Dataset Information

A combination of climatic conditions determines major within-season dengue outbreaks in Guangdong Province, China.

ABSTRACT:

Background

China's Guangdong Province experienced a major dengue outbreak in 2014. Here we investigate if the weather conditions contributing to the outbreak can be elucidated by multi-scale models.

Methods

A multi-scale modelling framework, parameterized by available weather, vector and human case data, was used to examine the integrative effect of temperature and precipitation variation on the effective reproduction number (ERN) of dengue fever.

Results

With temperature in the range of 25-30 °C, increasing precipitation leads to an increase in the ERN with an average lag of 10 days. With monthly precipitation fixed, the more regular the pattern of rainfall (i.e. higher numbers of rainy days), the larger is the total number of adult mosquitoes. A rainfall distribution peaking in June and July produces a large ERN, beneficial to transmission. Climate conditions conducive to major outbreaks within a season are a combination of relatively high temperature, high precipitation peaking in June and July, and uninterrupted drizzle or regular rainfall.

Conclusions

Evaluating a set of weather conditions favourable to a future major dengue outbreak requires near-future prediction of temperature variation, total rainfall and its peaking times. Such information permits seasonal rapid response management decisions due to the lags between the precipitation events and the realisation of the ERN.

SUBMITTER: Wang X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6341621 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

A combination of climatic conditions determines major within-season dengue outbreaks in Guangdong Province, China.

Wang Xia X Tang Sanyi S Wu Jianhong J Xiao Yanni Y Cheke Robert A RA

Parasites & vectors 20190121 1

<h4>Background</h4>China's Guangdong Province experienced a major dengue outbreak in 2014. Here we investigate if the weather conditions contributing to the outbreak can be elucidated by multi-scale models.<h4>Methods</h4>A multi-scale modelling framework, parameterized by available weather, vector and human case data, was used to examine the integrative effect of temperature and precipitation variation on the effective reproduction number (ERN) of dengue fever.<h4>Results</h4>With temperature i ...[more]

PMID: 30665469

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Project description:Dengue fever (DF) is a mosquito-borne infectious disease that is now an epidemic in China, Guangdong Province, in particular and presents high incidence rates of DF. Effective preventive measures are critical for controlling DF in China given the absence of a licensed vaccination program in the country. This study aimed to explore the individual risk factors for the dengue virus infection in Guangdong Province and to provide a scientific basis for the future prevention and control of DF. A case-control study including 237 cases and 237 controls was performed. Cases were defined for samples who were IgG-antibody positive or IgM-antibody positive, and willing to participate in the questionnaire survey. Additionally, the controls were selected through frequency matching by age, gender and community information from individuals who tested negative for IgG and IgM and volunteered to become part of the samples. Data were collected from epidemiological questionnaires. Univariate analysis was performed for the preliminary screening of 28 variables that were potentially related to dengue virus infection, and multivariate analysis was performed through unconditioned logistic regression analysis to analyze statistically significant variables. Multivariate analysis revealed two independent risk factors: Participation in outdoor sports (odds ratio (OR) = 1.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.17 to 2.78), and poor indoor daylight quality (OR = 2.27, 95% CI 1.03 to 5.03). Two protective factors were identified through multivariate analysis: 2 occupants per room (OR = 0.43, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.65) or ≥3 occupants per room (OR = 0.45, 95% CI 0.23 to 0.89) and air-conditioner use (OR = 0.46, 95% CI 0.22 to 0.97). The results of this study were conducive for investigating the risk factors for dengue virus infection in Guangdong Province. Effective and efficient strategies for improving environmental protection and anti-mosquito measures must be provided. In addition, additional systematic studies are needed to explore other potential risk factors for DF.

Dataset Information

A combination of climatic conditions determines major within-season dengue outbreaks in Guangdong Province, China.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

A combination of climatic conditions determines major within-season dengue outbreaks in Guangdong Province, China.

Similar Datasets

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