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Mathematical assessment of the role of vector insecticide resistance and feeding/resting behavior on malaria transmission dynamics: Optimal control analysis.

ABSTRACT: The large-scale use of insecticide-treated bednets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS), over the last two decades, has resulted in a dramatic reduction of malaria incidence globally. However, the effectiveness of these interventions is now being threatened by numerous factors, such as resistance to insecticide in the mosquito vector and their preference to feed and rest outdoors or early in the evening (when humans are not protected by the bednets). This study presents a new deterministic model for assessing the population-level impact of mosquito insecticide resistance on malaria transmission dynamics. A notable feature of the model is that it stratifies the mosquito population in terms of type (wild or resistant to insecticides) and feeding preference (indoor or outdoor). The model is rigorously analysed to gain insight into the existence and asymptotic stability properties of the various disease-free equilibria of the model namely the trivial disease-free equilibrium, the non-trivial resistant-only boundary disease-free equilibrium and a non-trivial disease-free equlibrium where both the wild and resistant mosquito geneotypes co-exist). Simulations of the model, using data relevant to malaria transmission dynamics in Ethiopia (a malaria-endemic nation), show that the use of optimal ITNs alone, or in combination with optimal IRS, is more effective than the singular implementation of an optimal IRS-only strategy. Further, when the effect of the fitness cost of insecticide resistance with respect to fecundity (i.e., assuming a decrease in the baseline birth rate of new resistant-type adult female mosquitoes) is accounted for, numerical simulations of the model show that the combined optimal ITNs-IRS strategy could lead to the effective control of the disease, and insecticide resistance effectively managed during the first 8 years of the 15-year implementation period of the insecticides-based anti-malaria control measures in the community.

SUBMITTER: Mohammed-Awel J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6326232 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Mathematical assessment of the role of vector insecticide resistance and feeding/resting behavior on malaria transmission dynamics: Optimal control analysis.

Mohammed-Awel Jemal J Agusto Folashade F Mickens Ronald E RE Gumel Abba B AB

Infectious Disease Modelling 20181102

The large-scale use of insecticide-treated bednets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS), over the last two decades, has resulted in a dramatic reduction of malaria incidence globally. However, the effectiveness of these interventions is now being threatened by numerous factors, such as resistance to insecticide in the mosquito vector and their preference to feed and rest outdoors or early in the evening (when humans are not protected by the bednets). This study presents a new deterministic ...[more]

PMID: 30839928

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Project description:BackgroundVector-borne diseases are important public health issues and, consequently, in silico models that simulate them can be useful. The susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model simulates the population dynamics of an epidemic and can be easily adapted to vector-borne diseases, whereas the Hardy-Weinberg model simulates allele frequencies and can be used to study insecticide resistance evolution. The aim of the present study is to develop a coupled system that unifies both models, therefore enabling the analysis of the effects of vector population genetics on the population dynamics of an epidemic.MethodsOur model consists of an ordinary differential equation system. We considered the populations of susceptible, infected and recovered humans, as well as susceptible and infected vectors. Concerning these vectors, we considered a pair of alleles, with complete dominance interaction that determined the rate of mortality induced by insecticides. Thus, we were able to separate the vectors according to the genotype. We performed three numerical simulations of the model. In simulation one, both alleles conferred the same mortality rate values, therefore there was no resistant strain. In simulations two and three, the recessive and dominant alleles, respectively, conferred a lower mortality.ResultsOur numerical results show that the genetic composition of the vector population affects the dynamics of human diseases. We found that the absolute number of vectors and the proportion of infected vectors are smaller when there is no resistant strain, whilst the ratio of infected people is larger in the presence of insecticide-resistant vectors. The dynamics observed for infected humans in all simulations has a very similar shape to real epidemiological data.ConclusionThe population genetics of vectors can affect epidemiological dynamics, and the presence of insecticide-resistant strains can increase the number of infected people. Based on the present results, the model is a basis for development of other models and for investigating population dynamics.

