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Mathematical assessment of the role of vector insecticide resistance and feeding/resting behavior on malaria transmission dynamics: Optimal control analysis.

ABSTRACT: The large-scale use of insecticide-treated bednets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS), over the last two decades, has resulted in a dramatic reduction of malaria incidence globally. However, the effectiveness of these interventions is now being threatened by numerous factors, such as resistance to insecticide in the mosquito vector and their preference to feed and rest outdoors or early in the evening (when humans are not protected by the bednets). This study presents a new deterministic model for assessing the population-level impact of mosquito insecticide resistance on malaria transmission dynamics. A notable feature of the model is that it stratifies the mosquito population in terms of type (wild or resistant to insecticides) and feeding preference (indoor or outdoor). The model is rigorously analysed to gain insight into the existence and asymptotic stability properties of the various disease-free equilibria of the model namely the trivial disease-free equilibrium, the non-trivial resistant-only boundary disease-free equilibrium and a non-trivial disease-free equlibrium where both the wild and resistant mosquito geneotypes co-exist). Simulations of the model, using data relevant to malaria transmission dynamics in Ethiopia (a malaria-endemic nation), show that the use of optimal ITNs alone, or in combination with optimal IRS, is more effective than the singular implementation of an optimal IRS-only strategy. Further, when the effect of the fitness cost of insecticide resistance with respect to fecundity (i.e., assuming a decrease in the baseline birth rate of new resistant-type adult female mosquitoes) is accounted for, numerical simulations of the model show that the combined optimal ITNs-IRS strategy could lead to the effective control of the disease, and insecticide resistance effectively managed during the first 8 years of the 15-year implementation period of the insecticides-based anti-malaria control measures in the community.

SUBMITTER: Mohammed-Awel J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6326232 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Mathematical assessment of the role of vector insecticide resistance and feeding/resting behavior on malaria transmission dynamics: Optimal control analysis.

Mohammed-Awel Jemal J Agusto Folashade F Mickens Ronald E RE Gumel Abba B AB

Infectious Disease Modelling 20181102

The large-scale use of insecticide-treated bednets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS), over the last two decades, has resulted in a dramatic reduction of malaria incidence globally. However, the effectiveness of these interventions is now being threatened by numerous factors, such as resistance to insecticide in the mosquito vector and their preference to feed and rest outdoors or early in the evening (when humans are not protected by the bednets). This study presents a new deterministic ...[more]

PMID: 30839928

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Project description:BackgroundUnderstanding the behaviour of local malaria vectors is essential as effectiveness of the commonly used vector-targeted malaria control tools heavily relies on behaviour of the major malaria vectors. This study was conducted to determine species composition, biting behaviour, host preference and infectivity of anopheline mosquitoes, and assess utilization of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) in a low transmission setting in Southwest Ethiopia.MethodsAdult anopheline mosquitoes were collected using human landing catches (HLCs), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) light traps (LTs) and Pyrethrum Spray Catches (PSCs) from June 2016 to May 2018 in Kishe, Jimma Zone, Southwest Ethiopia. The anopheline mosquitoes were morphologically identified. Moreover, sub-sample of An. gambiae s.l. was identified to species using polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Circum-sporozoite proteins (CSPs) and blood meal sources of the anopheline mosquitoes were tested using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). In addition, a cross-sectional survey was conducted to assess ITN utilization by the inhabitants.ResultsA total of 3659 anopheline mosquitoes comprising An. coustani complex (84.4%), An. gambiae s.l. (11.3%), and An. pharoensis and An. squamosus comprising less than 5% were collected. The anopheline mosquitoes showed marked outdoor (67%) and early evening (63%) biting behaviour. An. coustani complex and An. gambiae s.l. were predominantly zoophilic and anthropophilic, respectively. None of the sampled anopheline were CSP-positive. Most of the households (97.8%) owned at least one ITN, with modest usage by the inhabitants (73.4%). ITN usage was significantly higher among under-five children (AOR = 7.9, 95% CI: 4.41-14.03), household heads and spouses (AOR = 4.8, 95% CI: 3.0-7.59), those with sufficient access to ITNs (AOR = 1.8, 95% CI: 1.39-2.35), and who were not utilizing alternative mosquito repellents (AOR = 2.2, 95% CI: 1.58-2.99).ConclusionThe anopheline mosquito species exhibited predominantly outdoor and early evening biting activity. Household ITN coverage was high with slight gap in usage. Vector control interventions should target outdoor and early biting vectors to further suppress the local mosquito population. Moreover, sensitization of the community on consistent use of ITNs is required.

