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Inverse-square law between time and amplitude for crossing tipping thresholds.

ABSTRACT: A classical scenario for tipping is that a dynamical system experiences a slow parameter drift across a fold tipping point, caused by a run-away positive feedback loop. We study what happens if one turns around after one has crossed the threshold. We derive a simple criterion that relates how far the parameter exceeds the tipping threshold maximally and how long the parameter stays above the threshold to avoid tipping in an inverse-square law to observable properties of the dynamical system near the fold. For the case when the dynamical system is subject to stochastic forcing we give an approximation to the probability of tipping if a parameter changing in time reverses near the tipping point. The derived approximations are valid if the parameter change in time is sufficiently slow. We demonstrate for a higher-dimensional system, a model for the Indian summer monsoon, how numerically observed escape from the equilibrium converge to our asymptotic expressions. The inverse-square law between peak of the parameter forcing and the time the parameter spends above a given threshold is also visible in the level curves of equal probability when the system is subject to random disturbances.

SUBMITTER: Ritchie P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6405451 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Inverse-square law between time and amplitude for crossing tipping thresholds.

Ritchie Paul P Karabacak Özkan Ö Sieber Jan J

Proceedings. Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences 20190227 2222

A classical scenario for tipping is that a dynamical system experiences a slow parameter drift across a fold tipping point, caused by a run-away positive feedback loop. We study what happens if one turns around after one has crossed the threshold. We derive a simple criterion that relates how far the parameter exceeds the tipping threshold maximally and how long the parameter stays above the threshold to avoid tipping in an inverse-square law to observable properties of the dynamical system near ...[more]

PMID: 30853839

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Project description:A common two-tier structure for social networks is based on partitioning society into two parts, referred to as the elite and the periphery, where the "elite" is the relatively small but well-connected and highly influential group of powerful individuals around which the society is centered, and the "periphery" consists of the rest of society. It is observed that the relative sizes of economic and social elites in various societies appear to be continually declining. One possible explanation is that this is a natural social phenomenon, resembling Price's "square root" law for the fraction of good scientists in the scientific community. We try to assess the validity of this explanation by studying the elite-periphery structure via introducing a novel axiom-based model for representing and measuring the influence between the elite and the periphery. The model is accompanied by a set of axioms that capture the elite's dominance, robustness and density, as well as a compactness property. Relying on the model and the accompanying axioms, we are able to draw a number of insightful conclusions about the elite-periphery structure. In particular, we show that in social networks that respect our axioms, the size of a compact elite is sublinear in the network size. This agrees with Price's principle but appears to contradict the common belief that the elite size tends to a linear fraction of society (recently claimed to be around 1%). We propose a natural method to create partitions with nice properties, based on the key observation that an elite-periphery partition is at what we call a 'balance point', where the elite and the periphery maintain a balance of powers. Our method is based on setting the elite to be the k most influential nodes in the network and suggest the balance point as a tool for choosing k and therefore the size of the elite. When using nodes degrees to order the nodes, the resulting k-rich club at the balance point is the elite of a partition we refer to as the balanced edge-based partition. We accompany these findings with an empirical study on 32 real-world social networks, which provides evidence that balanced edge-based partitions which satisfying our axioms commonly exist.

Dataset Information

Inverse-square law between time and amplitude for crossing tipping thresholds.

Publications

Inverse-square law between time and amplitude for crossing tipping thresholds.

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