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Land carbon models underestimate the severity and duration of drought's impact on plant productivity.

ABSTRACT: The ability to accurately predict ecosystem drought response and recovery is necessary to produce reliable forecasts of land carbon uptake and future climate. Using a suite of models from the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we assessed modeled net primary productivity (NPP) response to, and recovery from, drought events against a benchmark derived from tree ring observations between 1948 and 2008 across forested regions of the US and Europe. We find short lag times (0-6 months) between climate anomalies and modeled NPP response. Although models accurately simulate the direction of drought legacy effects (i.e. NPP decreases), projected effects are approximately four times shorter and four times weaker than observations suggest. This discrepancy between observed and simulated vegetation recovery from drought reveals a potential critical model deficiency. Since productivity is a crucial component of the land carbon balance, models that underestimate drought recovery time could overestimate predictions of future land carbon sink strength and, consequently, underestimate forecasts of atmospheric CO₂.

SUBMITTER: Kolus HR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6391443 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Land carbon models underestimate the severity and duration of drought's impact on plant productivity.

Kolus Hannah R HR Huntzinger Deborah N DN Schwalm Christopher R CR Fisher Joshua B JB McKay Nicholas N Fang Yuanyuan Y Michalak Anna M AM Schaefer Kevin K Wei Yaxing Y Poulter Benjamin B Mao Jiafu J Parazoo Nicholas C NC Shi Xiaoying X

Scientific reports 20190226 1

The ability to accurately predict ecosystem drought response and recovery is necessary to produce reliable forecasts of land carbon uptake and future climate. Using a suite of models from the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), we assessed modeled net primary productivity (NPP) response to, and recovery from, drought events against a benchmark derived from tree ring observations between 1948 and 2008 across forested regions of the US and Europe. We find ...[more]

PMID: 30808971

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Project description:Groundnut production is limited in Sub-Saharan Africa and water deficit or "drought," is often considered as the main yield-limiting factor. However, no comprehensive study has assessed the extent and intensity of "drought"-related yield decreases, nor has it explored avenues to enhance productivity. Hence, crop simulation modeling with SSM (Simple Simulation Modeling) was used to address these issues. To palliate the lack of reliable weather data as input to the model, the validity of weather data generated by Marksim, a weather generator, was tested. Marksim provided good weather representation across a large gradient of rainfall, representative of the region, and although rainfall generated by Marksim was above observations, run-off from Marksim data was also higher, and consequently simulations using observed or Marksim weather agreed closely across this gradient of weather conditions (root mean square of error = 99 g m-2; R2 = 0.81 for pod yield). More importantly, simulation of yield changes upon agronomic or genetic alterations in the model were equally predicted with Marksim weather. A 1° × 1° grid of weather data was generated. "Drought"-related yield reduction were limited to latitudes above 12-13° North in West Central Africa (WCA) and to the Eastern fringes of Tanzania and Mozambique in East South Africa (ESA). Simulation and experimental trials also showed that doubling the sowing density of Spanish cultivars from 20 to 40 plants m-2 would increase yield dramatically in both WCA and ESA. However, increasing density would require growers to invest in more seeds and likely additional labor. If these trade-offs cannot be alleviated, genetic improvement would then need to re-focus on a plant type that is adapted to the current low sowing density, like a runner rather than a bush plant type, which currently receives most of the genetic attention. Genetic improvement targeting "drought" adaptation should also be restricted to areas where water is indeed an issue, i.e., above 12-13°N latitude in WCA and the Eastern fringes of Tanzania and Mozambique.

Dataset Information

Land carbon models underestimate the severity and duration of drought's impact on plant productivity.

Publications

Land carbon models underestimate the severity and duration of drought's impact on plant productivity.

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