Project description:BackgroundIn the context of widespread mosquito resistance to currently available pesticides, novel, precise genetic vector control methods aimed at population suppression or trait replacement are a potentially powerful approach that could complement existing malaria elimination interventions. Such methods require knowledge of vector population composition, dynamics, behaviour and role in transmission. Here were characterized these parameters in three representative villages, Bana, Pala and Souroukoudingan, of the Sudano-Sahelian belt of Burkina Faso, a region where bed net campaigns have recently intensified.MethodsFrom July 2012 to November 2015, adult mosquitoes were collected monthly using pyrethroid spray catches (PSC) and human landing catches (HLC) in each village. Larval habitat prospections assessed breeding sites abundance at each site. Mosquitoes collected by PSC were identified morphologically, and then by molecular technique to species where required, to reveal the seasonal dynamics of local vectors. Monthly entomological inoculation rates (EIR) that reflect malaria transmission dynamics were estimated by combining the HLC data with mosquito sporozoite infection rates (SIR) identified through ELISA-CSP. Finally, population and EIR fluctuations were fit to locally-collected rainfall data to highlight the strong seasonal determinants of mosquito abundance and malaria transmission in this region.ResultsThe principal malaria vectors found were in the Anopheles gambiae complex. Mosquito abundance peaked during the rainy season, but there was variation in vector species composition between villages. Mean survey HLC and SIR were similar across villages and ranged from 18 to 48 mosquitoes/person/night and from 3.1 to 6.6% prevalence. The resulting monthly EIRs were extremely high during the rainy season (0.91-2.35 infectious bites/person/day) but decreased substantially in the dry season (0.03-0.22). Vector and malaria transmission dynamics generally tracked seasonal rainfall variations, and the highest mosquito abundances and EIRs occurred in the rainy season. However, despite low residual mosquito populations, mosquitoes infected with malaria parasites remained present in the dry season.ConclusionThese results highlight the important vector control challenge facing countries with high EIR despite the recent campaigns of bed net distribution. As demonstrated in these villages, malaria transmission is sustained for large parts of the year by a very high vector abundance and high sporozoite prevalence, resulting in seasonal patterns of hyper and hypo-endemicity. There is, therefore, an urgent need for additional vector control tools that can target endo and exophillic mosquito populations.

Project description:BackgroundVector-borne diseases are important public health issues and, consequently, in silico models that simulate them can be useful. The susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model simulates the population dynamics of an epidemic and can be easily adapted to vector-borne diseases, whereas the Hardy-Weinberg model simulates allele frequencies and can be used to study insecticide resistance evolution. The aim of the present study is to develop a coupled system that unifies both models, therefore enabling the analysis of the effects of vector population genetics on the population dynamics of an epidemic.MethodsOur model consists of an ordinary differential equation system. We considered the populations of susceptible, infected and recovered humans, as well as susceptible and infected vectors. Concerning these vectors, we considered a pair of alleles, with complete dominance interaction that determined the rate of mortality induced by insecticides. Thus, we were able to separate the vectors according to the genotype. We performed three numerical simulations of the model. In simulation one, both alleles conferred the same mortality rate values, therefore there was no resistant strain. In simulations two and three, the recessive and dominant alleles, respectively, conferred a lower mortality.ResultsOur numerical results show that the genetic composition of the vector population affects the dynamics of human diseases. We found that the absolute number of vectors and the proportion of infected vectors are smaller when there is no resistant strain, whilst the ratio of infected people is larger in the presence of insecticide-resistant vectors. The dynamics observed for infected humans in all simulations has a very similar shape to real epidemiological data.ConclusionThe population genetics of vectors can affect epidemiological dynamics, and the presence of insecticide-resistant strains can increase the number of infected people. Based on the present results, the model is a basis for development of other models and for investigating population dynamics.

