Dataset Information

Continuously Updated Estimation of Heart Transplant Waitlist Mortality.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Heart transplant allocation in the United States is made on the basis of coarse tiers, defined by mechanical circulatory devices and therapy for advanced heart failure, updated infrequently as a patient's condition deteriorates. Thus, many patients die awaiting heart transplantation. What is needed is a tool that continuously updates risk of mortality as a patient's condition changes to inform clinical decision making. OBJECTIVES:This study sought to develop a decision aid that aggregates adverse events and measures of end-organ function into a continuously updated waitlist mortality estimate. METHODS:From 2008 to 2013, 414 patients were listed for heart transplantation at Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio. The endpoint was waitlist death. Pre-listing patient characteristics and events and laboratory results during listing were analyzed. At each event or measurement change, mortality was recomputed from the resulting model. RESULTS:There were 77 waitlist deaths, with 1- and 4-year survival of 85% and 57%, respectively. When time-varying events and measurements were incorporated into a mortality model, pre-listing patient characteristics became nonsignificant. Neurological events (hazard ratio [HR]: 13.5; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.63 to 23.8), new requirement for dialysis (HR: 3.67; 95% CI: 1.88 to 7.14), more respiratory complications (HR: 1.79 per episode; 95% CI: 1.23 to 2.59), and higher serum bilirubin (p < 0.0001) and creatinine (p < 0.0001) yielded continuously updated estimates of patient-specific mortality across the waitlist period. CONCLUSIONS:Mortality risk for patients with advanced heart failure who are listed for transplantation is related to adverse events and end-organ dysfunction that change over time. A continuously updated mortality estimate, combined with clinical evaluation, may inform status changes that could reduce mortality on the heart transplant waiting list.

SUBMITTER: Blackstone EH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6298792 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Continuously Updated Estimation of Heart Transplant Waitlist Mortality.

Blackstone Eugene H EH Rajeswaran Jeevanantham J Cruz Vincent B VB Hsich Eileen M EM Koprivanac Marijan M Smedira Nicholas G NG Hoercher Katherine J KJ Thuita Lucy L Starling Randall C RC

Journal of the American College of Cardiology 20180801 6

<h4>Background</h4>Heart transplant allocation in the United States is made on the basis of coarse tiers, defined by mechanical circulatory devices and therapy for advanced heart failure, updated infrequently as a patient's condition deteriorates. Thus, many patients die awaiting heart transplantation. What is needed is a tool that continuously updates risk of mortality as a patient's condition changes to inform clinical decision making.<h4>Objectives</h4>This study sought to develop a decision ...[more]

PMID: 30071995

Similar Datasets

Project description:ImportanceUnder the current Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services guidelines, there is incentivization to optimize posttransplant outcomes regardless of mortality among patients on the waitlist and transplant rates; few data exist with regard to transplant center acceptance practices and survival to heart transplant.ObjectivesTo evaluate the extent of variability in organ acceptance practices in the US and whether this center-level behavior is associated with heart transplant candidate survival.Design, setting, and participantsIn this retrospective cohort study, the US National Transplant Registry was queried for all match runs of adult candidates listed for isolated heart transplant between May 1, 2007, and March 31, 2017. Data analysis was conducted from October 30, 2018, to May 1, 2019. The final cohort included 93 transplant centers, 19 703 donors, and 9628 candidates.Main outcomes and measuresCenter acceptance rates for heart allografts offered to the highest-priority candidates, association between center acceptance rate and mortality among patients on the waitlist, and posttransplant outcomes between candidates who accepted their first-rank offers vs those who accepted previously declined offers.ResultsAmong 19 703 unique organ offers, 6302 hearts (32.0%) were accepted for first-rank candidates. After adjustment for donor, candidate, and geographic covariates, transplant centers varied in acceptance rates (12.3%-61.5%) of offers made to first-rank candidates. Higher acceptance rates were associated with lower cumulative incidence of 1-year mortality among patients on the waitlist. For every 10% increase in adjusted center acceptance rate, the risk of mortality decreased by 27% (subdistribution hazard ratio, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.67-0.80). No statistically significant difference was observed in 5-year adjusted posttransplant patient survival (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.94-1.11) and graft failure (subdistribution hazard ratio; 0.95; 95% CI, 0.83-1.09) between hearts accepted at the first-rank compared with lower-rank positions.Conclusions and relevanceVariability in heart allograft acceptance rates appears to exist among transplant centers, with candidates listed at lower acceptance rate centers being more likely to experience mortality while on the waitlist. Comparable posttransplant survival suggests that allografts that were declined as a first offer perform as well as those that were accepted at their first offer. These findings suggest that organ acceptance rate or time to transplant from being added to the waitlist may be an additional measure of heart transplant program performance.

Project description:ImportanceLittle is known about geographic variation in the outcomes of adult patients listed for heart transplantation in the US. Identifying the patterns and extent of variation is important to minimize disparity in outcomes.ObjectiveTo evaluate the geographic patterns, extent, and factors associated with state-level variation in outcomes of adult patients listed for heart transplantation in the US.Design, setting, and participantsThis nationwide retrospective cohort study used data from the United Network for Organ Sharing database to identify adult patients listed for heart transplantation at status 1A between January 1, 2011, and December 31, 2016. Patients were followed up until March 31, 2018. Data were analyzed from November 1, 2019, to September 19, 2020.Main outcomes and measuresThe study evaluated state-level variation in the 3 main organ transplant measures: waitlist mortality, transplant rate, and risk-adjusted 1-year graft survival. The rate of death while on the waitlist and the rate of transplant were calculated for each state per 1000 waitlist person-days listed at status 1A over the study period. Risk-adjusted 1-year graft survival was calculated based on the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients risk-adjustment model. State-level variation in each outcome measure was evaluated via multivariable-adjusted models.ResultsAcross 50 states and the District of Columbia, a total of 15 036 patients (mean [SD] age, 52 [13] years; 3531 women [24%]; 9626 White [64%]) were listed at status 1A for adult heart transplantation between 2011 and 2016. Of those, 2146 patients (14.3%) died while on the waitlist, and 10 982 patients (73.0%) received transplants. Among those who received transplants, the median time on the waitlist was 31 days (interquartile range, 13-61 days). State-level outcomes ranged from 1.0 to 7.8 deaths per 1000 waitlist person-days for waitlist mortality, 5.6 to 34.5 transplants per 1000 waitlist person-days for transplant rate, and 87% to 92% for risk-adjusted 1-year graft survival. In a comparison of the highest and lowest quartiles, significant state-level variation was found in waitlist mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.53; 95% CI, 1.27-1.86), transplant rate (HR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.31-1.87), and 1-year graft survival (odds ratio, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.64-2.62).Conclusions and relevanceThe study's findings indicate that significant state-level variation exists in the outcomes of patients listed for heart transplantation in the US. Identifying and addressing the factors associated with these geographic variations in outcomes is important to ensure a fair allocation system.

Dataset Information

Continuously Updated Estimation of Heart Transplant Waitlist Mortality.

Publications

Continuously Updated Estimation of Heart Transplant Waitlist Mortality.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets