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An algorithm applied to national surveillance data for the early detection of major dengue outbreaks in Cambodia.

ABSTRACT: Dengue is a national priority disease in Cambodia. The Cambodian National Dengue Surveillance System is based on passive surveillance of dengue-like inpatients reported by public hospitals and on a sentinel, pediatric hospital-based active surveillance system. This system works well to assess trends but the sensitivity of the early warning and time-lag to usefully inform hospitals can be improved. During The ECOnomic development, ECOsystem MOdifications, and emerging infectious diseases Risk Evaluation (ECOMORE) project's knowledge translation platforms, Cambodian hospital staff requested an early warning tool to prepare for major outbreaks. Our objective was therefore to find adapted tools to improve the early warning system and preparedness. Dengue data was provided by the National Dengue Control Program (NDCP) and are routinely obtained through passive surveillance. The data were analyzed at the provincial level for eight Cambodian provinces during 2008-2015. The R surveillance package was used for the analysis. We evaluated the effectiveness of Bayesian algorithms to detect outbreaks using count data series, comparing the current count to an expected distribution obtained from observations of past years. The analyses bore on 78,759 patients with dengue-like syndromes. The algorithm maximizing sensitivity and specificity for the detection of major dengue outbreaks was selected in each province. The overall sensitivity and specificity were 73% and 97%, respectively, for the detection of significant outbreaks during 2008-2015. Depending on the province, sensitivity and specificity ranged from 50% to 100% and 75% to 100%, respectively. The final algorithm meets clinicians' and decisionmakers' needs, is cost-free and is easy to implement at the provincial level.

SUBMITTER: Ledien J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6366704 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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An algorithm applied to national surveillance data for the early detection of major dengue outbreaks in Cambodia.

Ledien Julia J Souv Kimsan K Leang Rithea R Huy Rekol R Cousien Anthony A Peas Muslim M Froehlich Yves Y Duboz Raphaël R Ong Sivuth S Duong Veasna V Buchy Philippe P Dussart Philippe P Tarantola Arnaud A

PloS one 20190207 2

Dengue is a national priority disease in Cambodia. The Cambodian National Dengue Surveillance System is based on passive surveillance of dengue-like inpatients reported by public hospitals and on a sentinel, pediatric hospital-based active surveillance system. This system works well to assess trends but the sensitivity of the early warning and time-lag to usefully inform hospitals can be improved. During The ECOnomic development, ECOsystem MOdifications, and emerging infectious diseases Risk Eva ...[more]

PMID: 30730979

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Project description:BackgroundWhile early detection and effective control of epidemics depend on appropriate surveillance methods, the Philippines bases its dengue fever surveillance system on a passive surveillance method (notifications from barangay/village health centers, municipal or city health offices, hospitals, and clinics). There is no available mHealth (mobile health) app for dengue fever that includes all the appropriate surveillance methods in early detection of disease outbreaks in the country.ObjectiveThis study aimed to evaluate the usability of the Mozzify app in terms of objective quality (engagement, functionality, aesthetics, information) and app subjective and app-specific qualities and compare total app mean score ratings by sociodemographic profile and self and family dengue fever history to see what factors are associated with high app mean score rating among school-based young adult samples and health care professionals. Individual interviews and focus group discussions were also conducted among participants to develop themes from their comments and suggestions to help structure further improvement and future development of the app.MethodsUser experience sessions were conducted among participants, and the Mobile Application Rating Scale (MARS) professional and user versions (uMARS) were administered followed by individual interviews and focus group discussions. Descriptive statistical analysis of the MARS and uMARS score ratings was performed. The total app mean score ratings by sociodemographic and dengue fever history using nonparametric mean difference analyses were also conducted. Thematic synthesis was used to develop themes from the comments and suggestions raised in individual interviews and focus group discussions.ResultsMozzify obtained an overall >4 (out of 5) mean score ratings in the MARS and uMARS app objective quality (4.45), subjective (4.17), and specific (4.55) scales among 948 participants (79 health care professionals and 869 school-based samples). Mean difference analyses revealed that total app mean score ratings were not significantly different across ages and gender among health care professionals and across age, income categories, and self and family dengue fever history but not gender (P<.001) among the school-based samples. Thematic syntheses revealed 7 major themes: multilanguage options and including other diseases; Android version availability; improvements on the app's content, design, and engagement; inclusion of users from low-income and rural areas; Wi-Fi connection and app size concerns; data credibility and issues regarding user security and privacy.ConclusionsWith its acceptable performance as perceived by health care professionals and school-based young adults, Mozzify has the potential to be used as a strategic health intervention system for early detection of disease outbreaks in the Philippines. It can be used by health care professionals of any age and gender and by school-based samples of any age, socioeconomic status, and dengue fever history. The study also highlights the feasibility of school-based young adults to use health-related apps for disease prevention.

Project description:BackgroundWaterborne outbreaks are still a risk in high-income countries, and their early detection is crucial to limit their societal consequences. Although syndromic surveillance is widely used for the purpose of detecting outbreaks days earlier than traditional surveillance systems, evidence of the effectiveness of such systems is lacking. Thus, our objective was to conduct a systematic review of the effectiveness of syndromic surveillance to detect waterborne outbreaks.MethodWe searched the Cochrane Library, Medline/PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, and Web of Science for relevant published articles using a combination of the keywords 'drinking water', 'surveillance', and 'waterborne disease' for the period of 1990 to 2018. The references lists of the identified articles for full-text record assessment were screened, and searches in Google Scholar using the same key words were conducted. We assessed the risk of bias in the included articles using the ROBINS-I tool and PRECEPT for the cumulative body of evidence.ResultsFrom the 1959 articles identified, we reviewed 52 articles, of which 18 met the eligibility criteria. Twelve were descriptive/analytical studies, whereas six were simulation studies. There is no clear evidence for syndromic surveillance in terms of the ability to detect waterborne outbreaks (low sensitivity and high specificity). However, one simulation study implied that multiple sources of signals combined with spatial information may increase the timeliness in detecting a waterborne outbreak and reduce false alarms.ConclusionThis review demonstrates that there is no conclusive evidence on the effectiveness of syndromic surveillance for the detection of waterborne outbreaks, thus suggesting the need to focus on primary prevention measures to reduce the risk of waterborne outbreaks. Future studies should investigate methods for combining health and environmental data with an assessment of needed financial and human resources for implementing such surveillance systems. In addition, a more critical thematic narrative synthesis on the most promising sources of data, and an assessment of the basis for arguments that joint analysis of different data or dimensions of data (e.g. spatial and temporal) might perform better, should be carried out.Trial registrationPROSPERO: International prospective register of systematic reviews. 2019. CRD42019122332 .

Dataset Information

An algorithm applied to national surveillance data for the early detection of major dengue outbreaks in Cambodia.

Publications

An algorithm applied to national surveillance data for the early detection of major dengue outbreaks in Cambodia.

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