Project description:Vector control has been a key component in the fight against malaria for decades, and chemical insecticides are critical to the success of vector control programs worldwide. However, increasing resistance to insecticides threatens to undermine these efforts. Understanding the evolution and propagation of resistance is thus imperative to mitigating loss of intervention effectiveness. Additionally, accelerated research and development of new tools that can be deployed alongside existing vector control strategies is key to eradicating malaria in the near future. Methods such as gene drives that aim to genetically modify large mosquito populations in the wild to either render them refractory to malaria or impair their reproduction may prove invaluable tools. Mathematical models of gene flow in populations, which is the transfer of genetic information from one population to another through migration, can offer invaluable insight into the behavior and potential impact of gene drives as well as the spread of insecticide resistance in the wild. Here, we present the first multi-locus, agent-based model of vector genetics that accounts for mutations and a many-to-many mapping cardinality of genotypes to phenotypes to investigate gene flow, and the propagation of gene drives in Anopheline populations. This model is embedded within a large scale individual-based model of malaria transmission representative of a high burden, high transmission setting characteristic of the Sahel. Results are presented for the selection of insecticide-resistant vectors and the spread of resistance through repeated deployment of insecticide treated nets (ITNs), in addition to scenarios where gene drives act in concert with existing vector control tools such as ITNs. The roles of seasonality, spatial distribution of vector habitat and feed sites, and existing vector control in propagating alleles that confer phenotypic traits via gene drives that result in reduced transmission are explored. The ability to model a spectrum of vector species with different genotypes and phenotypes in the context of malaria transmission allows us to test deployment strategies for existing interventions that reduce the deleterious effects of resistance and allows exploration of the impact of new tools being proposed or developed.

Project description:BackgroundMalaria remains one of the main causes of morbidity and mortality in Cameroon. To inform vector control intervention decision making, malaria vector surveillance was conducted monthly from October 2018 to September 2020 in five selected sentinel sites (Gounougou and Simatou in the North, and Bonabéri, Mangoum and Nyabessang in the South).MethodsHuman landing catches (HLCs), U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) light traps, and pyrethrum spray catches (PSCs) were used to assess vector density, species composition, human biting rate (HBR), endophagic index, indoor resting density (IRD), parity, sporozoite infection rates, entomological inoculation rate (EIR), and Anopheles vectorial capacity.ResultsA total of 139,322 Anopheles mosquitoes from 18 species (or 21 including identified sub-species) were collected across all sites. Out of the 18 species, 12 were malaria vectors including Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.), Anopheles funestus s.l.., Anopheles nili, Anopheles moucheti, Anopheles paludis, Anopheles demeilloni, Anopheles. pharoensis, Anopheles ziemanni, Anopheles multicinctus, Anopheles tenebrosus, Anopheles rufipes, and Anopheles marshallii. Anopheles gambiae s.l. remains the major malaria vector (71% of the total Anopheles) collected, though An. moucheti and An. paludis had the highest sporozoite rates in Nyabessang. The mean indoor HBR of Anopheles ranged from 11.0 bites/human/night (b/h/n) in Bonabéri to 104.0 b/h/n in Simatou, while outdoors, it varied from 24.2 b/h/n in Mangoum to 98.7 b/h/n in Simatou. Anopheles gambiae s.l. and An. moucheti were actively biting until at least 8:00 a.m. The mean Anopheles IRD was 17.1 females/room, and the parity rate was 68.9%. The mean EIRs for each site were 55.4 infective bites/human/month (ib/h/m) in Gounougou, 99.0 ib/h/m in Simatou, 51.2 ib/h/m in Mangoum, 24.4 ib/h/m in Nyabessang, and 18.1 ib/h/m in Bonabéri. Anopheles gambiae s.l. was confirmed as the main malaria vector with the highest vectorial capacity in all sites based on sporozoite rate, except in Nyabessang.ConclusionThese findings highlight the high malaria transmission occurring in Cameroon and will support the National Malaria Control Program to design evidence-based malaria vector control strategies, and deployment of effective and integrated vector control interventions to reduce malaria transmission and burden in Cameroon, where several Anopheles species could potentially maintain year-round transmission.

Dataset Information

Mathematical assessment of the role of vector insecticide resistance and feeding/resting behavior on malaria transmission dynamics: Optimal control analysis.

Publications

Mathematical assessment of the role of vector insecticide resistance and feeding/resting behavior on malaria transmission dynamics: Optimal control analysis.

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