Project description:BackgroundUnderstanding the behaviour of local malaria vectors is essential as effectiveness of the commonly used vector-targeted malaria control tools heavily relies on behaviour of the major malaria vectors. This study was conducted to determine species composition, biting behaviour, host preference and infectivity of anopheline mosquitoes, and assess utilization of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) in a low transmission setting in Southwest Ethiopia.MethodsAdult anopheline mosquitoes were collected using human landing catches (HLCs), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) light traps (LTs) and Pyrethrum Spray Catches (PSCs) from June 2016 to May 2018 in Kishe, Jimma Zone, Southwest Ethiopia. The anopheline mosquitoes were morphologically identified. Moreover, sub-sample of An. gambiae s.l. was identified to species using polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Circum-sporozoite proteins (CSPs) and blood meal sources of the anopheline mosquitoes were tested using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). In addition, a cross-sectional survey was conducted to assess ITN utilization by the inhabitants.ResultsA total of 3659 anopheline mosquitoes comprising An. coustani complex (84.4%), An. gambiae s.l. (11.3%), and An. pharoensis and An. squamosus comprising less than 5% were collected. The anopheline mosquitoes showed marked outdoor (67%) and early evening (63%) biting behaviour. An. coustani complex and An. gambiae s.l. were predominantly zoophilic and anthropophilic, respectively. None of the sampled anopheline were CSP-positive. Most of the households (97.8%) owned at least one ITN, with modest usage by the inhabitants (73.4%). ITN usage was significantly higher among under-five children (AOR = 7.9, 95% CI: 4.41-14.03), household heads and spouses (AOR = 4.8, 95% CI: 3.0-7.59), those with sufficient access to ITNs (AOR = 1.8, 95% CI: 1.39-2.35), and who were not utilizing alternative mosquito repellents (AOR = 2.2, 95% CI: 1.58-2.99).ConclusionThe anopheline mosquito species exhibited predominantly outdoor and early evening biting activity. Household ITN coverage was high with slight gap in usage. Vector control interventions should target outdoor and early biting vectors to further suppress the local mosquito population. Moreover, sensitization of the community on consistent use of ITNs is required.

Project description:Vector control has been a key component in the fight against malaria for decades, and chemical insecticides are critical to the success of vector control programs worldwide. However, increasing resistance to insecticides threatens to undermine these efforts. Understanding the evolution and propagation of resistance is thus imperative to mitigating loss of intervention effectiveness. Additionally, accelerated research and development of new tools that can be deployed alongside existing vector control strategies is key to eradicating malaria in the near future. Methods such as gene drives that aim to genetically modify large mosquito populations in the wild to either render them refractory to malaria or impair their reproduction may prove invaluable tools. Mathematical models of gene flow in populations, which is the transfer of genetic information from one population to another through migration, can offer invaluable insight into the behavior and potential impact of gene drives as well as the spread of insecticide resistance in the wild. Here, we present the first multi-locus, agent-based model of vector genetics that accounts for mutations and a many-to-many mapping cardinality of genotypes to phenotypes to investigate gene flow, and the propagation of gene drives in Anopheline populations. This model is embedded within a large scale individual-based model of malaria transmission representative of a high burden, high transmission setting characteristic of the Sahel. Results are presented for the selection of insecticide-resistant vectors and the spread of resistance through repeated deployment of insecticide treated nets (ITNs), in addition to scenarios where gene drives act in concert with existing vector control tools such as ITNs. The roles of seasonality, spatial distribution of vector habitat and feed sites, and existing vector control in propagating alleles that confer phenotypic traits via gene drives that result in reduced transmission are explored. The ability to model a spectrum of vector species with different genotypes and phenotypes in the context of malaria transmission allows us to test deployment strategies for existing interventions that reduce the deleterious effects of resistance and allows exploration of the impact of new tools being proposed or developed.

Project description:Malaria transmission is dependent on the propensity of Anopheles mosquitoes to bite humans (anthropophily) instead of other dead end hosts. Recent increases in the usage of Long Lasting Insecticide Treated Nets (LLINs) in Africa have been associated with reductions in highly anthropophilic and endophilic vectors such as Anopheles gambiae s.s., leaving species with a broader host range, such as Anopheles arabiensis, as the most prominent remaining source of transmission in many settings. An. arabiensis appears to be more of a generalist in terms of its host choice and resting behavior, which may be due to phenotypic plasticity and/or segregating allelic variation. To investigate the genetic basis of host choice and resting behavior in An. arabiensis we sequenced the genomes of 23 human-fed and 25 cattle-fed mosquitoes collected both in-doors and out-doors in the Kilombero Valley, Tanzania. We identified a total of 4,820,851 SNPs, which were used to conduct the first genome-wide estimates of "SNP heritability" for host choice and resting behavior in this species. A genetic component was detected for host choice (human vs cow fed; permuted P = 0.002), but there was no evidence of a genetic component for resting behavior (indoors versus outside; permuted P = 0.465). A principal component analysis (PCA) segregated individuals based on genomic variation into three groups which were characterized by differences at the 2Rb and/or 3Ra paracentromeric chromosome inversions. There was a non-random distribution of cattle-fed mosquitoes between the PCA clusters, suggesting that alleles linked to the 2Rb and/or 3Ra inversions may influence host choice. Using a novel inversion genotyping assay, we detected a significant enrichment of the standard arrangement (non-inverted) of 3Ra among cattle-fed mosquitoes (N = 129) versus all non-cattle-fed individuals (N = 234; χ2, p = 0.007). Thus, tracking the frequency of the 3Ra in An. arabiensis populations may be of use to infer selection on host choice behavior within these vector populations; possibly in response to vector control. Controlled host-choice assays are needed to discern whether the observed genetic component has a direct relationship with innate host preference. A better understanding of the genetic basis for host feeding behavior in An. arabiensis may also open avenues for novel vector control strategies based on driving genes for zoophily into wild mosquito populations.

Project description:BackgroundThis is now a concern that malaria eradication will not be achieved without the introduction of novel control tools. Microbiological control might be able to make a greater contribution to vector control in the future. The interactions between bacteria and mosquito make mosquito microbiota really promising from a disease control perspective. Here, the impact of Chromobacterium violaceum infections, isolated from both larvae and adult of wild-caught Anopheles gambiae sensu lato mosquitoes in Burkina Faso, was evaluated on mosquito survival, blood feeding and fecundity.MethodsTo assess entomopathogenic effects of C. violaceum infection on mosquitoes, three different types of bioassays were performed in laboratory. These bioassays aimed to evaluate the impact of C. violaceum infection on mosquito survival, blood feeding and fecundity, respectively. During bioassays mosquitoes were infected through the well-established system of cotton ball soaked with 6% glucose containing C. violaceum.ResultsChromobacterium violaceum kills pyrethroid resistant Anopheles coluzzii (LT80 of 8.78 days?±?0.18 at 108 bacteria cell/ml of sugar meal). Interestingly, this bacterium had other negative effects on mosquito lifespan by significantly reducing (~?59%, P?<?0.001) the mosquito feeding willingness from day 4-post infection (~?81% would seek a host to blood feed) to 9- day post infection (22?±?4.62% would seek a host to blood feed). Moreover, C. violaceum considerably jeopardized the egg laying (~?16 eggs laid/mosquito with C. violaceum infected mosquitoes vs?~?129 eggs laid/mosquito with control mosquitoes) and hatching of mosquitoes (a reduction of?~?22% of hatching rate with C. violaceum infected mosquitoes). Compared to the bacterial uninfected mosquitoes, mosquitoes infected with C. violaceum showed significantly higher retention rates of immature eggs and follicles.ConclusionThese data showed important properties of Burkina Faso C. violaceum strains, which are highly virulent against insecticide-resistant An. coluzzii, and reduce both mosquito blood feeding and fecundity propensities. However, additional studies as the sequencing of C. violaceum genome and the potential toxins secreted will provide useful information render it a potential candidate for the biological control strategies of malaria and other disease vectors.

Dataset Information

Mathematical assessment of the role of vector insecticide resistance and feeding/resting behavior on malaria transmission dynamics: Optimal control analysis.

Publications

Mathematical assessment of the role of vector insecticide resistance and feeding/resting behavior on malaria transmission dynamics: Optimal control analysis.

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