Dataset Information

Development and validation of a novel clinical scoring system for short-term prediction of death in dogs with acute pancreatitis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is associated with a high death rate in dogs, but accurate predictors of early death are still lacking.

Objectives

To develop a scoring system for prediction of short-term case fatality in dogs with AP.

Animals

One hundred sixty-nine dogs with AP including 138 dogs in the training cohort and 31 dogs in the validation cohort.

Methods

Multicenter, retrospective cohort study. Survival analysis was used to assess the associations with short-term death (within 30 days after admission). Independent predictors of death were identified by a stepwise selection method and used for the score calculation.

Results

Death rate within 30 days after admission was 33% in the training cohort. Four independent risk factors for short-term death were identified in the training cohort: presence of systemic inflammatory response syndrome, coagulation disorders, increased creatinine and ionized hypocalcemia. Canine Acute Pancreatitis Severity (CAPS) score was developed to predict short-term death, integrating these 4 factors in a weighted way. A simplified version of CAPS score (sCAPS) including respiratory rate instead of SIRS was also assessed. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of CAPS and sCAPS scores was 0.92 in the training cohort with an optimal cutoff of 11 (sensitivity, 89%; specificity, 90%) and 6 (sensitivity, 96%; specificity, 77%), respectively. CAPS and sCAPS score were validated in the validation cohort with respective AUC of 0.91 and 0.96.

Conclusions and clinical importance

We propose 2 scoring systems that allow early and accurate prediction of short-term death in dogs with AP.

SUBMITTER: Fabres V

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6430934 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Severity of AP is an important indicator of death rate, playing a crucial role in defining a correct dealing with a patient at his/her initial admission, in deciding on the need to transfer a patient to the intensive care unit. Many studies point out a direct relation between the death rate and the number of affected organs. In light of this, looking for the new criteria of multiple organ failure is still useful in clinical practice. Typically, assessment of multiple organ failure with patients undergoing treatment in the intensive care unit is carried out with the use of various integrated scores based both on clinical laboratory assessment of patient's condition and on data obtained by advanced imaging methods. However, many scientists point out that the facilities of diagnostic radiology, including in particularly computerised tomography, are not used to the full extent. AIM:We developed a CT score for assessment of pancreatitis severity that takes into consideration not only alterations of the pancreas but also enables evaluation of multiple organ failure with the examined patients. METHODS:We have examined 100 patients with suspected pancreatitis. Among them 30 patients had pancreatitis without alterations of the vital organs; 70 patients had alterations of the vital organs, suffered organ or multiple organ failure and received treatment in the surgery unit and intensive care unit of the Department of Surgical Conditions of Karaganda Medical University. RESULTS:Because of CT results, based on the proposed score, we assessed a degree of pancreas necrosis, analysed the relation between organ failure and degree of pancreas necrosis. Finally, we evaluated the connection between multiple organ failure and the specific failure of one organ and the presence of necrosis and death rate. CONCLUSION:The proposed score for CT-based assessment of pancreatitis severity can be used not only for identification but also for prediction of organ failure at the early stage of pancreatitis to a high accuracy as compared to conventional CT systems for assessment of the condition of patients affected by pancreatitis. It can also be used to differentiate the severity of organ failure and the number of affected organs.