Dataset Information

Heart failure in Southeast Asia: facts and numbers.

ABSTRACT: Southeast Asia is home to a growing population of >600 million people, the majority younger than 65 years, but among whom, rapid epidemiological transition has led to high rates of premature death from non-communicable diseases (chiefly cardiovascular disease) (up to 28% in the Philippines vs. 12% in UK). There is a strikingly high prevalence of stage A heart failure (HF) risk factors in Southeast Asia, particularly hypertension (>24% in Cambodia and Laos vs. 13-15% in UK and USA), tobacco smoking (>36% in Indonesia), physical inactivity (>50% in Malaysia) and raised blood glucose (10-11% in Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand) in spite of a low prevalence of overweight/obesity (21-26% in Southeast Asia vs. 67-70% in UK and USA). Accordingly, the prevalence of symptomatic HF appears to be higher in Southeast Asian countries compared with the rest of the world. Epidemiologic trends in Singapore showed a sharp 38% increase in age-adjusted HF hospitalizations (from 85.4 per 10?000 in 1991 to 110.3 per 10?000 in 1998) with notable ethnic differences (hospitalization rates ~35% higher in Malays and Indians vs. Chinese; mortality 3.5 times higher in Malays vs. Indians and Chinese). Furthermore, Southeast Asian patients present with acute HF at a younger age (54 years) compared with USA patients (75 years) but have more severe clinical features, higher rates of mechanical ventilation, longer lengths of stay (6 vs. 4.2 days) and higher in-hospital mortality (4.8 vs. 3.0%). Finally, there is under-usage of guideline-recommended HF medical therapies (prescribed in 31-63% of patients upon discharge) and device therapies in Southeast Asia. Large gaps in knowledge that need to be addressed in Southeast Asia include the prevalence of HF with preserved ejection fraction, clinical outcomes, barriers to recommended therapies and their cost-effectiveness, as well as possible ethnicity-specific pathophysiologic mechanisms.

SUBMITTER: Lam CSP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6410537 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Heart failure in Southeast Asia: facts and numbers.

Lam Carolyn S P CSP

ESC heart failure 20150601 2

Southeast Asia is home to a growing population of >600 million people, the majority younger than 65 years, but among whom, rapid epidemiological transition has led to high rates of premature death from non-communicable diseases (chiefly cardiovascular disease) (up to 28% in the Philippines vs. 12% in UK). There is a strikingly high prevalence of stage A heart failure (HF) risk factors in Southeast Asia, particularly hypertension (>24% in Cambodia and Laos vs. 13-15% in UK and USA), tobacco smoki ...[more]

PMID: 28834655

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at high risk of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). The Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE), which predicts ESKD risk among patients with CKD, has not been validated in primary care clinics in Southeast Asia (SEA). Therefore, we aimed to (1) evaluate the performance of existing KFRE equations, (2) recalibrate KFRE for better predictive precision, and (3) identify optimally feasible KFRE thresholds for nephrologist referral and dialysis planning in SEA. METHODS:All patients with CKD visiting nine primary care clinics from 2010 to 2013 in Singapore were included and applied 4-variable KFRE equations incorporating age, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR). ESKD onset within two and five years were acquired via linkage to the Singapore Renal Registry. A weighted Brier score (the squared difference between observed vs predicted ESKD risks), bias (the median difference between observed vs predicted ESKD risks) and precision (the interquartile range of the bias) were used to select the best-calibrated KFRE equation. RESULTS:The recalibrated KFRE (named Recalibrated Pooled KFRE SEA) performed better than existing and other recalibrated KFRE equations in terms of having a smaller Brier score (square root: 2.8% vs. 4.0-9.3% at 5 years; 2.0% vs. 6.1-9.1% at 2 years), less bias (2.5% vs. 3.3-5.2% at 5 years; 1.8% vs. 3.2-3.6% at 2 years), and improved precision (0.5% vs. 1.7-5.2% at 5 years; 0.5% vs. 3.8-4.2% at 2 years). Area under ROC curve for the Recalibrated Pooled KFRE SEA equations were 0.94 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.93 to 0.95) at 5 years and 0.96 (95% CI: 0.95 to 0.97) at 2 years. The optimally feasible KFRE thresholds were > 10-16% for 5-year nephrologist referral and > 45% for 2-year dialysis planning. Using the Recalibrated Pooled KFRE SEA, an estimated 82 and 89% ESKD events were included among 10% of subjects at highest estimated risk of ESKD at 5-year and 2-year, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:The Recalibrated Pooled KFRE SEA performs better than existing KFREs and warrants implementation in primary care settings in SEA.

Dataset Information

Heart failure in Southeast Asia: facts and numbers.

Publications

Heart failure in Southeast Asia: facts and numbers.

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