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Methods for calculating credible intervals for ratios of beta distributions with application to relative risks of death during the second plague pandemic.

ABSTRACT: Employing historical records we are able to estimate the risk of premature death during the second plague pandemic, and identify the Black Death and pestis secunda epidemics. We show a novel method of calculating Bayesian credible intervals for a ratio of beta distributed random variables and use this to quantify uncertainty of relative risk estimates for these two epidemics which we consider in a 2 × 2 contingency table framework.

SUBMITTER: Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6386284 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Methods for calculating credible intervals for ratios of beta distributions with application to relative risks of death during the second plague pandemic.

Bekker-Nielsen Dunbar Maria M Finnie Thomas J R TJR Sloane Barney B Hall Ian M IM

PloS one 20190222 2

Employing historical records we are able to estimate the risk of premature death during the second plague pandemic, and identify the Black Death and pestis secunda epidemics. We show a novel method of calculating Bayesian credible intervals for a ratio of beta distributed random variables and use this to quantify uncertainty of relative risk estimates for these two epidemics which we consider in a 2 × 2 contingency table framework. ...[more]

PMID: 30794569

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