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Individualized survival prediction for patients with oropharyngeal cancer in the human papillomavirus era.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Accurate, individualized prognostication in patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) is vital for patient counseling and treatment decision making. With the emergence of human papillomavirus (HPV) as an important biomarker in OPSCC, calculators incorporating this variable have been developed. However, it is critical to characterize their accuracy prior to implementation. METHODS:Four OPSCC calculators were identified that integrate HPV into their estimation of 5-year overall survival. Treatment outcomes for 856 patients with OPSCC who were evaluated at a single institution from 2003 through 2016 were analyzed. Predicted survival probabilities were generated for each patient using each calculator. Calculator performance was assessed and compared using Kaplan-Meier plots, receiver operating characteristic curves, concordance statistics, and calibration plots. RESULTS:Correlation between pairs of calculators varied, with coefficients ranging from 0.63 to 0.90. Only 3 of 6 pairs of calculators yielded predictions within 10% of each other for at least 50% of patients. Kaplan-Meier curves of calculator-defined risk groups demonstrated reasonable stratification. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 0.74 to 0.80, and concordance statistics ranged from 0.71 to 0.78. Each calculator demonstrated superior discriminatory ability compared with clinical staging according to the seventh and eighth editions of the American Joint Committee on Cancer staging manual. Among models, the Denmark calculator was found to be best calibrated to observed outcomes. CONCLUSIONS:Existing calculators exhibited reasonable estimation of survival in patients with OPSCC, but there was considerable variability in predictions for individual patients, which limits the clinical usefulness of these calculators. Given the increasing role of personalized treatment in patients with OPSCC, further work is needed to improve accuracy and precision, possibly through the identification and incorporation of additional biomarkers.

SUBMITTER: Beesley LJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6309492 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Individualized survival prediction for patients with oropharyngeal cancer in the human papillomavirus era.

Beesley Lauren J LJ Hawkins Peter G PG Amlani Lahin M LM Bellile Emily L EL Casper Keith A KA Chinn Steven B SB Eisbruch Avraham A Mierzwa Michelle L ML Spector Matthew E ME Wolf Gregory T GT Shuman Andrew G AG Taylor Jeremy M G JMG

Cancer 20181006 1

<h4>Background</h4>Accurate, individualized prognostication in patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) is vital for patient counseling and treatment decision making. With the emergence of human papillomavirus (HPV) as an important biomarker in OPSCC, calculators incorporating this variable have been developed. However, it is critical to characterize their accuracy prior to implementation.<h4>Methods</h4>Four OPSCC calculators were identified that integrate HPV into their esti ...[more]

PMID: 30291798

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Project description:BackgroundOropharyngeal squamous-cell carcinomas caused by human papillomavirus (HPV) are associated with favorable survival, but the independent prognostic significance of tumor HPV status remains unknown.MethodsWe performed a retrospective analysis of the association between tumor HPV status and survival among patients with stage III or IV oropharyngeal squamous-cell carcinoma who were enrolled in a randomized trial comparing accelerated-fractionation radiotherapy (with acceleration by means of concomitant boost radiotherapy) with standard-fractionation radiotherapy, each combined with cisplatin therapy, in patients with squamous-cell carcinoma of the head and neck. Proportional-hazards models were used to compare the risk of death among patients with HPV-positive cancer and those with HPV-negative cancer.ResultsThe median follow-up period was 4.8 years. The 3-year rate of overall survival was similar in the group receiving accelerated-fractionation radiotherapy and the group receiving standard-fractionation radiotherapy (70.3% vs. 64.3%; P=0.18; hazard ratio for death with accelerated-fractionation radiotherapy, 0.90; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72 to 1.13), as were the rates of high-grade acute and late toxic events. A total of 63.8% of patients with oropharyngeal cancer (206 of 323) had HPV-positive tumors; these patients had better 3-year rates of overall survival (82.4%, vs. 57.1% among patients with HPV-negative tumors; P<0.001 by the log-rank test) and, after adjustment for age, race, tumor and nodal stage, tobacco exposure, and treatment assignment, had a 58% reduction in the risk of death (hazard ratio, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.27 to 0.66). The risk of death significantly increased with each additional pack-year of tobacco smoking. Using recursive-partitioning analysis, we classified our patients as having a low, intermediate, or high risk of death on the basis of four factors: HPV status, pack-years of tobacco smoking, tumor stage, and nodal stage.ConclusionsTumor HPV status is a strong and independent prognostic factor for survival among patients with oropharyngeal cancer. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00047008.)

Project description:PurposeHuman papillomavirus-associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (HPV[+]OPSCC) requires further study to optimize the existing clinical staging system and guide treatment selection. We hypothesize that incorporation of the number of radiographically positive lymph nodes will further stratify patients with clinical N1 (cN1) HPV(+)OPSCC.Methods and materialsA post hoc analysis from 2 prospective clinical trials at a high-volume referral center was conducted. Patients underwent primary tumor resection and lymphadenectomy, followed by either standard-of-care radiation therapy (60 Gy in 30 fractions) with or without cisplatin (40 mg/m2 weekly) or de-escalated radiation therapy (30 Gy in 20 twice-daily fractions) with concomitant 15 mg/m2 docetaxel once weekly. Imaging studies were independently reviewed by a blinded neuroradiologist classifying radiographic extranodal extension (rENE) and the number and maximal size of involved lymph nodes. Patients without pathologic data available for assessment were excluded.ResultsA total of 260 patients were included. Of these, 216 (83%) were cN1. Patients had a median of 2 radiographically positive lymph nodes (range, 0-12), and 107 (41%) had rENE. For cN1 patients, stratifying by radiographically positive lymph nodes (1-2 vs 3-4 vs >4) was predictive of progression-free survival (PFS) (P = .017), with 2-year PFS rates of 96%, 88%, and 81%, respectively. More than 2 radiographically positive lymph nodes was identified as a significant threshold for PFS (P = .0055) and overall survival (P = .029). Radiographic ENE and lymph node size were not predictive of PFS among cN1 patients.ConclusionsThe number of radiographically positive lymph nodes is predictive of PFS and overall survival and could be used to meaningfully subcategorize cN1 patients with HPV(+)OPSCC. We recommend further validation of our proposal that cN1 patients with 1 to 2 radiologically positive lymph nodes be categorized as cN1a, patients with 3 to 4 radiologically positive lymph nodes categorized as cN1b, and patients with >4 radiographically positive lymph nodes categorized as cN1c.

Dataset Information

Individualized survival prediction for patients with oropharyngeal cancer in the human papillomavirus era.

Publications

Individualized survival prediction for patients with oropharyngeal cancer in the human papillomavirus era.

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