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Earth system models underestimate carbon fixation by plants in the high latitudes.

ABSTRACT: Most Earth system models agree that land will continue to store carbon due to the physiological effects of rising CO₂ concentration and climatic changes favoring plant growth in temperature-limited regions. But they largely disagree on the amount of carbon uptake. The historical CO₂ increase has resulted in enhanced photosynthetic carbon fixation (Gross Primary Production, GPP), as can be evidenced from atmospheric CO₂ concentration and satellite leaf area index measurements. Here, we use leaf area sensitivity to ambient CO₂ from the past 36 years of satellite measurements to obtain an Emergent Constraint (EC) estimate of GPP enhancement in the northern high latitudes at two-times the pre-industrial CO₂ concentration (3.4?±?0.2?Pg?C?yr^-1). We derive three independent comparable estimates from CO₂ measurements and atmospheric inversions. Our EC estimate is 60% larger than the conventionally used multi-model average (44% higher at the global scale). This suggests that most models largely underestimate photosynthetic carbon fixation and therefore likely overestimate future atmospheric CO₂ abundance and ensuing climate change, though not proportionately.

SUBMITTER: Winkler AJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6385346 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Earth system models underestimate carbon fixation by plants in the high latitudes.

Winkler Alexander J AJ Myneni Ranga B RB Alexandrov Georgii A GA Brovkin Victor V

Nature communications 20190221 1

Most Earth system models agree that land will continue to store carbon due to the physiological effects of rising CO2 concentration and climatic changes favoring plant growth in temperature-limited regions. But they largely disagree on the amount of carbon uptake. The historical CO2 increase has resulted in enhanced photosynthetic carbon fixation (Gross Primary Production, GPP), as can be evidenced from atmospheric CO2 concentration and satellite leaf area index ...[more]

PMID: 30792385

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Project description:BACKGROUND: Earth system models describe the physical, chemical and biological processes that govern our global climate. While it is difficult to single out one component as being more important than another in these sophisticated models, terrestrial vegetation is a critical player in the biogeochemical and biophysical dynamics of the Earth system. There is much debate, however, as to how plant diversity and function should be represented in these models. SCOPE: Plant functional types (PFTs) have been adopted by modellers to represent broad groupings of plant species that share similar characteristics (e.g. growth form) and roles (e.g. photosynthetic pathway) in ecosystem function. In this review, the PFT concept is traced from its origin in the early 1800s to its current use in regional and global dynamic vegetation models (DVMs). Special attention is given to the representation and parameterization of PFTs and to validation and benchmarking of predicted patterns of vegetation distribution in high-latitude ecosystems. These ecosystems are sensitive to changing climate and thus provide a useful test case for model-based simulations of past, current and future distribution of vegetation. CONCLUSIONS: Models that incorporate the PFT concept predict many of the emerging patterns of vegetation change in tundra and boreal forests, given known processes of tree mortality, treeline migration and shrub expansion. However, representation of above- and especially below-ground traits for specific PFTs continues to be problematic. Potential solutions include developing trait databases and replacing fixed parameters for PFTs with formulations based on trait co-variance and empirical trait-environment relationships. Surprisingly, despite being important to land-atmosphere interactions of carbon, water and energy, PFTs such as moss and lichen are largely absent from DVMs. Close collaboration among those involved in modelling with the disciplines of taxonomy, biogeography, ecology and remote sensing will be required if we are to overcome these and other shortcomings.

Dataset Information

Earth system models underestimate carbon fixation by plants in the high latitudes.

Publications

Earth system models underestimate carbon fixation by plants in the high latitudes.

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