been published for the group as a whole. However, risk factors are heterogeneous, indicating the need for personalized risk assessment.<h4>Method</h4>One hundred forty youth with BP not otherwise specified (BP-NOS; 6-17 years old) followed through the Course and Outcome of Bipolar Youth (COBY) study with at least 1 follow-up assessment before conversio ...[more]

PMID: 30274650

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Project description:ImportanceEarly identification of individuals at high risk for the onset of bipolar spectrum disorder (BPSD) is key from both a clinical and research perspective. While previous work has identified the presence of a bipolar prodrome, the predictive implications for the individual have not been assessed, to date.ObjectiveTo build a risk calculator to predict the 5-year onset of BPSD in youth at familial risk for BPSD.Design, setting, and participantsThe Pittsburgh Bipolar Offspring Study is an ongoing community-based longitudinal cohort investigation of offspring of parents with bipolar I or II (and community controls), recruited between November 2001 and July 2007, with a median follow-up period of more than 9 years. Recruitment has ended, but follow-up is ongoing. The present analysis included offspring of parents with bipolar I or II (aged 6-17 years) who had not yet developed BPSD at baseline.Main outcomes and measuresThis study tested the degree to which a time-to-event model, including measures of mood and anxiety, general psychosocial functioning, age at mood disorder onset in the bipolar parent, and age at each visit, predicted new-onset BPSD. To fully use longitudinal data, the study assessed each visit separately, clustering within individuals. Discrimination was measured using the time-dependent area under the curve (AUC), predicting 5-year risk; internal validation was performed using 1000 bootstrapped resamples. Calibration was assessed by comparing observed vs predicted probability of new-onset BPSD.ResultsThere were 412 at-risk offspring (202 [49.0%] female), with a mean (SD) visit age of 12.0 (3.5) years and a mean (SD) age at new-onset BPSD of 14.2 (4.5) years. Among them, 54 (13.1%) developed BPSD during follow-up (18 with BD I or II); these participants contributed a total of 1058 visits, 67 (6.3%) of which preceded new-onset BPSD within the next 5 years. Using internal validation to account for overfitting, the model provided good discrimination between converting vs nonconverting visits (AUC, 0.76; bootstrapped 95% CI, 0.71-0.82). Important univariate predictors of outcome (AUC range, 0.66-0.70) were dimensional measures of mania, depression, anxiety, and mood lability; psychosocial functioning; and parental age at mood disorder.Conclusions and relevanceThis risk calculator provides a practical tool for assessing the probability that a youth at familial risk for BPSD will develop new-onset BPSD within the next 5 years. Such a tool may be used by clinicians to inform frequency of monitoring and treatment options and for research studies to better identify potential participants at ultra high risk of conversion.

Project description:OBJECTIVE:Depression and brief periods of manic symptoms are linked to a significant risk of progression to bipolar disorder (BD) in children who have a first-degree relative with BD I or II. However, little evidence exists to guide the pharmacologic management of children with these high-risk phenotypes. We propose a pharmacological treatment algorithm for high-risk youth and present results on its use in a study of children with a first-degree relative with BD. METHODS:Subjects were 40 youth (mean 12.7 years, range 9-17 years) who had (1) a first-degree relative with lifetime history of BD I or II, (2) DSM-IV-TR diagnoses of BD not otherwise specified, major depressive disorder or cyclothymic disorder, and (3) active symptoms of depression, mania, or hypomania. Participants and their families were enrolled in a randomized trial examining the effects of two psychosocial interventions on the 1-year course of mood disorder. At study intake, participants received a psychiatric evaluation and were offered medications or had existing medications optimized to decrease symptom severity. During the 1-year study, psychiatrists treated participants using a medication algorithm to treat depressive or manic symptoms as well as comorbid anxiety and/or attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder. RESULTS:At study entry, 25 of 40 (62.5%) of the participants were taking at least one psychiatric medication. At 1 year, nearly an identical proportion were taking medications (22 of 35, 63%). Independent ratings indicated that in 84.7% of the study visits, physicians maintained adherence to the algorithm. No patients experienced antidepressant- or stimulant-induced mania during the study. CONCLUSIONS:An algorithmic approach to pharmacologic interventions may aid in the management of youth (i.e., age <18) at high risk for BD. Future studies should compare outcomes in high-risk patients receiving algorithm-prescribed treatment versus those receiving treatment as usual. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION INFORMATION:Early Family-Focused Treatment for Youth at Risk for Bipolar Disorder; www.clinicaltrials.gov/ ; NCT00943085.

Dataset Information

A Risk Calculator to Predict the Individual Risk of Conversion From Subthreshold Bipolar Symptoms to Bipolar Disorder I or II in Youth.

Publications

A Risk Calculator to Predict the Individual Risk of Conversion From Subthreshold Bipolar Symptoms to Bipolar Disorder I or II in Youth.

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