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A sample model established by S-index predicting overall survival after curative resection of primary hepatocellular carcinoma.

ABSTRACT: Purpose:Prognostic prediction after curative resection of primary hepatocellular carcinoma (PHCC) remains an arduous task. The S-index calculated from ?-glutamyl transpeptidase, albumin, and platelets is reported to predict the severity of liver fibrosis. We constructed a nomogram for predicting the survival probability of PHCC based on a new indicator, the S-index, combined with other routine clinical parameters. Patients and methods:We selected 490 patients with PHCC postradical surgery at the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University between January 2007 and January 2014. The subjects were randomly allocated into the training cohort and the validation cohort in the ratio 7:3 by the digital method. Important variables screened by univariate analysis were included in multivariate analysis to obtain independent risk factors for predicting the prognosis of PHCC. The construction of the nomogram was based on Cox proportional hazard regression models. The concordance index (C-index) was used in the nomogram for evaluating the model performance for prognosis. We drew time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves to compare our model with other staging systems. Results:The nomogram based on six independent risk factors after multivariate analyses had good predictive power after radical surgery of PHCC. In the training and validation groups, the C-index of the nomogram was highly consistent for evaluating survival from PHCC. Compared with the traditional scoring system, the areas under time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.7382, 0.7293, and 0.7520 for 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival, respectively. In summary, the nomogram showed excellent results in terms of prognosis of PHCC. Conclusion:Based on the S-index and the other clinical indicators, we developed a precise nomogram that predicts the survival probability of patients with PHCC after radical surgery. This tool can provide effective information for surgeons and patients.

SUBMITTER: Chen L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6338126 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A sample model established by S-index predicting overall survival after curative resection of primary hepatocellular carcinoma.

Chen Lei L Cai Bin-Bin BB Zhou Chao-Jun CJ Hou Xiang-Qing XQ Hu Si-Pin SP Fang Guan G Chen Wen-Chao WC Li Lin-Hui LH Yang Wen-Jun WJ

Cancer management and research 20190114

<h4>Purpose</h4>Prognostic prediction after curative resection of primary hepatocellular carcinoma (PHCC) remains an arduous task. The S-index calculated from γ-glutamyl transpeptidase, albumin, and platelets is reported to predict the severity of liver fibrosis. We constructed a nomogram for predicting the survival probability of PHCC based on a new indicator, the S-index, combined with other routine clinical parameters.<h4>Patients and methods</h4>We selected 490 patients with PHCC postradical ...[more]

PMID: 30679923

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Project description:Adrenocortical carcinoma (ACC) is a rare but aggressive endocrine tumor, and the prognostic factors associated with long-term outcomes after surgical resection remain poorly defined.To define clinicopathological variables associated with recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) after curative surgical resection of ACC and to propose nomograms for individual risk prediction.Nomograms to predict RFS and OS after surgical resection of ACC were proposed using a multi-institutional cohort of patients who underwent curative-intent surgery for ACC at 13 major institutions in the United States between March 17, 1994, and December 22, 2014. The dates of our study analysis were April 15, 2015, to May 12, 2015.The discriminative ability and calibration of the nomograms to predict RFS and OS were tested using C statistics, calibration plots, and Kaplan-Meier curves.In total, 148 patients who underwent surgery for ACC were included in the study. The median patient age was 53 years, and 65.5% (97 of 148) of the patients were female. One-third of the patients (35.1% [52 of 148]) had a functional tumor, and the median tumor size was 11.2 cm. Most patients (77.7% [115 of 148]) underwent R0 resection, and 8.8% (13 of 148) of the patients had N1 disease. Using backward stepwise selection of clinically important variables with the Akaike information criterion, the following variables were incorporated in the prediction of RFS: tumor size of at least 12 cm (hazard ratio [HR], 3.00; 95% CI, 1.63-5.70; P <?.001), positive nodal status (HR, 4.78; 95% CI, 1.47-15.50; P =?.01), stage III/IV (HR, 1.80; 95% CI, 0.95-3.39; P =?.07), cortisol-secreting tumor (HR, 2.38; 95% CI, 1.27-4.48; P =?.01), and capsular invasion (HR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.02-3.74; P =?.04). Factors selected as predicting OS were tumor size of at least 12 cm (HR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.00-3.17; P =?.05), positive nodal status (HR, 5.89; 95% CI, 2.05-16.87; P =?.001), and R1 margin (HR, 2.83; 95% CI, 1.51-5.30; P =?.001). The discriminative ability and calibration of the nomograms revealed good predictive ability as indicated by the C statistics (0.74 for RFS and 0.70 for OS).Independent predictors of survival and recurrence risk after curative-intent surgery for ACC were selected to create nomograms predicting RFS and OS. The nomograms were able to stratify patients into prognostic groups and performed well on internal validation.

Project description:BackgroundFew studies have focused on the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage 0‒C in terms of early recurrence and 5-years overall survival (OS). We sought to develop nomograms for predicting 5-year OS and early recurrence after curative resection of HCC, based on a clinicopathological‒radiological model. We also investigated whether different treatment methods influenced the OS of patients with early recurrence.MethodsRetrospective data, including clinical pathology, radiology, and follow-up data, were collected for 494 patients with HCC who underwent hepatectomy. Nomograms estimating OS and early recurrence were constructed using multivariate Cox regression analysis, based on the random survival forest (RSF) model. We evaluated the discrimination and calibration abilities of the nomograms using concordance indices (C-index), calibration curves, and Kaplan‒Meier curves. OS curves of different treatments for patients who had recurrence within 2 years after curative surgery were depicted and compared using the Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test.ResultsMultivariate Cox regression revealed that BCLC stage, non-smooth margin, maximum tumor diameter, age, aspartate aminotransferase levels, microvascular invasion, and differentiation were prognostic factors for OS and were incorporated into the nomogram with good predictive performance in the training (C-index: 0.787) and testing cohorts (C-index: 0.711). A nomogram for recurrence-free survival was also developed based on four prognostic factors (BCLC stage, non-smooth margin, maximum tumor diameter, and microvascular invasion) with good predictive performance in the training (C-index: 0.717) and testing cohorts (C-index: 0.701). In comparison to the BCLC staging system, the C-index (training cohort: 0.787 vs. 0.678, 0.717 vs. 0.675; external cohort 2: 0.748 vs. 0.624, 0.729 vs. 0.587 respectively, for OS and RFS; external cohort1:0.716 vs. 0.627 for RFS, all p value<0.05), and model calibration curves all showed improved performance. Patients who underwent surgery after tumor recurrence had a higher reOS than those who underwent comprehensive treatments and supportive care.ConclusionsThe nomogram, based on clinical, pathological, and radiological factors, demonstrated good accuracy in estimating OS and recurrence, which can guide follow-up and treatment of individual patients. Reoperation may be the best option for patients with recurrence in good condition.

Dataset Information

A sample model established by S-index predicting overall survival after curative resection of primary hepatocellular carcinoma.

Publications

A sample model established by S-index predicting overall survival after curative resection of primary hepatocellular carcinoma.

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