Dataset Information

A new scoring system for predicting short-term outcomes in Chinese patients with critically-ill acute decompensated heart failure.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) contributes millions of emergency department (ED) visits and it is associated with high in-hospital mortality. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a multiparametric score for critically-ill ADHF patients.

Methods

In this single-center, retrospective study, a total of 1268 ADHF patients in China were enrolled and divided into derivation (n = 1014) and validation (n = 254) cohorts. The primary endpoint was any in-hospital death, cardiac arrest or utilization of mechanical support devices. Logistic regression model was preformed to identify risk factors and build the new scoring system. The assigning point of each parameter was determined according to its β coefficient. The discrimination was validated internally using C statistic and calibration was evaluated by the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test.

Results

We constructed a predictive score based on six significant risk factors [systolic blood pressure (SBP), white blood cell (WBC) count, hematocrit (HCT), total bilirubin (TBIL), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and NT-proBNP]. This new model was computed as (1 × SBP < 90 mmHg) + (2 × WBC > 9.2 × 10⁹/L) + (1 × HCT ≤ 0.407) + (2 × TBIL > 34.2 μmol/L) + (2 × eGFR < 15 ml/min/1.73 m²) + (1 × NTproBNP ≥ 10728.9 ng/ml). The C statistic for the new score was 0.758 (95% CI 0.667-0.838) higher than APACHE II, AHEAD and ADHERE score. It also demonstrated good calibration for detecting high-risk patients in the validation cohort (χ² = 6.681, p = 0.463).

Conclusions

The new score including SBP, WBC, HCT, TBIL, eGFR and NT-proBNP might be used to predict short-term prognosis of Chinese critically-ill ADHF patients.

SUBMITTER: Mo R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8094523 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:IntroductionThere is a dearth of comprehensive studies on the association between serum electrolyte and adverse short-term prognosis of Chinese patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF).Patients and methodsA total of 5166 patients with ADHF were divided into four serum electrolyte-related study populations (potassium (n = 5145), sodium (n = 5135), chloride (n = 4966), serum total calcium (STC) (n = 4143)) under corresponding exclusions. Different logistic regression models were utilized to gauge the association between these electrolytes or the number of electrolyte abnormalities and the risk of a composite of all-cause mortality or 30-day heart failure (HF) readmission.ResultsIn multivariable adjusted analysis, patients with potassium below 3.5 mmol/L (odds ratios (ORs) 1.45; 95% confidence interval (CI):1.07-1.95), 4.01-4.50 mmol/L (OR: 1.29, CI: 1.02-1.62), 4.51-5.00 mmol/L (OR: 1.43, CI: 1.08-1.90) and above 5.00 mmol/L (OR: 1.74, CI: 1.21-2.51) had an increased risk of outcome when compared with potassium at 3.50-4.00 mmol/L. Sodium levels were inversely related to the risk of a composite outcome (<130 mmol/L: OR: 2.73 (95% CI, 1.81-4.12); 130-134 mmol/L: OR, 1.97 (CI, 1.45-2.68); 135-140 mmol/L: OR, 1.45 (CI, 1.17-1.81); p for trend < 0.001) in comparison with sodium at 141-145 mmol/L. Chloride < 95 mmol/L corresponded to a higher risk of a composite outcome with an OR of 1.65 (95% CI, 1.16-2.37) in contrast to chloride levels at 101-105 mmol/L. In addition, the adjusted ORs (95% CI) for a composite outcome comparing the STC < 2.00 and 2.00-2.24 vs. 2.25-2.58 mmol/L were 0.98 (0.69-1.43) and 1.13 (0.89-1.44), respectively. Besides that, the number of electrolyte abnormalities was positively related to the risk of a composite outcome (N = 1, OR 1.40, 95% CI: 1.13-1.73; N = 2, OR 2.51, 95% CI: 1.85-3.42; N = 3, OR 2.47, 95% CI: 1.45-4.19; p for trend < 0.001) in comparison with N = 0.ConclusionsA deviation of potassium levels from 3.50 to 4.00 mmol/L, lower sodium levels and hypochloremia were associated with poorer short-term prognosis of ADHF. Furthermore, the number of electrolyte abnormalities positively correlated with adverse short-term prognosis of patients with ADHF. Key MessagesADHF patients with baseline serum potassium at first half part of normal range (3.50-4.00 mmol/L) may herald the lowest risk of recent cardiovascular events.Serum sodium and chloride levels exhibit discrepancies in terms of risk of short-term adverse events of ADHF patients.The number of electrolyte abnormalities is a significant predictor of poor short-term prognosis in patients with ADHF.Clinical trial registration urlhttp://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=23139. Unique identifier: ChiCTR-POC-17014020.

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