Trends of Human Plague, Madagascar, 1998-2016.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Andrianaivoarimanana V
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6346457 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundPlague is a highly infectious zoonotic disease caused by the bacillus Yersinia pestis. Three major forms of the disease are known: bubonic, septicemic, and pneumonic plague. Though highly related to the past, plague still represents a global public health concern. Cases of plague continue to be reported worldwide. In recent months, pneumonic plague cases have been reported in Madagascar. However, despite such a long-standing and rich history, it is rather difficult to get a comprehensive overview of the general situation. Within the framework of electronic health (eHealth), in which people increasingly search the internet looking for health-related material, new information and communication technologies could enable researchers to get a wealth of data, which could complement traditional surveillance of infectious diseases.ObjectiveIn this study, we aimed to assess public reaction regarding the recent plague outbreak in Madagascar by quantitatively characterizing the public's interest.MethodsWe captured public interest using Google Trends (GT) and correlated it to epidemiological real-world data in terms of incidence rate and spread pattern.ResultsStatistically significant positive correlations were found between GT search data and confirmed (R2=0.549), suspected (R2=0.265), and probable (R2=0.518) cases. From a geospatial standpoint, plague-related GT queries were concentrated in Toamasina (100%), Toliara (68%), and Antananarivo (65%). Concerning the forecasting models, the 1-day lag model was selected as the best regression model.ConclusionsAn earlier digital Web search reaction could potentially contribute to better management of outbreaks, for example, by designing ad hoc interventions that could contain the infection both locally and at the international level, reducing its spread.
| S-EPMC6429048 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC7148951 | biostudies-literature
Project description:During a pneumonic plague outbreak in Moramanga, Madagascar, we identified 4 confirmed, 1 presumptive, and 9 suspected plague case-patients. Human-to-human transmission among close contacts was high (reproductive number 1.44) and the case fatality rate was 71%. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the Yersinia pestis isolates belonged to group q3, different from the previous outbreak.
| S-EPMC5382734 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The third plague pandemic originated from Yunnan Province, China in the middle of the 19th century. The last human plague epidemic in Yunnan occurred from 1986-2005. On June 6, 2016, a case of human plague was reported in the Xishuangbanna Prefecture, Yunnan. The patient suffered from primary septicemic plague after exposure to a dead house rat (Rattus flavipectus), which has been identified as the main plague reservoir in the local epizootic area. Moreover, a retrospective investigation identified another bubonic plague case in this area. Based on these data, human plague reemerged after a silent period of ten years. In this study, three molecular typing methods, including a clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR) analysis, different region analysis (DFR), and multiple-locus variable number of tandem repeats analysis (MLVA), were used to illustrate the molecular characteristics of Yersinia pestis (Y. pestis) strains isolated in Yunnan. The DFR profiles of the strains isolated in Yunnan in 2016 were the same as the strains that had previously been isolated in this Rattus flavipectus plague focus. The c3 spacer present in the previously isolated strains was absent in the spacer arrays of the Ypc CRISPR loci of the strains isolated in 2016. The MLVA analysis using MLVA (14+12) showed that the strains isolated from the human plague case and host animal plague infection in 2016 in Yunnan displayed different molecular patterns than the strains that had previously been isolated from Yunnan and adjacent provinces.
| S-EPMC5999221 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and purposeFindings from the Framingham Heart Study suggest that declines in dementia incidence rates over recent decades are partially due to decreases in stroke incidence and mortality; however, whether trends of declining dementia rates extend to survivors of incident stroke remains unclear. We investigated evidence for temporal trends in memory change related to incident stroke in a nationally representative cohort.MethodsAdults age 50+ in the HRS (Health and Retirement Study) were followed across three successive 6-year epochs (epoch 1: 1998-2004, n=16 781; epoch 2: 2004-2010, n=15 345; and epoch 3: 2010-2016; n=15 949). Participants were included in an epoch if they were stroke-free at the start of that epoch. Annual rates of change in a composite z-standardized memory score were compared using demographic-adjusted linear regression models for stroke-free participants, those who survived after stroke, and those who died after stroke, considering memory change before stroke, at the time of stroke, and for years following stroke.ResultsCrude stroke incidence rates decreased from 8.5 per 1000 person-years in epoch 1 to 6.8 per 1000 person-years in epoch 3. Rates of memory change before and following stroke onset were similar across epochs. Memory decrement immediately after stroke onset attenuated from -0.37 points (95% CI, -0.44 to -0.29) in epoch 1 to -0.26 (95% CI, -0.33 to -0.18) points in epoch 2 and -0.25 (95% CI, -0.33 to -0.17) points in epoch 3 (P value for linear trend=0.02).ConclusionsDecreases in stroke-related dementia in recent years may be partially attributable to smaller memory decrements immediately after stroke onset. Findings suggest reductions in stroke incidence and improvements in stroke care may also reduce population burden of dementia. Further investigations into whether temporal trends are attributable to improvements in stroke care are needed.
| S-EPMC9132341 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPlague, a zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis, is found in Asia and the Americas, but predominantly in Africa, with the island of Madagascar reporting almost one third of human cases worldwide. Plague's occurrence is affected by local climate factors which in turn are influenced by large-scale climate phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The effects of ENSO on regional climate are often enhanced or reduced by a second large-scale climate phenomenon, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). It is known that ENSO and the IOD interact as drivers of disease. Yet the impacts of these phenomena in driving plague dynamics via their effect on regional climate, and specifically contributing to the foci of transmission on Madagascar, are unknown. Here we present the first analysis of the effects of ENSO and IOD on plague in Madagascar.Methodology/principal findingsWe use a forty-eight year monthly time-series of reported human plague cases from 1960 to 2008. Using wavelet analysis, we show that over the last fifty years there have been complex non-stationary associations between ENSO/IOD and the dynamics of plague in Madagascar. We demonstrate that ENSO and IOD influence temperature in Madagascar and that temperature and plague cycles are associated. The effects on plague appear to be mediated more by temperature, but precipitation also undoubtedly influences plague in Madagascar. Our results confirm a relationship between plague anomalies and an increase in the intensity of ENSO events and precipitation.Conclusions/significanceThis work widens the understanding of how climate factors acting over different temporal scales can combine to drive local disease dynamics. Given the association of increasing ENSO strength and plague anomalies in Madagascar it may in future be possible to forecast plague outbreaks in Madagascar. The study gives insight into the complex and changing relationship between climate factors and plague in Madagascar.
