Dataset Information

Transmission dynamics and control strategies assessment of avian influenza A (H5N6) in the Philippines.

ABSTRACT: Due to the outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (HPAI) H5N6 in the Philippines (particularly in Pampanga and Nueva Ecija) in August 2017, there has been an increase in the need to cull the domestic birds to control the spread of the infection. However, this control method poses a negative impact on the poultry industry. In addition, the pathogenicity and transmissibility of the H5N6 in both the birds and the humans remain largely unknown which call for the necessity to develop more strategic control methods for the virus. In this study, we constructed a mathematical model for the bilinear and half-saturated incidence to compare their corresponding effect on transmission dynamics of H5N6. The simulations of half-saturated incidence model were similar to what occurred during the H5N6 outbreak (2017) in the Philippines. Instead of culling the birds, we implemented other control strategies such as non-medicinal (personal protection and poultry isolation) and medicinal (poultry vaccination) ways to prevent, reduce, and control the rate of the H5N6 virus transmission. Among the proposed control strategies, we have shown that the poultry isolation strategy is still the most effective in reducing the infected birds.

SUBMITTER: Lee H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6326262 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Transmission dynamics and control strategies assessment of avian influenza A (H5N6) in the Philippines.

Lee Hanl H Lao Angelyn A

Infectious Disease Modelling 20180316

Due to the outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (HPAI) H5N6 in the Philippines (particularly in Pampanga and Nueva Ecija) in August 2017, there has been an increase in the need to cull the domestic birds to control the spread of the infection. However, this control method poses a negative impact on the poultry industry. In addition, the pathogenicity and transmissibility of the H5N6 in both the birds and the humans remain largely unknown which call for the necessity to develop more s ...[more]

PMID: 30839942

Similar Datasets

Project description:From 2013 onwards, the spread of novel H5N6 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses in China has posed great threats to not only poultry industry but also human health. Since late-2016 in particular, frequent outbreaks of clade 2.3.4.4 H5N6 HPAI viruses among wild birds have promoted viral dissemination in South Korea, Japan, and European countries. In response to those trends, we conducted molecular genetic analysis of global clade 2.3.4.4 H5N6 viruses in order to characterize spatio-temporal patterns of viral diffusion and genetic diversity among wild birds and poultry. The clade 2.3.4.4 H5N6 viruses were classified into three groups (Group B, C, and D). During the cocirculation of Group C/D H5N6 viruses from 2013 to 2017, viral movements occurred between close or adjacent regions of China, Vietnam, South Korea, and Japan. In addition, viral migration rates from Guangdong and Hunan to multiple adjacent provinces seemed to have been highly supported by transmission routes (Bayes factors >100), suggesting that southern China was an epicenter for the spread of H5N6 viruses in poultry during that period. Since the introduction of H5N6 viruses originating in wild birds in late-2016, evolving H5N6 viruses have lost most previous genotypes (e.g. G1, G2, and G1.2), whereas some prevailing genotypes (e.g. G1.1, G1.1.b, and G3) in aquatic birds have been dominated, and in particular, the effective population size of H5N6 originating in wild birds dramatically increased; however, the population size of poultry-origin H5N6 viruses declined during the same period, indicating that wild bird migration might accelerate the genetic diversity of H5N6 viruses. Phylogeographic approaches revealed that two independent paths of H5N6 viruses into South Korea and Japan from 2016 to 2018 and provided evidence of Group B and Group C H5N6 viruses were originated from Europe and China, respectively, as regions located in the East Asia-Australian migration flyway, which accelerated the genetic variability and dissemination. Altogether, our study provides insights to examine time of origin, evolutionary rate, diversification patterns, and phylogeographical approach of global clade 2.3.4.4 H5N6 HPAI viruses for assessing their evolutionary process and dissemination pathways.

Project description:The Philippines confirmed its first epidemic of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) on August 11, 2017. It ended in November of 2017. Despite the successful management of the epidemic, reemergence is a continuous threat. The aim of this study was to conduct a mathematical model to assess the spatial transmission of HPAI among poultry farms in Central Luzon. Different control strategies and the current government protocol of 1 km radius pre-emptive culling (PEC) from infected farms were evaluated. The alternative strategies include 0.5km PEC, 1.5km PEC, 2 km PEC, 2.5 km PEC, and 3 km PEC, no pre-emptive culling (NPEC). The NPEC scenario was further modeled with a time of government notification set at 24hours, 48 hours, and 72 hours after the detection. Disease spread scenarios under each strategy were generated using an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed) stochastic model. A spatial transmission kernel was calculated and used to represent all potential routes of infection between farms. We assumed that the latent period occurs between 1-2 days, disease detection at 5-7 days post-infection, notification of authorities at 5-7 days post-detection and start of culling at 1-3 days post notification. The epidemic scenarios were compared based on the number of infected farms, the total number of culled farms, and the duration of the epidemic. Our results revealed that the current protocol is the most appropriate option compared with the other alternative interventions considered among farms with reproductive ratio (Ri) > 1. Shortening the culling radius to 0.5 km increased the duration of the epidemic. Further increase in the PEC zone decreased the duration of the epidemic but may not justify the increased number of farms to be culled. Nonetheless, the no-pre-emptive culling (NPEC) strategy can be an effective alternative to the current protocol if farm managers inform the government immediately within 24 hours of observation of the presence of HPAI in their farms. Moreover, if notification is made on days 1-3 after the detection, the scale and length of the outbreak have been significantly reduced. In conclusion, this study provided a comparison of various control measures for confronting the spread of HPAI infection using the simulation model. Policy makers can use this information to enhance the effectiveness of the current control strategy.

Dataset Information

Transmission dynamics and control strategies assessment of avian influenza A (H5N6) in the Philippines.

Publications

Transmission dynamics and control strategies assessment of avian influenza A (H5N6) in the Philippines.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets