Development and validation of a novel clinical scoring system for short-term prediction of death in dogs with acute pancreatitis.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT: Background
Acute pancreatitis (AP) is associated with a high death rate in dogs, but accurate predictors of early death are still lacking.Objectives
To develop a scoring system for prediction of short-term case fatality in dogs with AP.Animals
One hundred sixty-nine dogs with AP including 138 dogs in the training cohort and 31 dogs in the validation cohort.Methods
Multicenter, retrospective cohort study. Survival analysis was used to assess the associations with short-term death (within 30 days after admission). Independent predictors of death were identified by a stepwise selection method and used for the score calculation.Results
Death rate within 30 days after admission was 33% in the training cohort. Four independent risk factors for short-term death were identified in the training cohort: presence of systemic inflammatory response syndrome, coagulation disorders, increased creatinine and ionized hypocalcemia. Canine Acute Pancreatitis Severity (CAPS) score was developed to predict short-term death, integrating these 4 factors in a weighted way. A simplified version of CAPS score (sCAPS) including respiratory rate instead of SIRS was also assessed. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of CAPS and sCAPS scores was 0.92 in the training cohort with an optimal cutoff of 11 (sensitivity, 89%; specificity, 90%) and 6 (sensitivity, 96%; specificity, 77%), respectively. CAPS and sCAPS score were validated in the validation cohort with respective AUC of 0.91 and 0.96.Conclusions and clinical importance
We propose 2 scoring systems that allow early and accurate prediction of short-term death in dogs with AP.
SUBMITTER: Fabres V
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6430934 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:Infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) is a significant complication of acute necrotizing pancreatitis (ANP). Early identification of patients at high risk of IPN would enable appropriate treatment, but there is a lack of valid tools. This study aimed to assess the performance of the Pancreatitis Activity Scoring System (PASS) and its modifications (by removing or reducing the weight of opioid usage) in predicting IPN in a cohort of predicted severe ANP patients. Data was prospectively collected in the TRACE trial (2017-2020) involving 16 sites across China. The predictive performance of PASS, modified PASS (mPASS), and conventional indices were assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Hosmer-Lemeshow Ĉ-test, Brier score, and Fagan's nomogram. Multivariate logistic regression analysis (MLRA) was used to define the relationship between the best-performing PASS/mPASS model and IPN. A total of 508 subjects were enrolled (median age, 43 years; 62.8% males) in the original trial, and 122 developed IPN (24%) within 90 days after randomization. Compared with non-IPN patients, the scores of PASS and its modified models were significantly higher in the IPN patients (all p < 0.001). Among the PASS and its modifications, mPASS-4 had the largest AUC, the lowest Brier score, and good calibration. The mPASS-4 model demonstrated an AUC of 0.752 in predicting IPN (the optimal cut-off for the mPASS-4 was 292.5) and outperformed the conventional indices. The MLRA results showed that mPASS-4 >292.5 was an independent risk factor of IPN (OR: 3.6, 95% CI: 2.1-6.3). The PASS and its modifications during the first week of ANP onset predict the development of IPN, with mPASS-4 performing best. The mPASS-4 model simplifies the original PASS, increasing the likelihood of clinical implementation.
| S-EPMC9892470 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundA few models have been proposed for the prediction of the risk of post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis (PEP), but many include factors that are not assessed routinely. Herein, we intend to develop and validate a predictive model for the occurrence of PEP.MethodsData of patients who underwent endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) from January 01, 2016 to May 16, 2019 (training set and internal test set) and from May 17, 2019 to December 25, 2019 (external test set) were retrospectively collected. The performance of the model was validated in the two validation cohorts.ResultsA total of 342 patients were included for the external test set, and 47 (13.7%) developed PEP. The variables included in the scoring system were gastrectomy history, high direct bilirubin (DBIL), high albumin (ALB), villous type of papillary orifice, nodular type of papillary orifice, pancreatic guidewire passages, precut sphincterotomy, and high operator experience. A total score >5 indicated high risk. In the external test set, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.718, the sensitivity was 0.723, and the specificity was 0.676. In the external test set, the probability of PEP was 6.1%, 17.0%, and 37.5% in patients with low (<0), moderate (0-5), and high (>5) risk scores, respectively.ConclusionsThis study established a scoring system for predicting the risk of PEP using routinely measured clinical variables. Its application in routine work warrants further investigation.
| S-EPMC7661903 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVES:Acute pancreatitis has a highly variable course. Currently there is no widely accepted method to measure disease activity in patients hospitalized for acute pancreatitis. We aimed to develop a clinical activity index that incorporates routine clinical parameters to assist in the measurement, study, and management of acute pancreatitis. METHODS:We used the UCLA/RAND appropriateness method to identify items for inclusion in the disease activity instrument. We conducted a systematic literature review followed by two sets of iterative modified Delphi meetings including a panel of international experts between November 2014 and November 2015. The final instrument was then applied to patient data obtained from five separate study cohorts across Southern California to assess profiles of disease activity. RESULTS:From a list of 35 items comprising 6 domains, we identified 5 parameters for inclusion in the final weighted clinical activity scoring system: organ failure, systemic inflammatory response syndrome, abdominal pain, requirement for opiates and ability to tolerate oral intake. We applied the weighted scoring system across the 5 study cohorts comprising 3,123 patients. We identified several distinct patterns of disease activity: (i) overall there was an elevated score at baseline relative to discharge across all study cohorts, (ii) there were distinct patterns of disease activity related to duration of illness as well as (iii) early and persistent elevation of disease activity among patients with severe acute pancreatitis defined as persistent organ failure. CONCLUSIONS:We present the development and initial validation of a clinical activity score for real-time assessment of disease activity in patients with acute pancreatitis.
| S-EPMC5519418 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background & aimsThe aims of this study were to: (1) assess the performance of the Pancreatitis Activity Scoring System (PASS) in a large intercontinental cohort of patients with acute pancreatitis (AP); and (2) investigate whether a modified PASS (mPASS) yields a similar predictive accuracy and produces distinct early trajectories between severity subgroups.MethodsData was prospectively collected through the Acute Pancreatitis Patient Registry to Examine Novel Therapies In Clinical Experience (APPRENTICE) consortium (2015-2018) involving 22 centers from 4 continents. AP severity was categorized per the revised Atlanta classification. PASS trajectories were compared between the three severity groups using the generalized estimating equations model. Four mPASS models were generated by modifying the morphine equivalent dose (MED), and their trajectories were compared.ResultsA total of 1393 subjects were enrolled (median age, 49 years; 51% males). The study cohort included 950 mild (68.2%), 315 (22.6%) moderately severe, and 128 (9.2%) severe AP. Mild cases had the lowest PASS at each study time point (all P < .001). A subset of patients with outlier admission PASS values was identified. In the outlier group, 70% of the PASS variation was attributed to the MED, and 66% of these patients were from the United States centers. Among the 4 modified models, the mPASS-1 (excluding MED from PASS) demonstrated high performance in predicting severe AP with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.88 (vs area under the receiver operating characteristic of 0.83 in conventional PASS) and produced distinct trajectories with distinct slopes between severity subgroups (all P < .001).ConclusionWe propose a modified model by removing the MED component, which is easier to calculate, predicts accurately severe AP, and maintains significantly distinct early trajectories.
| S-EPMC9060638 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVES:The Pancreatitis Activity Scoring System (PASS) has been derived by an international group of experts via a modified Delphi process. Our aim was to perform an external validation study to assess for concordance of the PASS score with high face validity clinical outcomes and determine specific meaningful thresholds to assist in application of this scoring system in a large prospectively ascertained cohort. METHODS:We analyzed data from a prospective cohort study of consecutive patients admitted to the Los Angeles County Hospital between March 2015 and March 2017. Patients were identified using an emergency department paging system and electronic alert system. Comprehensive characterization included substance use history, pancreatitis etiology, biochemical profile, and detailed clinical course. We calculated the PASS score at admission, discharge, and at 12?h increments during the hospitalization. We performed several analyses to assess the relationship between the PASS score and outcomes at various points during hospitalization as well as following discharge. Using multivariable logistic regression analysis, we assessed the relationship between admission PASS score and risk of severe pancreatitis. PASS score performance was compared to established systems used to predict severe pancreatitis. Additional inpatient outcomes assessed included local complications, length of stay, development of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), and intensive care unit (ICU) admission. We also assessed whether the PASS score at discharge was associated with early readmission (re-hospitalization for pancreatitis symptoms and complications within 30 days of discharge). RESULTS:A total of 439 patients were enrolled, their mean age was 42 (±15) years, and 53% were male. Admission PASS score >140 was associated with moderately severe and severe pancreatitis (OR 3.5 [95% CI 2.0, 6.3]), ICU admission (OR 4.9 [2.5, 9.4]), local complications (3.0 [1.6, 5.7]), and development of SIRS (OR 2.9 [1.8, 4.5]) as well as prolongation of hospitalization by a mean of 1.5 (1.3-1.7) days. For the prediction of moderately severe/severe pancreatitis, the PASS score (AUC?=?0.71) was comparable to the more established Ranson's (AUC?=?0.63), Glasgow (AUC?=?0.72), Panc3 (AUC?=?0.57), and HAPS (AUC?=?0.54) scoring systems. Discharge PASS score >60 was associated with early readmission (OR 5.0 [2.4, 10.7]). CONCLUSIONS:The PASS score is associated with important clinical outcomes in acute pancreatitis. The ability of the score to forecast important clinical events at different points in the disease course suggests that it is a valid measure of activity in patients with acute pancreatitis.
| S-EPMC6123248 | biostudies-literature
Project description:INTRODUCTION:The available prognostic scoring systems for severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) have limitations that restrict their clinical value. The aim of this study was to develop a simple model (score) that could rapidly identify those at risk for SAP. METHODS:We derived a risk model using a retrospective cohort of 700 patients by logistic regression and bootstrapping methods. The discriminative power of the risk model was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC). The classification and regression tree (CART) analysis was used to create risk categories. The model was internally validated by a tenfold cross-validation and externally validated in a separate prospective cohort of 194 patients. RESULTS:The incidence of SAP was 9.7% in the derivation cohort and 9.3% in the validation cohort. A prognostic score (We denoted it as the SABP score), ranging from 0 to 10, consisting of systemic inflammatory response syndrome, serum albumin, blood urea nitrogen and pleural effusion, was developed by logistic regression and bootstrapping analysis. Patients could be divided into three risk categories according to total SABP score based on CART analysis. The mean probability of developing SAP was 1.9%, 12.8% and 41.6% in patients with low (0-3), moderate (4-6) and high (7-10) SABP score, respectively. The AUCs of prognostic score in tenfold cross-validation was 0.873 and 0.872 in the external validation. CONCLUSION:Our risk prediction score may assist physicians in predicting the development of SAP.
| S-EPMC6505180 | biostudies-other
Project description:PurposeThe necrosis-fibrosis hypothesis describes a continuum between single attacks of acute pancreatitis (SAP), recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP) and chronic pancreatitis (CP) with endocrine and exocrine pancreatic insufficiency. For prevention purposes we evaluated clinico-radiological parameters and pancreatic volumetry to compare SAP and RAP and provide prognostic relevance on short-term mortality, need for intervention and the hospitalization duration.Materials and methodsWe retrospectively investigated 225 consecutive patients (150 males, range 19-97years) with acute pancreatitis (74%SAP, 26%RAP) according to the revised Atlanta classification. All patients received an intravenous contrast-enhanced CT after a median time of 5 (IQR 5-7) days after onset of symptoms. Two experienced observers rated the severity of AP by 3 CT scores (CTSI, mCTSI, EPIC). Moreover, total pancreatic volumes and additional parenchymal necrosis volumes were assessed, when appropriate. Clinical parameters were etiology of AP, lipase on admission, CRP 48 hours after admission (CRP48), and the presence of organ dysfunction, assessed by the modified Marshall score. The modified Marshall score included systolic blood pressure, serum creatinine, and the ratio of arterial oxygen partial pressure to fractional inspired oxygen (PaO2/FiO2 ratio) and was assessed on admission and 48 hours after admission to find patients with persistent organ failure. Outcome parameters were total hospitalization duration, short-term mortality and need for intervention.ResultsLipase, CRP48, etiology of AP, EPIC, PaO2/FiO2 ratio, and the presence of a pleural effusion differed significantly in both groups (p<0.05). In 109 patients with interstitial edematous AP, the total pancreatic volume was significantly smaller in patients with RAP compared to those with SAP (69±35cm3; (RAP) vs 106±45cm3; (SAP), p<0.001). All outcome parameters including the mortality rates (SAP vs. RAP: 15% vs. 7%) were comparable in both groups (p>0.05). In the necrotizing RAP group, only the necrotic volume correlated significantly with total hospitalization time (r = 0.72, p<0.001), whereas the systolic blood pressure was the only, but weak predictor for short-term mortality (β-coefficient: -0.05, p = 0.03) and the need for intervention (β-coefficient: -0.02, p = 0.048) in the total RAP group. In patients with SAP, the modified Marshall score was the strongest predictor of short-term mortality, followed by the mCTSI on multivariate logistic regression (Marshall score: β-coefficient: 1.79, p<0.001; mCTSI: β-coefficient: 0.40, p<0.001). CTSI was the best predictor for required intervention in necrotizing SAP (β-coefficient: 0.46, p<0.001), followed by the volume of intrapancreatic necrosis (β-coefficient: 0.17, p = 0.03).ConclusionTotal pancreatic volume differed significantly between interstitial RAP and SAP and intrapancreatic necrosis volume revealed prognostic value for the total hospitalization duration in necrotizing RAP. Although all outcome parameters were comparable between SAP and RAP, only systolic blood pressure and pancreatic volumetry were prognostic in RAP. In SAP, only the modified Marshall score and mCTSI revealed prognostic value for short-term mortality, whereas CTSI was predictive for the need for intervention.
