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Modelling of oscillatory cortisol response in horses using a Bayesian population approach for evaluation of dexamethasone suppression test protocols.

ABSTRACT: Cortisol is a steroid hormone relevant to immune function in horses and other species and shows a circadian rhythm. The glucocorticoid dexamethasone suppresses cortisol in horses. Pituitary pars intermedia dysfunction (PPID) is a disease in which the cortisol suppression mechanism through dexamethasone is challenged. Overnight dexamethasone suppression test (DST) protocols are used to test the functioning of this mechanism and to establish a diagnosis for PPID. However, existing DST protocols have been recognized to perform poorly in previous experimental studies, often indicating presence of PPID in healthy horses. This study uses a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modelling approach to analyse the oscillatory cortisol response and its interaction with dexamethasone. Two existing DST protocols were then scrutinized using model simulations with particular focus on their ability to avoid false positive outcomes. Using a Bayesian population approach allowed for quantification of uncertainty and enabled predictions for a broader population of horses than the underlying sample. Dose selection and sampling time point were both determined to have large influence on the number of false positives. Advice on pitfalls in test protocols and directions for possible improvement of DST protocols were given. The presented methodology is also easily extended to other clinical test protocols.

SUBMITTER: Held F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6394511 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modelling of oscillatory cortisol response in horses using a Bayesian population approach for evaluation of dexamethasone suppression test protocols.

Held Felix F Ekstrand Carl C Cvijovic Marija M Gabrielsson Johan J Jirstrand Mats M

Journal of pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics 20190123 1

Cortisol is a steroid hormone relevant to immune function in horses and other species and shows a circadian rhythm. The glucocorticoid dexamethasone suppresses cortisol in horses. Pituitary pars intermedia dysfunction (PPID) is a disease in which the cortisol suppression mechanism through dexamethasone is challenged. Overnight dexamethasone suppression test (DST) protocols are used to test the functioning of this mechanism and to establish a diagnosis for PPID. However, existing DST protocols ha ...[more]

PMID: 30673914

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Project description:IntroductionSeveral studies demonstrated that the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis is dysregulated in suicide attempters. Prospective studies found that people with an abnormal response at the dexamethasone suppression test (DST) are more likely to commit suicide. However, whether DST may predict suicide attempts remains less clear. A possible strategy to address this question is to consider the suicide attempt lethality.Objectives(1) To compare the pre- and post-DST cortisol levels in serious/violent suicide attempters and in non-serious/non-violent suicide attempters, and (2) to investigate whether cortisol level can predict new suicide attempts or their lethality.MethodsThe study included 70 recent suicide attempters (25 with a serious or violent attempt) who were followed for two years. Three saliva samples for cortisol measurement were obtained at 8a.m., 3p.m., and 9p.m. before the DST (pre-DST). Then, at 11 p.m., 1 mg of dexamethasone was given orally. The following day (post-DST), three saliva samples were collected at the same hours as before. The post-DST-pre-DST salivary cortisol Δ index was calculated for each collection time. The Risk-Rescue Ratio Scale (RRRS) and the Suicidal Intent Scale (SIS) were used to characterize the suicide attempt at inclusion and those occurring during the follow-up.ResultsPost-DST cortisol level at 9 p.m. was higher in patients with an initial violent or serious suicide attempt than in non-violent/non-serious attempters (p < .010). Higher post-DST cortisol at 9p.m. was associated with lower RRRS rescue score and higher clinical impression of suicide severity at inclusion. Among the 66 patients who completed the follow-up, 26 attempted suicide again at least once. Higher pre-DST cortisol at 8a.m. predicted new suicide attempts during the follow-up (OR = 2.15 [1.11, 4.15]), and higher cortisol Δ index at 9p.m. was associated with higher suicide intent during the follow-up.ConclusionsOur results suggest that HPA axis hyper-reactivity monitored with the DST is a marker of violent/serious suicide attempt with lower rescue possibility. Furthermore, higher changes between pre-DST and post-DST cortisol levels may predict higher suicide intent. These findings might help to characterize the biological features of nearest suicide phenotypes.

Project description:BackgroundThe burden of child under-nutrition still remains a global challenge, with greater severity being faced by low- and middle-income countries, despite the strategies in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Globally, malnutrition is the one of the most important risk factors associated with illness and death, affecting hundreds of millions of pregnant women and young children. Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the regions in the world struggling with the burden of chronic malnutrition. The 2018 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey (ZDHS) report estimated that 35% of the children under five years of age are stunted. The objective of this study was to analyse the distribution, and associated factors of stunting in Zambia.MethodsWe analysed the relationships between socio-economic, and remote sensed characteristics and anthropometric outcomes in under five children, using Bayesian distributional regression. Georeferenced data was available for 25,852 children from two waves of the ZDHS, 31% observation were from the 2007 and 69% were from the 2013/14. We assessed the linear, non-linear and spatial effects of covariates on the height-for-age z-score.ResultsStunting decreased between 2007 and 2013/14 from a mean z-score of 1.59 (credible interval (CI): -1.63; -1.55) to -1.47 (CI: -1.49; -1.44). We found a strong non-linear relationship for the education of the mother and the wealth of the household on the height-for-age z-score. Moreover, increasing levels of maternal education above the eighth grade were associated with a reduced variation of stunting. Our study finds that remote sensed covariates alone explain little of the variation of the height-for-age z-score, which highlights the importance to collect socio-economic characteristics, and to control for socio-economic characteristics of the individual and the household.ConclusionsWhile stunting still remains unacceptably high in Zambia with remarkable regional inequalities, the decline is lagging behind goal two of the SDGs. This emphasises the need for policies that help to reduce the share of chronic malnourished children within Zambia.

Dataset Information

Modelling of oscillatory cortisol response in horses using a Bayesian population approach for evaluation of dexamethasone suppression test protocols.

Publications

Modelling of oscillatory cortisol response in horses using a Bayesian population approach for evaluation of dexamethasone suppression test protocols.

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