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A local evaluation of the individual state-space to scale up Bayesian spatial capture-recapture.

ABSTRACT: Spatial capture-recapture models (SCR) are used to estimate animal density and to investigate a range of problems in spatial ecology that cannot be addressed with traditional nonspatial methods. Bayesian approaches in particular offer tremendous flexibility for SCR modeling. Increasingly, SCR data are being collected over very large spatial extents making analysis computational intensive, sometimes prohibitively so. To mitigate the computational burden of large-scale SCR models, we developed an improved formulation of the Bayesian SCR model that uses local evaluation of the individual state-space (LESS). Based on prior knowledge about a species' home range size, we created square evaluation windows that restrict the spatial domain in which an individual's detection probability (detector window) and activity center location (AC window) are estimated. We used simulations and empirical data analyses to assess the performance and bias of SCR with LESS. LESS produced unbiased estimates of SCR parameters when the AC window width was ?5? (?: the scale parameter of the half-normal detection function), and when the detector window extended beyond the edge of the AC window by 2?. Importantly, LESS considerably decreased the computation time needed for fitting SCR models. In our simulations, LESS increased the computation speed of SCR models up to 57-fold. We demonstrate the power of this new approach by mapping the density of an elusive large carnivore-the wolverine (Gulo gulo)-with an unprecedented resolution and across the species' entire range in Norway (> 200,000 km2). Our approach helps overcome a major computational obstacle to population and landscape-level SCR analyses. The LESS implementation in a Bayesian framework makes the customization and fitting of SCR accessible for practitioners working at scales that are relevant for conservation and management.

SUBMITTER: Milleret C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6342129 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models have become the preferred tool for estimating densities of carnivores. Within this family of models are variants requiring identification of all individuals in each encounter (SCR), a subset of individuals only (generalized spatial mark-resight, gSMR), or no individual identification (spatial count or spatial presence-absence). Although each technique has been shown through simulation to yield unbiased results, the consistency and relative precision of estimates across methods in real-world settings are seldom considered. We tested a suite of models ranging from those only requiring detections of unmarked individuals to others that integrate remote camera, physical capture, genetic, and global positioning system (GPS) data into a hybrid model, to estimate population densities of black bears, bobcats, cougars, and coyotes. For each species, we genotyped fecal DNA collected with detection dogs during a 20-d period. A subset of individuals from each species was affixed with GPS collars bearing unique markings and resighted by remote cameras over 140 d contemporaneous with scat collection. Camera-based gSMR models produced density estimates that differed by <10% from genetic SCR for bears, cougars, and coyotes once important sources of variation (sex or behavioral status) were controlled for. For bobcats, SCR estimates were 33% higher than gSMR. The cause of the discrepancies in estimates was likely attributable to challenges designing a study compatible for species with disparate home range sizes and the difficulty of collecting sufficient data in a timeframe in which demographic closure could be assumed. Unmarked models estimated densities that varied greatly from SCR, but estimates became more consistent in models wherein more individuals were identifiable. Hybrid models containing all data sources exhibited the most precise estimates for all species. For studies in which only sparse data can be obtained and the strictest model assumptions are unlikely to be met, we suggest researchers use caution making inference from models lacking individual identity. For best results, we further recommend the use of methods requiring at least a subset of the population is marked and that multiple data sets are incorporated when possible.

Project description:Population size is one of the basic demographic parameters for species management and conservation. Among different estimation methods, spatially explicit capture-recapture (SCR) models allow the estimation of population density in a framework that has been greatly developed in recent years. The use of automated detection devices, such as camera traps, has impressively extended SCR studies for individually identifiable species. However, its application to unmarked/partially marked species remains challenging, and no specific method has been widely used. We fitted an SCR-integrated model (SCR-IM) to stone marten Martes foina data, a species for which only some individuals are individually recognizable by natural marks, and estimate population size based on integration of three submodels: (1) individual capture histories from live capture and transponder tagging; (2) detection/nondetection or "occupancy" data using camera traps in a bigger area to extend the geographic scope of capture-recapture data; and (3) telemetry data from a set of tagged individuals. We estimated a stone marten density of 0.352 (SD: 0.081) individuals/km2. We simulated four dilution scenarios of occupancy data to study the variation in the coefficient of variation in population size estimates. We also used simulations with similar characteristics as the stone marten case study, comparing the accuracy and precision obtained from SCR-IM and SCR, to understand how submodels' integration affects the posterior distributions of estimated parameters. Based on our simulations, we found that population size estimates using SCR-IM are more accurate and precise. In our stone marten case study, the SCR-IM density estimation increased the precision by 37% when compared to the standard SCR model as regards to the coefficient of variation. This model has high potential to be used for species in which individual recognition by natural markings is not possible, therefore limiting the need to rely on invasive sampling procedures.

Project description:Many large carnivores occupy a wide geographic distribution, and face threats from habitat loss and fragmentation, poaching, prey depletion, and human wildlife-conflicts. Conservation requires robust techniques for estimating population densities and trends, but the elusive nature and low densities of many large carnivores make them difficult to detect. Spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models provide a means for handling imperfect detectability, while linking population estimates to individual movement patterns to provide more accurate estimates than standard approaches. Within this framework, we investigate the effect of different sample interval lengths on density estimates, using simulations and a common leopard (Panthera pardus) model system. We apply Bayesian SCR methods to 89 simulated datasets and camera-trapping data from 22 leopards captured 82 times during winter 2010-2011 in Royal Manas National Park, Bhutan. We show that sample interval length from daily, weekly, monthly or quarterly periods did not appreciably affect median abundance or density, but did influence precision. We observed the largest gains in precision when moving from quarterly to shorter intervals. We therefore recommend daily sampling intervals for monitoring rare or elusive species where practicable, but note that monthly or quarterly sample periods can have similar informative value. We further develop a novel application of Bayes factors to select models where multiple ecological factors are integrated into density estimation. Our simulations demonstrate that these methods can help identify the "true" explanatory mechanisms underlying the data. Using this method, we found strong evidence for sex-specific movement distributions in leopards, suggesting that sexual patterns of space-use influence density. This model estimated a density of 10.0 leopards/100 km2 (95% credibility interval: 6.25-15.93), comparable to contemporary estimates in Asia. These SCR methods provide a guide to monitor and observe the effect of management interventions on leopards and other species of conservation interest.

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A local evaluation of the individual state-space to scale up Bayesian spatial capture-recapture.

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