Dataset Information

Predictive model and determinants of under-five child mortality: evidence from the 2014 Ghana demographic and health survey.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Globally, millions of children aged below 5?years die every year and some of these deaths could have been prevented. Though a global problem, under-five mortality is also a major public health problem in Ghana with a rate of 60 deaths per 1000 live births. Identification of drivers of mortality among children aged below 5?years is an important problem that needs to be addressed because it could help inform health policy and intervention strategies aimed at achieving the United Nations SDG Goal 3 target 2. The aim of this study is to develop a predictive model and to identify determinants of under-five mortality.

Method

The 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey data was used in this study. Analyses were conducted on 5884 children. The outcome variable is child survival status (alive or dead). Single level binary logistic and multilevel logistic regression models were employed to investigate determinants of under-five mortality. The fit of the model was checked using Variance Inflation Factor and Likelihood Ratio tests. The Receiver Operating Characteristic curve was used to assess the predictive ability of the models. A p-valueResultsThe study observed 289 (4.91%) deaths among children aged below 5?years. The study produced a good predictive model and identified increase in number of total children ever born, number of births in last 5?years, and mothers who did not intend to use contraceptive as critical risk factors that increase the odds of under-five mortality. Also, children who were born multiple and residing in certain geographical regions of Ghana is associated with increased odds of under-five mortality. Maternal education and being a female child decreased the odds of under-five mortality. No significant unobserved household-level variations in under-five mortality were found. The spatial map revealed regional differences in crude under-five mortality rate in the country.

Conclusion

This study identified critical risk factors for under-five mortality and strongly highlights the need for family planning, improvement in maternal education and addressing regional disparities in child health which could help inform health policy and intervention strategies aimed at improving child survival.

SUBMITTER: Aheto JMK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6332681 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Predictive model and determinants of under-five child mortality: evidence from the 2014 Ghana demographic and health survey.

Aheto Justice Moses K JMK

BMC public health 20190114 1

<h4>Background</h4>Globally, millions of children aged below 5 years die every year and some of these deaths could have been prevented. Though a global problem, under-five mortality is also a major public health problem in Ghana with a rate of 60 deaths per 1000 live births. Identification of drivers of mortality among children aged below 5 years is an important problem that needs to be addressed because it could help inform health policy and intervention strategies aimed at achieving the United ...[more]

PMID: 30642313

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Project description:BackgroundUnder-five mortality (U5M) rates are among the health indicators of utmost importance globally. It is the goal 3 target 2.1 of the Sustainable Development Goals that is expected to be reduced to at least 25 per 1000 livebirths by 2030. Despite a considerable reduction in U5M observed globally, several countries especially those in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) like Ghana are struggling to meet this target. Evidence-based targeting and utilization of the available limited public health resources are critical for effective design of intervention strategies that will enhance under-five child survival. We aimed to estimate and map U5M risk, with the ultimate goal of identifying communities at high risk where interventions and further research can be targeted.MethodsThe 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey data was used in this study. Geostatistical analyses were conducted on 5884 children residing in 423 geographical clusters. The outcome variable is child survival status (alive or dead). We employed a geostatistical generalised linear mixed model to investigate both measured and unmeasured child specific and spatial risk factors for child survival. We then visualise child mortality by mapping the predictive probability of survival.ResultsOf the total sampled under 5 children, 289 (4.91%) experienced the outcome of interest. Children born as multiple births were at increased risk of mortality with an adjusted odds ratio (aOR) (aOR: 8.2532, 95% CI: [5.2608-12.9477]) compared to singletons. Maternal age increased risk of mortality (aOR: 1.0325, 95% CI: [1.0128-1.0527]). Child's age (aOR: 0.2277, 95% CI: [0.1870-0.2771]) and number of children under 5 within each household (aOR: 0.3166, 95% CI: [0.2614-0.3835]) were shown to have a protective effect. Additionally, mothers with secondary education level (aOR: 0.6258, 95% CI: [0.4298-0.9114]) decreased the risk of U5M. The predicted U5M risk in 2014 was at 5.98%. Substantial residual spatial variations were observed in U5M.ConclusionThe analysis found that multiple births is highly associated with increased U5M in Ghana. The high-resolution maps show areas and communities where interventions and further research for U5M can be prioritised to have health impact.

Project description:BackgroundMaternal mortality is high in Ghana, averaging 310 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births in 2017. This is partly due to inadequate postnatal care especially among rural communities. Ghana can avert the high maternal deaths if women meet the World Health Organisation's recommended early postnatal care check-up. Despite the association between geographical location and postnatal care utilisation, no study has been done on determinants of postnatal care among rural residents in Ghana. Therefore, this study determined the prevalence and correlates of postnatal care utilization among women in rural Ghana.MethodsThe study utilised women's file of the 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey (GDHS). Following descriptive computation of the prevalence, binary logistic regression was fitted to assess correlates of postnatal care at 95% confidence interval. The results were presented in adjusted odds ratio (AOR). Any AOR less than 1 was interpreted as reduced likelihood of PNC attendance whilst AOR above 1 depicted otherwise. All analyses were done using Stata version 14.0.ResultsThe study revealed that 74% of the rural women had postnatal care. At the inferential level, women residing in Savanna zone had higher odds of postnatal care compared to those in the Coastal zone [AOR = 1.80, CI = 1.023-3.159], just as among the Guan women as compared to the Akan [AOR = 7.15, CI = 1.602-31.935]. Women who were working were more probable to utilise postnatal care compared to those not working [AOR = 1.45, CI = 1.015-2.060]. Those who considered distance as unproblematic were more likely to utilise postnatal care compared to those who considered distance as problematic [AOR = 1.63, CI = 1.239-2.145].ConclusionsThe study showed that ethnicity, ecological zone, occupation and distance to health facility predict postnatal care utilisation among rural residents of Ghana. The study points to the need for government to increase maternal healthcare facilities in rural settings in order to reduce the distance covered by women in seeking postnatal care.

Project description:BackgroundSafe disposal of children's faeces has always been one of the main challenges to good hygiene in Ghana. Although it has been proven that children's faeces are more likely to spread diseases than adults' faeces, people usually mistake them for harmlessness. This study, therefore, sought to determine the prevalence and factors associated with safe disposal of children's faeces in Ghana.MethodsData from the 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey was used for the analysis. A sample size of 2228 mother-child pairs were used for the study. The outcome variable was disposal of children stools. Both bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the factors with safe child stool disposal.ResultsThe prevalence of safe child stool disposal in Ghana was 24.5%. Women in the middle [Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 4.62; Confidence Interval (CI) = 3.00-7.10], Coastal Zone [AOR = 4.52; CI = 2.82-7.22], mothers whose children were aged 12-17 [AOR = 1.56; CI = 1.15-2.13] and 18-23 months [AOR = 1.75; CI = 1.29-2.39], and mothers whose household had improved type of toilet facility [AOR = 2.04; CI = 1.53-2.73] had higher odds of practicing safe children's faeces disposal. However, women from households with access to improved source of drinking water [AOR = 0.62; CI = 0.45-2.7] had lower odds of practicing safe children's faeces disposal.ConclusionApproximately only about 25 out of 100 women practice safe disposal of their children's faeces in Ghana. The age of the child, ecological zone, the type of toilet facilities, and the type of drinking water source are associated with the disposal of child faeces. These findings have proven that only improved sanitation (i.e. drinking water and toilet facilities) are not enough for women to safely dispose of their children's faeces. Therefore, in addition to provision of toilet facilities especially in the northern zone of Ghana, there is also the need to motivate and educate mothers on safe disposal of children's stools especially those with children below 12 months. More so, mothers without access to improved toilet facility should also be educated on the appropriate ways to bury their children's stools safely.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Under-five malnutrition is a major public health issue contributing to mortality and morbidity, especially in developing countries like Ghana where the rates remain unacceptably high. Identification of critical risk factors of under-five malnutrition using appropriate and advanced statistical methods can help formulate appropriate health programmes and policies aimed at achieving the United Nations SDG Goal 2 target 2. This study attempts to develop a simultaneous quantile regression, an in-depth statistical model to identify critical risk factors of under-five severe chronic malnutrition (severe stunting). METHODS:Based on the nationally representative data from the 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey, height-for-age z-score (HAZ) was estimated. Multivariable simultaneous quantile regression modelling was employed to identify critical risk factors for severe stunting based on HAZ (a measure of chronic malnutrition in populations). Quantiles of HAZ with focus on severe stunting were modelled and the impact of the risk factors determined. Significant test of the difference between slopes at different selected quantiles of severe stunting and other quantiles were performed. A quantile regression plots of slopes were developed to visually examine the impact of the risk factors across these quantiles. RESULTS:Data on a total of 2716 children were analysed out of which 144 (5.3%) were severely stunted. The models identified child level factors such as type of birth, sex, age, place of delivery and size at birth as significant risk factors of under-five severe stunting. Maternal and household level factors identified as significant predictors of under-five severe stunting were maternal age and education, maternal national health insurance status, household wealth status, and number of children under-five in households. Highly significant differences exist in the slopes between 0.1 and 0.9 quantiles. The quantile regression plots for the selected quantiles from 0.1 to 0.9 showed substantial differences in the impact of the covariates across the quantiles of HAZ considered. CONCLUSION:Critical risk factors that can aid formulation of child nutrition and health policies and interventions that will improve child nutritional outcomes and survival were identified. Modelling under-five severe stunting using multivariable simultaneous quantile regression models could be beneficial to addressing the under-five severe stunting.

