Dataset Information

Incidence of varicella in children in Jeju-do, Korea, 2005-2016: age-period-cohort analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

Although the nationwide inoculation rate of varicella vaccine was approximately 95% in Korean children recently, the number of notified varicella cases is unexpectedly continuously increasing till now. To suggest some hypotheses regarding this discrepancy, an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis as a descriptive epidemiology study was conducted for children residing in Jeju-do, Korea.

Methods

The raw data were obtained from the nationwide database for insurance claim of healthcare fee provided by the National Health Insurance Service, Korea. The selection criteria were children aged 2-13 years who visited any healthcare center due to varicella from 2005 to 2016 while residing in Jeju-do. After calculating the birth cohort-specific crude incidence rates by age and year, the intrinsic estimator method was used to perform the APC analysis.

Results

As the annual crude incidence rates decreased with increasing age between 2005 and 2016, the age and period effects also decreased. The intrinsic estimator coefficients suggesting the cohort effect shifted from positive to negative in 2011, the starting year of free varicella vaccine program in Jeju-do.

Conclusions

The results suggested that inoculated varicella vaccines have preventive effects. However, further studies to evaluate waning immunity would be needed.

SUBMITTER: Kim J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6302224 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Incidence of varicella in children in Jeju-do, Korea, 2005-2016: age-period-cohort analysis.

Kim Jinhee J Kim Ji-Eun JE Bae Jong-Myon JM

Epidemiology and health 20181108

<h4>Objectives</h4>Although the nationwide inoculation rate of varicella vaccine was approximately 95% in Korean children recently, the number of notified varicella cases is unexpectedly continuously increasing till now. To suggest some hypotheses regarding this discrepancy, an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis as a descriptive epidemiology study was conducted for children residing in Jeju-do, Korea.<h4>Methods</h4>The raw data were obtained from the nationwide database for insurance claim of hea ...[more]

PMID: 30428643

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Project description:BACKGROUND:The incidence of preterm birth (PTB, <?37?weeks of gestation) has been increasing in China and many other countries in recent years. However, the causes of the increase were not well understood. The current study aims to examine the contribution of maternal age, period of delivery, and maternal birth cohorts to long-term trends in preterm birth in Guangzhou, China. METHODS:In a retrospective population-based study, data were obtained from 2,535,000 singleton live births with 20-43 gestational weeks from 2001 to 2016 and recorded in the Guangzhou Perinatal Health Care and Delivery Surveillance System, in China. The age-period-cohort models were applied to investigate the temporal changes in incidences of PTB, stratified by parity. RESULTS:The incidence of preterm birth steadily increased from 5.1% in 2001 to 5.9% in 2016, with larger rise in primiparous mothers (from 5.0 to 5.9%) compared to multiparous mothers (from 5.6 to 5.9%). A J-shaped and a V-shaped relationship were found between maternal age and PTB among primiparous and multiparous mothers, respectively. A linear cohort effect was found among primiparous mothers with the lowest risk of PTB [risk ratio (RR)?=?0.81, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.74 to 0.89] in 1961 and the highest risk (RR?=?1.06, 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.13) in 1997 compared to the mothers born in 1981. An inverse U-shaped association between maternal birth cohort and PTB was found in multiparous mothers. There were weak decreasing period effects on the trend of overall PTB among multiparous mothers and on the trend of extremely (<?27?weeks) or very (28-31?weeks) PTB among both parity groups during the period of 2001-2012. CONCLUSIONS:Our findings showed the PTB incidences had been increasing in the past 16?years in Guangzhou, China and both maternal age and cohort effects contributed to these trends. Further studies are recommended on the impact of altered maternal age and parity on premature births and corresponding public education and public health policies.

Project description:Background Tuberculosis (TB) poses a severe public health challenge in China and worldwide. This study evaluated the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on reported incidence trends of TB based on population and refined the characteristics of high-risk groups. Methods Aggregate data that reported pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) cases from China Tuberculosis Management Information System (TBIMS) from 2006 to 2020 were used to analyze effect coefficients through the age–period–cohort (APC) model based on intrinsic estimator (IE) method, and converted them into relative risk (RR) to estimate trends. Results A total of 14.82 million cases of PTB were reported in China from 2006 to 2020, showing a continuous downward trend. The reporting rate increased with age by age group, with 70–74 years old being 2–3 times higher than that in 20–24 years old. APC analysis model showed that age effects were bimodal in 20–24 years old [RR = 2.29, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.73–3.03] and 70–74 years old (RR = 1.95, 95% CI: 1.67–2.27), and lower than the overall average in the groups under 15 years old. Stratified results showed that the risk was higher for women under age 40 than men and higher for men over 40. The risk was higher in urban than in rural areas under 30 years old and slightly higher in rural than in urban between 30 and 64 years old. The risk for 15–34 years old was significantly higher in the east than in other regions. The period effects showed a decreasing trend, and the risk was higher in rural in recent years. Except for cohorts born in 1961–1965 and 2001–2005, where the RR increased, the later the cohort was born, the lower the risk. The cohort 1926–1930 in eastern had the highest risk (RR = 3.49, 95% CI: 2.44–4.98). Conclusions The reported incidence of PTB continued to decline in China from 2006 to 2020. The young (20–24 years old) and the elderly (70–74 years old) were equally at high risk. There were differences in the age, period and cohort effects on PTB incidence among gender, urban–rural and regions. Our findings better reflected the characteristics of high-risk populations, thus contributing to the development of timely and effective intervention strategies, and providing clues for etiological research. Graphical abstract Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40249-022-01009-4.

Dataset Information

Incidence of varicella in children in Jeju-do, Korea, 2005-2016: age-period-cohort analysis.

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Incidence of varicella in children in Jeju-do, Korea, 2005-2016: age-period-cohort analysis.

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