Dataset Information

The association between heatwaves and risk of hospitalization in Brazil: A nationwide time series study between 2000 and 2015.

ABSTRACT:

Background

To our knowledge, no study has assessed the association between heatwaves and risk of hospitalization and how it may change over time in Brazil. We quantified the heatwave-hospitalization association in Brazil during 2000-2015.

Methods and findings

Daily data on hospitalization and temperature were collected from 1,814 cities (>78% of the national population) in the hottest five consecutive months during 2000-2015. Twelve types of heatwaves were defined with daily mean temperatures of ?90th, 92.5th, 95th, or 97.5th percentiles of year-round temperature and durations of ?2, 3, or 4 consecutive days. The city-specific association was estimated using a quasi-Poisson regression with constrained distributed lag model and then pooled at the national level using random-effect meta-analysis. Stratified analyses were performed by five regions, sex, 10 age groups, and nine cause categories. The temporal change in the heatwave-hospitalization association was assessed using a time-varying constrained distributed lag model. Of the 58,400,682 hospitalizations (59% women), 24%, 34%, 21%, and 19% of cases were aged <20, 20-39, 40-59, and ?60 years, respectively. The city-specific year-round daily mean temperatures were 23.5 ± 2.8 °C on average, varying from 26.8 ± 1.8 °C for the 90th percentile to 28.0 ± 1.6 °C for the 97.5th percentile. We observed that the risk of hospitalization was most pronounced for heatwaves characterized by high daily temperatures and long durations across Brazil, except for the minimal association in the north (the hottest region). After controlling for temperature, the association remained for severe heatwaves in the south and southeast (cold regions). Children 0-9 years, the elderly ?70 years, and admissions for perinatal conditions were most strongly associated with heatwaves. Over the study period, the strength of the heatwave-hospitalization association declined substantially in the south, while an apparent increase was observed in the southeast. The main limitations of this study included the lack of data on individual temperature exposure and measured air pollution.

Conclusions

There are geographic, demographic, cause-specific, and temporal variations in the heatwave-hospitalization associations across the Brazilian population. Considering the projected increase in frequency, duration, and intensity of heatwaves, future strategies should be developed, such as building early warning systems, to reduce the health risk associated with heatwaves in Brazil.

SUBMITTER: Zhao Q

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6386221 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

The association between heatwaves and risk of hospitalization in Brazil: A nationwide time series study between 2000 and 2015.

Zhao Qi Q Li Shanshan S Coelho Micheline S Z S MSZS Saldiva Paulo H N PHN Hu Kejia K Huxley Rachel R RR Abramson Michael J MJ Guo Yuming Y

PLoS medicine 20190222 2

<h4>Background</h4>To our knowledge, no study has assessed the association between heatwaves and risk of hospitalization and how it may change over time in Brazil. We quantified the heatwave-hospitalization association in Brazil during 2000-2015.<h4>Methods and findings</h4>Daily data on hospitalization and temperature were collected from 1,814 cities (>78% of the national population) in the hottest five consecutive months during 2000-2015. Twelve types of heatwaves were defined with daily mean ...[more]

PMID: 30794537

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Project description:BackgroundThe importance of bacterial infections following respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) remains unclear. We evaluated whether variations in RSV epidemic timing and magnitude are associated with variations in pneumococcal disease epidemics and whether changes in pneumococcal disease following the introduction of seven-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) were associated with changes in the rate of hospitalizations coded as RSV.Methods and findingsWe used data from the State Inpatient Databases (Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality), including >700,000 RSV hospitalizations and >16,000 pneumococcal pneumonia hospitalizations in 36 states (1992/1993-2008/2009). Harmonic regression was used to estimate the timing of the average seasonal peak of RSV, pneumococcal pneumonia, and pneumococcal septicemia. We then estimated the association between the incidence of pneumococcal disease in children and the activity of RSV and influenza (where there is a well-established association) using Poisson regression models that controlled for shared seasonal variations. Finally, we estimated changes in the rate of hospitalizations coded as RSV following the introduction of PCV7. RSV and pneumococcal pneumonia shared a distinctive spatiotemporal pattern (correlation of peak timing: ρ = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.45, 0.84). RSV was associated with a significant increase in the incidence of pneumococcal pneumonia in children aged <1 y (attributable percent [AP]: 20.3%, 95% CI: 17.4%, 25.1%) and among children aged 1-2 y (AP: 10.1%, 95% CI: 7.6%, 13.9%). Influenza was also associated with an increase in pneumococcal pneumonia among children aged 1-2 y (AP: 3.2%, 95% CI: 1.7%, 4.7%). Finally, we observed a significant decline in RSV-coded hospitalizations in children aged <1 y following PCV7 introduction (-18.0%, 95% CI: -22.6%, -13.1%, for 2004/2005-2008/2009 versus 1997/1998-1999/2000). This study used aggregated hospitalization data, and studies with individual-level, laboratory-confirmed data could help to confirm these findings.ConclusionsThese analyses provide evidence for an interaction between RSV and pneumococcal pneumonia. Future work should evaluate whether treatment for secondary bacterial infections could be considered for pneumonia cases even if a child tests positive for RSV. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Dataset Information

The association between heatwaves and risk of hospitalization in Brazil: A nationwide time series study between 2000 and 2015.

Background

Methods and findings

Conclusions

Publications

The association between heatwaves and risk of hospitalization in Brazil: A nationwide time series study between 2000 and 2015.

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