Project description:BackgroundThe under-five child mortality rate is a widely accepted indicator of the development of a country as well as reflects the country's health care system and quality of life. Although the child mortality rate is decreasing over time in Bangladesh, the rate is still high among South Asian countries. The target of the Sustainable Development Goal-3.2 is to reduce the under-five mortality rate in all countries of the world to 25 or fewer per 1000 live births by 2030. The purpose of this study is to identify the socio-demographic factors which have an influence on under-five child mortality in Bangladesh as well as to examine whether contraceptive use has any effect on under-five mortality in Bangladesh. Finally, a comparison has been made between the results obtained from the Cox proportional Hazard Model and Weibull model to find out which model is more efficient for the study data.MethodsFor the study, data was extracted from Bangladesh Demographic Health Surveys 2017-2018 (BDHS 2017-2018). The Kaplan-Meier survival function has been used to demonstrate the survival probabilities of under-five children. While multivariate analyses of the Cox Proportional Hazard model and Weibull model are used to estimate the under-five mortality risks for various predictors.ResultsThe study results show consistently higher survival probabilities for children of mothers who used modern contraceptives during survival periods. Other significant predictors for under-five child mortality include mother's education level (higher education), mother's age (> 20), wealth index (rich), source of drinking water (tube well), and division (Chittagong, Khulna, Mymensingh). Weibull model has given more efficient results than the Cox Proportional Hazard model except for one covariate (water source).ConclusionContraceptives use significantly improves the survival chances of children under-five age. This underscores the importance of contraceptive use in the pursuit of a sustainable reduction in under-five mortality in Bangladesh. It also intensifies the need to address the present level of contraceptive use in the country. This may not be due to the use of contraceptives in itself but may be due to the substantial biological and socioeconomic benefits that are concomitant with contraceptive use which may promote both maternal and child health. So, Extra effort should be given by the policymakers to ensure the use of modern contraceptive methods to improve the under-five survival in Bangladesh.

Project description:BackgroundUnderstanding the burden and contextual risk factors is critical for developing appropriate interventions to control undernutrition.MethodsThis study used data from the 2014 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey to estimate the prevalence of underweight, stunting, and wasting. Single multiple logistic regressions were used to identify the factors associated with underweight, wasting and stunting. The study involved 2720 children aged 0-59 months old and mother pairs. All analyses were done in STATA/IC version 15.0. Statistical significance was set at p<0.05.ResultsThe prevalence of underweight, wasting and stunting were 10.4%, 5.3%, and 18.4% respectively. The age of the child was associated with underweight, wasting and stunting, whereas the sex was associated with wasting and stunting. Normal or overweight/obese maternal body mass index category, high woman's autonomy and middle-class wealth index were associated with a lower odds of undernutrition. The factors that were associated with a higher odds of child undernutrition included: low birth weight (<2.5 kg), minimum dietary diversity score (MDDS), a higher (≥4th) birth order number of child, primary educational level of husband/partner and domicile in the northern region of Ghana.ConclusionThere is still a high burden of child undernutrition in Ghana. The age, sex, birth weight, birth order and the MDDS of the child were the immediate factors associated with child undernutrition. The intermediate factors that were associated with child undernutrition were mainly maternal related factors and included maternal nutritional status and autonomy. Distal level factors which were associated with a higher odds of child undernutrition were the wealth index of the household, paternal educational status and region of residence. We recommend that interventions and policies for undernutrition should address socioeconomic inequalities at the community level while factoring in women empowerment programmes.

Dataset Information

Predictive model and determinants of under-five child mortality: evidence from the 2014 Ghana demographic and health survey.

Background

Method

Conclusion

Publications

Predictive model and determinants of under-five child mortality: evidence from the 2014 Ghana demographic and health survey.

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