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Development and validation of a novel predictive score for sepsis risk among trauma patients.

ABSTRACT: Background:Patients suffering from major trauma often experience complications such as sepsis. The early recognition of patients at high risk of sepsis after trauma is critical for precision therapy. We aimed to derive and validate a novel predictive score for sepsis risk using electronic medical record (EMR) data following trauma. Materials and methods:Clinical and laboratory variables of 684 trauma patients within 24?h after admission were collected, including 411 patients in the training cohort and 273 in the validation cohort. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) technique was adopted to identify variables contributing to the early prediction of traumatic sepsis. Then, we constructed a traumatic sepsis score (TSS) using a logistic regression model based on the variables selected in the LASSO analysis. Moreover, we evaluated the discrimination and calibration of the TSS using the area under the curve (AUC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) goodness-of-fit test. Results:Based on the LASSO, seven variables (injury severity score, Glasgow Coma Scale, temperature, heart rate, albumin, international normalized ratio, and C-reaction protein) were selected for construction of the TSS. Our results indicated that the incidence of sepsis after trauma increased with an increasing TSS (P trend?=?7.44?×?10-21 for the training cohort and P trend?=?1.16?×?10-13 for the validation cohort). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of TSS were 0.799 (0.757-0.837) and 0.790 (0.736-0.836) for the training and validation datasets, respectively. The discriminatory power of our model was superior to that of a single variable and the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score (P??0.05). Conclusions:We developed and validated a novel TSS with good discriminatory power and calibration for the prediction of sepsis risk in trauma patients based on the EMR data.

SUBMITTER: Lu HX

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6419404 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development and validation of a novel predictive score for sepsis risk among trauma patients.

Lu Hong-Xiang HX Du Juan J Wen Da-Lin DL Sun Jian-Hui JH Chen Min-Jia MJ Zhang An-Qiang AQ Jiang Jian-Xin JX

World journal of emergency surgery : WJES 20190312

<h4>Background</h4>Patients suffering from major trauma often experience complications such as sepsis. The early recognition of patients at high risk of sepsis after trauma is critical for precision therapy. We aimed to derive and validate a novel predictive score for sepsis risk using electronic medical record (EMR) data following trauma.<h4>Materials and methods</h4>Clinical and laboratory variables of 684 trauma patients within 24 h after admission were collected, including 411 patients in th ...[more]

PMID: 30918528

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Project description:Despite the best efforts of intensive care units (ICUs) professionals, the extubation failure rates in mechanically ventilated patients remain in the range of 5%-30%. Extubation failure is associated with increased risk of death and longer ICU stay. This study aimed to identify respiratory and non-respiratory parameters predictive of extubation outcome, and to use these predictors to develop and validate an "Extubation Predictive Score (ExPreS)" that could be used to predict likelihood of extubation success in patients receiving invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). Derivation cohort was composed by patients aged ≥18 years admitted to the ICU and receiving IMV through an endotracheal tube for >24 hours. The weaning process followed the established ICU protocol. Clinical signs and ventilator parameters of patients were recorded during IMV, in the end phase of weaning in pressure support ventilation (PSV) mode, with inspiratory pressure of 7 cm H2O over the PEEP (positive end expiratory pressure). Patients who tolerated this ventilation were submitted to spontaneous breathing trial (SBT) with T-tube for 30 minutes. Those who passed the SBT and a subsequent cuff-leak test were extubated. The primary outcome of this study was extubation success at 48 hours. Parameters that showed statistically significant association with extubation outcome were further investigated using the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis to assess their predictive value. The area under the curve (AUC) values were used to select parameters for inclusion in the ExPreS. Univariable logistic regression analysis and ROC analysis were performed to evaluate the performance of ExPreS. Patients' inclusion and statistical analyses for the prospective validation cohort followed the same criteria used for the derivation cohort and the decision to extubate was based on the ExPreS result. In the derivation cohort, a total of 110 patients were extubated: extubation succeeded in 101 (91.8%) patients and failed in 9 (8.2%) patients. Rapid shallow-breathing index (RSBI) in SBT, dynamic lung compliance, duration of IMV, muscle strength, estimated GCS, hematocrit, and serum creatinine were significantly associated with extubation outcome. These parameters, along with another parameter-presence of neurologic comorbidity-were used to create the ExPreS. The AUC value for the ExPreS was 0.875, which was higher than the AUCs of the individual parameters. The total ExPreS can range from 0 to 100. ExPreS ≥59 points indicated high probability of success (OR = 23.07), while ExPreS ≤44 points indicated low probability of success (OR = 0.82). In the prospective validation cohort, 83 patients were extubated: extubation succeeded in 81 (97.6%) patients and failed in 2 (2.4%) patients. The AUC value for the ExPreS in this cohort was 0.971. The multiparameter score that we propose, ExPreS, shows good accuracy to predict extubation outcome in patients receiving IMV in the ICU. In the prospective validation, the use of ExPreS decreased the extubation failure rate from 8.2% to 2.4%, even in a cohort of more severe patients.

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Development and validation of a novel predictive score for sepsis risk among trauma patients.

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Development and validation of a novel predictive score for sepsis risk among trauma patients.

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