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An ecologically constrained procedure for sensitivity analysis of Artificial Neural Networks and other empirical models.

ABSTRACT: Sensitivity analysis applied to Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) as well as to other types of empirical ecological models allows assessing the importance of environmental predictive variables in affecting species distribution or other target variables. However, approaches that only consider values of the environmental variables that are likely to be observed in real-world conditions, given the underlying ecological relationships with other variables, have not yet been proposed. Here, a constrained sensitivity analysis procedure is presented, which evaluates the importance of the environmental variables considering only their plausible changes, thereby exploring only ecological meaningful scenarios. To demonstrate the procedure, we applied it to an ANN model predicting fish species richness, as identifying relationships between environmental variables and fish species occurrence in river ecosystems is a recurring topic in freshwater ecology. Results showed that several environmental variables played a less relevant role in driving the model output when that sensitivity analysis allowed them to vary only within an ecologically meaningful range of values, i.e. avoiding values that the model would never handle in its practical applications. By comparing percent changes in MSE between constrained and unconstrained sensitivity analysis, the relative importance of environmental variables was found to be different, with habitat descriptors and urbanization factors that played a more relevant role according to the constrained procedure. The ecologically constrained procedure can be applied to any sensitivity analysis method for ANNs, but obviously it can also be applied to other types of empirical ecological models.

SUBMITTER: Franceschini S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6353184 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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An ecologically constrained procedure for sensitivity analysis of Artificial Neural Networks and other empirical models.

Franceschini Simone S Tancioni Lorenzo L Lorenzoni Massimo M Mattei Francesco F Scardi Michele M

PloS one 20190130 1

Sensitivity analysis applied to Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) as well as to other types of empirical ecological models allows assessing the importance of environmental predictive variables in affecting species distribution or other target variables. However, approaches that only consider values of the environmental variables that are likely to be observed in real-world conditions, given the underlying ecological relationships with other variables, have not yet been proposed. Here, a constrai ...[more]

PMID: 30699204

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Project description:Sympatric speciation can arise as a result of disruptive selection with assortative mating as a pleiotropic by-product. Studies on host choice, employing artificial neural networks as models for the host recognition system in exploiters, illustrate how disruptive selection on host choice coupled with assortative mating can arise as a consequence of selection for specialization. Our studies demonstrate that a generalist exploiter population can evolve into a guild of specialists with an 'ideal free' frequency distribution across hosts. The ideal free distribution arises from variability in host suitability and density-dependent exploiter fitness on different host species. Specialists are less subject to inter-phenotypic competition than generalists and to harmful mutations that are common in generalists exploiting multiple hosts. When host signals used as cues by exploiters coevolve with exploiter recognition systems, our studies show that evolutionary changes may be continuous and cyclic. Selection changes back and forth between specialization and generalization in the exploiters, and weak and strong mimicry in the hosts, where non-defended hosts use the host investing in defence as a model. Thus, host signals and exploiter responses are engaged in a red-queen mimicry process that is ultimately cyclic rather then directional. In one phase, evolving signals of exploitable hosts mimic those of hosts less suitable for exploitation (i.e. the model). Signals in the model hosts also evolve through selection to escape the mimic and its exploiters. Response saturation constraints in the model hosts lead to the mimic hosts finally perfecting its mimicry, after which specialization in the exploiter guild is lost. This loss of exploiter specialization provides an opportunity for the model hosts to escape their mimics. Therefore, this cycle then repeats. We suggest that a species can readily evolve sympatrically when disruptive selection for specialization on hosts is the first step. In a sexual reproduction setting, partial reproductive isolation may first evolve by mate choice being confined to individuals on the same host. Secondly, this disruptive selection will favour assortative mate choice on genotype, thereby leading to increased reproductive isolation.

Project description:BackgroundExogenous short interfering RNAs (siRNAs) induce a gene knockdown effect in cells by interacting with naturally occurring RNA processing machinery. However not all siRNAs induce this effect equally. Several heterogeneous kinds of machine learning techniques and feature sets have been applied to modeling siRNAs and their abilities to induce knockdown. There is some growing agreement to which techniques produce maximally predictive models and yet there is little consensus for methods to compare among predictive models. Also, there are few comparative studies that address what the effect of choosing learning technique, feature set or cross validation approach has on finding and discriminating among predictive models.Principal findingsThree learning techniques were used to develop predictive models for effective siRNA sequences including Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), General Linear Models (GLMs) and Support Vector Machines (SVMs). Five feature mapping methods were also used to generate models of siRNA activities. The 2 factors of learning technique and feature mapping were evaluated by complete 3x5 factorial ANOVA. Overall, both learning techniques and feature mapping contributed significantly to the observed variance in predictive models, but to differing degrees for precision and accuracy as well as across different kinds and levels of model cross-validation.ConclusionsThe methods presented here provide a robust statistical framework to compare among models developed under distinct learning techniques and feature sets for siRNAs. Further comparisons among current or future modeling approaches should apply these or other suitable statistically equivalent methods to critically evaluate the performance of proposed models. ANN and GLM techniques tend to be more sensitive to the inclusion of noisy features, but the SVM technique is more robust under large numbers of features for measures of model precision and accuracy. Features found to result in maximally predictive models are not consistent across learning techniques, suggesting care should be taken in the interpretation of feature relevance. In the models developed here, there are statistically differentiable combinations of learning techniques and feature mapping methods where the SVM technique under a specific combination of features significantly outperforms all the best combinations of features within the ANN and GLM techniques.

Dataset Information

An ecologically constrained procedure for sensitivity analysis of Artificial Neural Networks and other empirical models.

Publications

An ecologically constrained procedure for sensitivity analysis of Artificial Neural Networks and other empirical models.

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