| S-EPMC6201910 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAcute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) contributes millions of emergency department (ED) visits and it is associated with high in-hospital mortality. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a multiparametric score for critically-ill ADHF patients.MethodsIn this single-center, retrospective study, a total of 1268 ADHF patients in China were enrolled and divided into derivation (n = 1014) and validation (n = 254) cohorts. The primary endpoint was any in-hospital death, cardiac arrest or utilization of mechanical support devices. Logistic regression model was preformed to identify risk factors and build the new scoring system. The assigning point of each parameter was determined according to its β coefficient. The discrimination was validated internally using C statistic and calibration was evaluated by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test.ResultsWe constructed a predictive score based on six significant risk factors [systolic blood pressure (SBP), white blood cell (WBC) count, hematocrit (HCT), total bilirubin (TBIL), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and NT-proBNP]. This new model was computed as (1 × SBP < 90 mmHg) + (2 × WBC > 9.2 × 109/L) + (1 × HCT ≤ 0.407) + (2 × TBIL > 34.2 μmol/L) + (2 × eGFR < 15 ml/min/1.73 m2) + (1 × NTproBNP ≥ 10728.9 ng/ml). The C statistic for the new score was 0.758 (95% CI 0.667-0.838) higher than APACHE II, AHEAD and ADHERE score. It also demonstrated good calibration for detecting high-risk patients in the validation cohort (χ2 = 6.681, p = 0.463).ConclusionsThe new score including SBP, WBC, HCT, TBIL, eGFR and NT-proBNP might be used to predict short-term prognosis of Chinese critically-ill ADHF patients.
| S-EPMC8094523 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAcute necrotizing pancreatitis (ANP) can result in a significant healthcare burden. The present study aimed to develop a new scoring system to accurately and promptly identify patients with a high likelihood of mortality to determine the need for aggressive measures.MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed patients diagnosed with ANP using the National Inpatient Sample (NIS). The mortality in ANP during admission (MANP-A) scoring system was derived using multivariate Cox regression analysis and validated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves in a validation cohort.ResultsA total of 22,980 hospitalizations were identified in the derivation cohort. There was a predominance of males (65%) and white race (73%). Five variables showed significant association with mortality and were selected for developing the MANP-A scoring system: age ≥60 years; acute renal failure/kidney injury; sepsis with shock; vasopressor use; and disseminated intravascular coagulation. The MANP-A score has a maximum of 5 points and the cutoff for predicting mortality was set at 2 points. The area under the curve (AUC) using the ROC curve of the derivation cohort was 0.9195, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.8838-0.9551 (P<0.001) for 7- and 0.8954, 95%CI 0.8723-0.9185 (P<0.001) for 30-day periods. The AUC of the Validation Cohort was 0.9204, 95%CI 0.8937-0.9469 (P<0.001) for 7- and 0.9059, 95%CI 0.8893-0.9223 (P<0.001) for 30-day periods.ConclusionWe propose a simple and objective score for predicting ANP inpatient mortality at 7- and 30-day intervals with high validity.
| S-EPMC9399582 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundTo construct and validate a simple and easily administered scoring tool for the prediction of short-term prognostic survival in adult patients with sepsis.MethodsThis study is a retrospective and prospective cohort study. A total of 382 patients with sepsis. 274 sepsis patients from January 2020 to December 2020 were collected as the modeling group and 54 sepsis patients from January 2021 to December 2021 and April to May 2022 in the hospital were randomly collected as the validation group. They were divided into survival and non-survival groups according to the outcome. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted with subgroup analysis. The resulting models were tested using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The prognostic value of the variables on prognosis was expressed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). A scoring tool was constructed and tested for the prognostic value of this score in the validation group.ResultsThe model had an AUC of 0.880 [95% CI (0.838-0.922), P < 0.001], model sensitivity of 81.15%, and specificity of 80.26% for predicting short-term prognosis in patients with sepsis. Further simplifying the model scoring rules and adding the lactate variable, the AUCs was 0.876 [95% CI (0.833-0.918)], P < 0.001], sensitivity was 78.69%, specificity was 82.89%, and scoring criteria were established. the AUCs of the internally validated model in 2021 and 2022 were 0.968 [95% CI (0.916 to 1.000), P < 0.001] and 0.943 [95% CI (0.873 to 1.000), P < 0.001], indicating that the constructed scoring tool has a good predictive value for short-term survival outcomes in patients with sepsis.ConclusionsAge, shock, lactate, lactate/albumin ratio (L/A), and interleukin-6 (IL-6) are five risk factors for adult sepsis prognosis in an early emergency. This scoring tool is developed to quickly assess the short-term survival outcome in adult sepsis patients. It is straightforward and easy to administer. It also has a high prognostic predictive value.The Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR2200058375).
| S-EPMC10070133 | biostudies-literature