| S-EPMC4191945 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVES:We aimed to compile and normalise England's national prescribing data for 1998-2016 to facilitate research on long-term time trends and create an open-data exploration tool for wider use. DESIGN:We compiled data from each individual year's national statistical publications and normalised them by mapping each drug to its current classification within the national formulary where possible. We created a freely accessible, interactive web tool to allow anyone to interact with the processed data. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS:We downloaded all available annual prescription cost analysis datasets, which include cost and quantity for all prescription items dispensed in the community in England. Medical devices and appliances were excluded. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES:We measured the extent of normalisation of data and aimed to produce a functioning accessible analysis tool. RESULTS:All data were imported successfully. 87.5% of drugs were matched exactly on name to the current formulary and a further 6.5% to similar drug names. All drugs in core clinical chapters were reconciled to their current location in the data schema, with only 1.26% of drugs not assigned a current chemical code. We created an openly accessible interactive tool to facilitate wider use of these data. CONCLUSIONS:Publicly available data can be made accessible through interactive online tools to help researchers and policy-makers explore time trends in prescribing.
| S-EPMC5855401 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMonitoring of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in animals is essential for public health surveillance. To enhance interpretation of monitoring data, evaluation and optimisation of AMR trend analysis is needed.AimsTo quantify and evaluate trends in AMR in commensal Escherichia coli, using data from the Dutch national AMR monitoring programme in livestock (1998-2016).MethodsFaecal samples were collected at slaughter from broilers, pigs and veal calves. Minimum inhibitory concentration values were obtained by broth microdilution for E. coli for 15 antimicrobials of eight antimicrobial classes. A Poisson regression model was applied to resistant isolate counts, with explanatory variables representing time before and after 2009 (reference year); for veal calves, sampling changed from 2012 represented by an extra explanatory variable.ResultsResistant counts increased significantly from 1998-2009 in broilers and pigs, except for tetracyclines and sulfamethoxazole in broilers and chloramphenicol and aminoglycosides in pigs. Since 2009, resistant counts decreased for all antimicrobials in broilers and for all but the phenicols in pigs. In veal calves, for most antimicrobials no significant decrease in resistant counts could be determined for 2009-16, except for sulfamethoxazole and nalidixic acid. Within animal species, antimicrobial-specific trends were similar.ConclusionsUsing Dutch monitoring data from 1998-2016, this study quantified AMR trends in broilers and slaughter pigs and showed significant trend changes in the reference year 2009. We showed that monitoring in commensal E. coli is useful to quantify trends and detect trend changes in AMR. This model is applicable to similar data from other European countries.
| S-EPMC6593905 | biostudies-literature
Project description:UNLABELLED:A cluster of human plague cases occurred in the seaport city of Mahajanga, Madagascar, from 1991 to 1999 following 62 years with no evidence of plague, which offered insights into plague pathogen dynamics in an urban environment. We analyzed a set of 44 Mahajanga isolates from this 9-year outbreak, as well as an additional 218 Malagasy isolates from the highland foci. We sequenced the genomes of four Mahajanga strains, performed whole-genome sequence single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) discovery on those strains, screened the discovered SNPs, and performed a high-resolution 43-locus multilocus variable-number tandem-repeat analysis of the isolate panel. Twenty-two new SNPs were identified and defined a new phylogenetic lineage among the Malagasy isolates. Phylogeographic analysis suggests that the Mahajanga lineage likely originated in the Ambositra district in the highlands, spread throughout the northern central highlands, and was then introduced into and became transiently established in Mahajanga. Although multiple transfers between the central highlands and Mahajanga occurred, there was a locally differentiating and dominant subpopulation that was primarily responsible for the 1991-to-1999 Mahajanga outbreaks. Phylotemporal analysis of this Mahajanga subpopulation revealed a cycling pattern of diversity generation and loss that occurred during and after each outbreak. This pattern is consistent with severe interseasonal genetic bottlenecks along with large seasonal population expansions. The ultimate extinction of plague pathogens in Mahajanga suggests that, in this environment, the plague pathogen niche is tenuous at best. However, the temporary large pathogen population expansion provides the means for plague pathogens to disperse and become ecologically established in more suitable nonurban environments. IMPORTANCE:Maritime spread of plague led to the global dissemination of this disease and affected the course of human history. Multiple historical plague waves resulted in massive human mortalities in three classical plague pandemics: Justinian (6th and 7th centuries), Middle Ages (14th to 17th centuries), and third (mid-1800s to the present). Key to these events was the pathogen's entry into new lands by "plague ships" via seaport cities. Although initial disease outbreaks in ports were common, they were almost never sustained for long and plague pathogens survived only if they could become established in ecologically suitable habitats. Although plague pathogens' ability to invade port cities has been essential for intercontinental spread, these regions have not proven to be a suitable long-term niche. The disease dynamics in port cities such as Mahajanga are thus critical to plague pathogen amplification and dispersal into new suitable ecological niches for the observed global long-term maintenance of plague pathogens.
| S-EPMC3573667 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC4111190 | biostudies-literature