Dataset Information

Estimating cholera incidence with cross-sectional serology.

ABSTRACT: The development of new approaches to cholera control relies on an accurate understanding of cholera epidemiology. However, most information on cholera incidence lacks laboratory confirmation and instead relies on surveillance systems reporting medically attended acute watery diarrhea. If recent infections could be identified using serological markers, cross-sectional serosurveys would offer an alternative approach to measuring incidence. Here, we used 1569 serologic samples from a cohort of cholera cases and their uninfected contacts in Bangladesh to train machine learning models to identify recent Vibrio cholerae O1 infections. We found that an individual's antibody profile contains information on the timing of V. cholerae O1 infections in the previous year. Our models using six serological markers accurately identified individuals in the Bangladesh cohort infected within the last year [cross-validated area under the curve (AUC), 93.4%; 95% confidence interval (CI), 92.1 to 94.7%], with a marginal performance decrease using models based on two markers (cross-validated AUC, 91.0%; 95% CI, 89.2 to 92.7%). We validated the performance of the two-marker model on data from a cohort of North American volunteers challenged with V. cholerae O1 (AUC range, 88.4 to 98.4%). In simulated serosurveys, our models accurately estimated annual incidence in both endemic and epidemic settings, even with sample sizes as small as 500 and annual incidence as low as two infections per 1000 individuals. Cross-sectional serosurveys may be a viable approach to estimating cholera incidence.

SUBMITTER: Azman AS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6430585 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimating cholera incidence with cross-sectional serology.

Azman Andrew S AS Lessler Justin J Luquero Francisco J FJ Bhuiyan Taufiqur Rahman TR Khan Ashraful Islam AI Chowdhury Fahima F Kabir Alamgir A Gurwith Marc M Weil Ana A AA Harris Jason B JB Calderwood Stephen B SB Ryan Edward T ET Qadri Firdausi F Leung Daniel T DT

Science translational medicine 20190201 480

The development of new approaches to cholera control relies on an accurate understanding of cholera epidemiology. However, most information on cholera incidence lacks laboratory confirmation and instead relies on surveillance systems reporting medically attended acute watery diarrhea. If recent infections could be identified using serological markers, cross-sectional serosurveys would offer an alternative approach to measuring incidence. Here, we used 1569 serologic samples from a cohort of chol ...[more]

PMID: 30787170

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Project description:ObjectiveTo estimate age-specific abortion incidence and unintended pregnancy in Zimbabwe, and to examine differences among adolescents by marital status and residence.DesignWe used a variant of the Abortion Incidence Complications Methodology, an indirect estimation approach, to estimate age-specific abortion incidence. We used three surveys: the Health Facility Survey, a census of 227 facilities that provide postabortion care (PAC); the Health Professional Survey, a purposive sample of key informants knowledgeable about abortion (n=118) and the Prospective Morbidity Survey of PAC patients (n=1002).SettingPAC-providing health facilities in Zimbabwe.ParticipantsHealthcare providers in PAC-providing facilities and women presenting to facilities with postabortion complications.Primary and secondary outcome measuresThe primary outcome measure was abortion incidence (in rates and ratios). The secondary outcome measure was the proportion of unintended pregnancies that end in abortion.ResultsAdolescent women aged 15-19 years had the lowest abortion rate at five abortions per 1000 women aged 15-19 years compared with other age groups. Adolescents living in urban areas had a higher abortion ratio compared with adolescents in rural areas, and unmarried adolescent women had a higher abortion ratio compared with married adolescents. Unintended pregnancy levels were similar across age groups, and adolescent women had the lowest proportion of unintended pregnancies that ended in induced abortion (9%) compared with other age groups.ConclusionsThis paper provides the first estimates of age-specific abortion and unintended pregnancy in Zimbabwe. Despite similar levels of unintended pregnancy across age groups, these findings suggest that adolescent women have abortions at lower rates and carry a higher proportion of unintended pregnancies to term than older women. Adolescent women are also not a homogeneous group, and youth-focused reproductive health programmes should consider the differences in experiences and barriers to care among young people that affect their ability to decide whether and when to parent.

Dataset Information

Estimating cholera incidence with cross-sectional serology.

Publications

Estimating cholera incidence with cross-sectional serology.

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