Dataset Information

Quantifying spatio-temporal variation of invasion spread.

ABSTRACT: - The spread of invasive species can have far-reaching environmental and ecological consequences. Understanding invasion spread patterns and the underlying process driving invasions are key to predicting and managing invasions. - We combine a set of statistical methods in a novel way to characterize local spread properties and demonstrate their application using simulated and historical data on invasive insects. Our method uses a Gaussian process fit to the surface of waiting times to invasion in order to characterize the vector field of spread. - Using this method, we estimate with statistical uncertainties the speed and direction of spread at each location. Simulations from a stratified diffusion model verify the accuracy of our method. - We show how we may link local rates of spread to environmental covariates for two case studies: the spread of the gypsy moth ( Lymantria dispar), and hemlock woolly adelgid ( Adelges tsugae) in North America. We provide an R-package that automates the calculations for any spatially referenced waiting time data.

SUBMITTER: Goldstein J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6367189 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Quantifying spatio-temporal variation of invasion spread.

Goldstein Joshua J Park Jaewoo J Haran Murali M Liebhold Andrew A Bjørnstad Ottar N ON

Proceedings. Biological sciences 20190101 1894

- The spread of invasive species can have far-reaching environmental and ecological consequences. Understanding invasion spread patterns and the underlying process driving invasions are key to predicting and managing invasions. - We combine a set of statistical methods in a novel way to characterize local spread properties and demonstrate their application using simulated and historical data on invasive insects. Our method uses a Gaussian process fit to the surface of waiting times to invasion i ...[more]

PMID: 30963867

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Project description:BackgroundThe Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first detected in China at the end of 2019 and it has since spread in few months all over the World. Italy was one of the first Western countries who faced the health emergency and is one of the countries most severely affected by the pandemic. The diffusion of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy has followed a peculiar spatial pattern, however the attention of the scientific community has so far focussed almost exclusively on the prediction of the evolution of the disease over time.MethodsOfficial freely available data about the number of infected at the finest possible level of spatial areal aggregation (Italian provinces) are used to model the spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 infections at local level. An endemic-epidemic time-series mixed-effects generalized linear model for areal disease counts has been implemented to understand and predict spatio-temporal diffusion of the phenomenon.ResultsThree subcomponents characterize the fitted model. The first describes the transmission of the illness within provinces; the second accounts for the transmission between nearby provinces; the third is related to the evolution of the disease over time. At the local level, the provinces first concerned by containment measures are those that are not affected by the effects of spatial neighbours. On the other hand, the component accounting for the spatial interaction with surrounding areas is prevalent for provinces that are strongly involved by contagions. Moreover, the proposed model provides good forecasts for the number of infections at local level while controlling for delayed reporting.ConclusionsA strong evidence is found that strict control measures implemented in some provinces efficiently break contagions and limit the spread to nearby areas. While containment policies may potentially be more effective if planned considering the peculiarities of local territories, the effective and homogeneous enforcement of control measures at national level is needed to prevent the disease control being delayed or missed as a whole. This may also apply at international level where, as it is for the European Union or the United States, the internal border checks among states have largely been abolished.

Project description:Despite its high ecological importance, the commensal interactions at community level are poorly studied. In tropical dry forests (TDF) there is a great diversity of species adapted to the high seasonality that characterizes them; however, little is known regarding how the spatial and temporal availability of resources generates changes in the pattern of commensal interactions. We experimentally studied changes in the diversity, composition, and pattern of interactions in spatio-temporal associations between the saproxylophagous beetles and their host trees in a TDF in Morelos, Mexico. A total of 65 host tree species were selected, from which 16 wood sections were obtained per species. These sections were exposed in the field to allow oviposition by the cerambycids under four different (spatio-temporal) treatments. We analyzed the network structure and generated indices at species level (i.e., specialization, species strength, and effective partners) and those related to physical characteristics of the wood (hardness and degradation rate) and the cerambycids (body size). In total, 1,323 individuals of 57 species of cerambycids emerged. Our results showed that, independently of the space and time, the network presented a nested and modular structure, with a high specialization degree and a high turnover of cerambycid species and their interactions. In general, we found that the cerambycids are mostly associated with softwood species with a lower decomposition rate of wood, as well as with the most abundant host species. The commensalistic interactions between the cerambycids and their host trees are highly specialized but are not spatio-temporally static. The high turnover in the interactions is caused by the emergence patterns of cerambycids, which seem to restrict their use to certain species. The knowledge of the spatio-temporal variation in Cerambycidae-host tree interactions allows us to predict how environmental and structural changes in the habitat can modify the species ensemble, and therefore its interactions.

Dataset Information

Quantifying spatio-temporal variation of invasion spread.

Publications

Quantifying spatio-temporal variation of invasion spread.

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