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Additional value of a combined genetic risk score to standard cardiovascular stratification.

ABSTRACT: The utility of genetic risk scores (GRS) as independent risk predictors remains inconclusive. Here, we evaluate the additive value of a multi-locus GRS to the Framingham risk score (FRS) in coronary artery disease (CAD) risk prediction. A total of 2888 individuals (1566 coronary patients and 1322 controls) were divided into three subgroups according to FRS. Multiplicative GRS was determined for 32 genetic variants associated to CAD. Logistic Regression and Area Under the Curve (AUC) were determined first, using the TRF for each FRS subgroup, and secondly, adding GRS. Different models (TRF, TRF+GRS) were used to classify the subjects into risk categories for the FRS 10-year predicted risk. The improvement offered by GRS was expressed as Net Reclassification Index and Integrated Discrimination Improvement. Multivariate analysis showed that GRS was an independent predictor for CAD (OR = 1.87; p<0.0001). Diabetes, arterial hypertension, dyslipidemia and smoking status were also independent CAD predictors (p<0.05). GRS added predictive value to TRF across all risk subgroups. NRI showed a significant improvement in all categories. In conclusion, GRS provided a better incremental value in intermediate subgroup. In this subgroup, inclusion of genotyping may be considered to better stratify cardiovascular risk.

SUBMITTER: Pereira A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6415604 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Oct-Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Additional value of a combined genetic risk score to standard cardiovascular stratification.

Pereira Andreia A Mendonca Maria Isabel MI Borges Sofia S Sousa Ana Célia AC Freitas Sónia S Henriques Eva E Rodrigues Mariana M Freitas Ana Isabel AI Guerra Graça G Freitas Carolina C Pereira Décio D Brehm António A Reis Roberto Palma Dos RPD

Genetics and molecular biology 20181001 4

The utility of genetic risk scores (GRS) as independent risk predictors remains inconclusive. Here, we evaluate the additive value of a multi-locus GRS to the Framingham risk score (FRS) in coronary artery disease (CAD) risk prediction. A total of 2888 individuals (1566 coronary patients and 1322 controls) were divided into three subgroups according to FRS. Multiplicative GRS was determined for 32 genetic variants associated to CAD. Logistic Regression and Area Under the Curve (AUC) were determi ...[more]

PMID: 30571812

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Project description:ImportanceAdults late after total correction of tetralogy of Fallot (TOF) are at risk for major complications. Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging is recommended to quantify right ventricular (RV) and left ventricular (LV) function. However, a commonly used risk model by Khairy et al requires invasive investigations and lacks CMR imaging to identify high-risk patients.ObjectiveTo implement CMR imaging in noninvasive risk stratification to predict major adverse clinical outcomes.Design, setting, and participantsThis multicenter study included 575 adult patients with TOF (4.083 patient-years at risk) from a prospective nationwide registry in whom CMR was performed. This study involved 5 tertiary referral centers with a specialized adult congenital heart disease unit. Multivariable Cox hazards regression analysis was performed to determine factors associated with the primary end point. The CMR variables were combined with the noninvasive components of the Khairy et al risk model, and the C statistic of the final noninvasive risk model was determined using bootstrap sampling. The data analysis was conducted from January to December 2016.Main outcomes and measuresThe composite primary outcome was defined as all-cause mortality or ventricular arrhythmia, defined as aborted cardiac arrest or documented ventricular fibrillation and ventricular tachycardia (lasting ≥30 seconds or recurrent symptomatic).ResultsOf the 575 patients with TOF, 57% were male, and the mean (SD) age was 31 (11) years. During a mean (SD) follow-up of 7.1 (3.5) years, the primary composite end point occurred in 35 patients, including all-cause mortality in 13 patients. Mean (SD) RV ejection fraction (EF) was 44% (10%), and mean (SD) LV EF was 53% (8%). There was a correlation between RV EF and LV EF (R, 0.36; 95% CI, 0.29-0.44; P < .001). Optimal thresholds for ventricular function (RV EF <30%: hazard ratio, 3.90; 95% CI, 1.84-8.26; P < .001 and LV EF <45%: hazard ratio, 3.23; 95% CI, 1.57-6.65; P = .001) were independently predictive in multivariable analysis. Both thresholds were included in a point-based noninvasive risk model (C statistic, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.63-0.85) and combined with the noninvasive components of the Khairy et al risk model.Conclusions and relevanceIn patients with repaired TOF, biventricular dysfunction on CMR imaging was associated with major adverse clinical outcomes. The quantified thresholds (RV EF <30% and LV EF <45%) may be implemented in noninvasive risk stratification.

Project description:BackgroundLong-term childhood cancer survivors (CCS) are at increased risk of adverse cardiovascular events; however, there is a paucity of risk-stratification tools to identify those at higher-than-normal risk.Subjects, materials, and methodsThis was a population-based study using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (1973-2013). Long-term CCS (age at diagnosis ≤19 years, survival ≥5 years) were followed up over a median time period of 12.3 (5-40.9) years. Independent predictors of cardiovascular mortality (CVM) were combined into a risk score, which was developed in a derivation set (n = 22,374), and validated in separate patient registries (n = 6,437).ResultsIn the derivation registries, older age at diagnosis (≥10 years vs. reference group of 1-5 years), male sex, non-white race, a history of lymphoma, and a history of radiation were independently associated with an increased risk of CVM among long-term CCS (p < .05). A risk score derived from this model (Childhood and Adolescence Cancer Survivor CardioVascular score [CHACS-CV], range: 0-8) showed good discrimination for CVM (Harrell's C-index [95% confidence interval (CI)]: 0.73 [0.68-0.78], p < .001) and identified a high-risk group (CHACS-CV ≥6), with cumulative CVM incidence over 30 years of 6.0% (95% CI: 4.3%-8.1%) versus 2.6% (95% CI: 1.8%-3.7%), and 0.7% (95% CI: 0.5%-1.0%) in the mid- (CHACS-CV = 4-5) and low-risk groups (CHACS-CV ≤3), respectively (plog-rank < .001). In the validation set, the respective cumulative incidence rates were 4.7%, 3.1%, and 0.8% (plog-rank < .001).ConclusionWe propose a simple risk score that can be applied in everyday clinical practice to identify long-term CCS at increased cardiovascular risk, who may benefit from early cardiovascular screening, and risk-reduction strategies.Implications for practiceChildhood cancer survivors (CCS) are known to be at increased cardiovascular risk. Currently available prognostic tools focus on treatment-related adverse events and late development of congestive heart failure, but there is no prognostic model to date to estimate the risk of cardiovascular mortality among long-term CCS. A simple clinical tool is proposed for cardiovascular risk stratification of long-term CCS based on easily obtainable information from their medical history. This scoring system may be used as a first-line screening tool to assist health care providers in identifying those who may benefit from closer follow-up and enable timely deployment of preventive strategies.

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Additional value of a combined genetic risk score to standard cardiovascular stratification.

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Additional value of a combined genetic risk score to standard cardiovascular stratification.

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