Integrated assessment of short-term direct and indirect economic flood impacts including uncertainty quantification.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Sieg T
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6448844 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundAccurate quantification of radioactivity in a source of interest relies on accurate registration between SPECT and anatomical images, and appropriate correction of partial volume effects (PVEs). For small volumes, exact registration between the two imaging modalities and recovery factors used to correct for PVE are unreliable. There is currently no guidance relating to quantification or the associated uncertainty estimation for small volumes.Material and methodsA method for quantification of small sources of interest is proposed, which uses multiple oversized volumes of interest. The method was applied to three Na[131I]I activity distributions where a Na[131I]I capsule was situated within a cylindrical phantom containing either zero background, uniform background or non-uniform background and to a scenario with small lesions placed in an anthropomorphic phantom. The Na[131I]I capsule and lesions were quantified using the proposed method and compared with measurements made using two alternative quantification methods. The proposed method was also applied to assess the absorbed dose delivered to a bone metastasis following [131I]mIBG therapy for neuroblastoma including the associated uncertainty estimation.ResultsThe method is accurate across a range of activities and in varied radioactivity distributions. Median percentage errors using the proposed method in no background, uniform backgrounds and non-uniform backgrounds were - 0.4%, - 0.3% and 1.7% with median associated uncertainties of 1.4%, 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively. The technique is more accurate and robust when compared to currently available alternative methods.ConclusionsThe proposed method provides a reliable and accurate method for quantification of sources of interest, which are less than three times the spatial resolution of the imaging system. The method may be of use in absorbed dose calculation in cases of bone metastasis, lung metastasis or thyroid remnants.
| S-EPMC9748012 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Cash holding is an important strategic decision of enterprises. As a macro-level factor, economic policy uncertainty causes risks, affecting enterprises' cash holdings. Taking the quarterly financial data of China's A-share non-financial listed firms for 2010-2020 as a sample, this study adopts the OLS and fixed effect models to investigate how corporate cash holdings are affected by economic policy uncertainty. The findings indicate that economic policy uncertainty is directly proportional to the level of cash that listed corporations hold. The higher the uncertainty, the more cash the company holds. Among them, state-owned enterprises and the manufacturing industry are more significantly affected by economic policy uncertainty. Finally, considering the regional marketization level and the differences in financing constraints enterprises face, it is concluded through grouping empirical studies that enterprises located in regions with lower marketization levels are more susceptible to policy uncertainty, while financially constrained enterprises are more susceptible to economic policy uncertainty. The study of economic policy uncertainty is helpful to guide enterprises to realize the importance of coping strategies in advance under the background of intensifying economic policy uncertainty. Therefore, this paper proposes to introduce policies on the premise of fully considering the smoothness of the economy and the differences in the conditions of firms of different natures, as well as some proposals to alleviate financing constraints, reduce the adverse effects of uncertainty on firms, and bolster the marketization process.
| S-EPMC10664914 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Rising sea levels increase the probability of future coastal flooding. Many decision-makers use risk analyses to inform the design of sea-level rise (SLR) adaptation strategies. These analyses are often silent on potentially relevant uncertainties. For example, some previous risk analyses use the expected, best, or large quantile (i.e., 90%) estimate of future SLR. Here, we use a case study to quantify and illustrate how neglecting SLR uncertainties can bias risk projections. Specifically, we focus on the future 100-yr (1% annual exceedance probability) coastal flood height (storm surge including SLR) in the year 2100 in the San Francisco Bay area. We find that accounting for uncertainty in future SLR increases the return level (the height associated with a probability of occurrence) by half a meter from roughly 2.2 to 2.7 m, compared to using the mean sea-level projection. Accounting for this uncertainty also changes the shape of the relationship between the return period (the inverse probability that an event of interest will occur) and the return level. For instance, incorporating uncertainties shortens the return period associated with the 2.2 m return level from a 100-yr to roughly a 7-yr return period (∼15% probability). Additionally, accounting for this uncertainty doubles the area at risk of flooding (the area to be flooded under a certain height; e.g., the 100-yr flood height) in San Francisco. These results indicate that the method of accounting for future SLR can have considerable impacts on the design of flood risk management strategies.
| S-EPMC5370151 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMigraine is a primary headache disorder which affects all aspects of life. The financial burden of migraine imposed on the society might be substantial. This study aims at estimating the economic cost of migraine in Latvia and Lithuania, including both direct and indirect costs. Direct costs encompass the costs of migraine-related health care resource utilization. Indirect costs are related to productivity loss, the potential or expected earnings lost due to migraine.MethodsDirect cost is assessed by using the prevalence method, a widely used cost-of-illness approach. The prevalence rate of migraine and the migraine-related health care resource utilization are proxied from the literature, whereas unit cost of medical services and procedures are retrieved from national databases and providers. For estimating the indirect cost of migraine, we follow the human capital approach. We quantify three components of indirect costs: reduced labour force participation, absence from work and reduced productivity while at work. The number of unemployed migraineurs, days missed from work and days lost due to impairment while at work are drawn from the literature. Unemployment rate and average income in Latvia and Lithuania are then inserted to assess indirect costs.ResultsWe find that the mean per-person total cost of migraine is €801 annually in Latvia, and €721 in Lithuania. In both countries around 30% of total cost is direct cost; cost related to a wide array of migraine-related medical services and interventions. The total cost of migraine is €112.26 million in Latvia, corresponding to 0.42% of Latvia's GDP. The total cost of migraine is €149.62 million in Lithuania, corresponding to 0.35% of Lithuania's GDP. In both countries two thirds of total cost is related to lost workdays due to absenteeism and presenteeism.ConclusionsThe financial burden of migraine imposed on the society is substantial in Latvia and Lithuania. Improvements in care for patients with migraine, such as easier access to structured headache assessment services, wider availability of various procedures and preventive medications would significantly increase direct costs. Nevertheless, this cost increase might be far outweighed by lower migraine-related productivity loss, especially as the prevalence of migraine is the highest in the most productive years of life.
| S-EPMC6734255 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Global demands on agricultural land are increasing due to population growth, dietary changes and the use of biofuels. Their effect on food security is to reduce humans' ability to cope with the uncertainties of global climate change. In light of the 2008 food crisis, to secure reliable future access to sufficient agricultural land, many nations and corporations have begun purchasing large tracts of land in the global South, a phenomenon deemed "land grabbing" by popular media. Because land investors frequently export crops without providing adequate employment, this represents an effective income loss for local communities. We study 28 countries targeted by large-scale land acquisitions [comprising 87 % of reported cases and 27 million hectares (ha)] and estimate the effects of such investments on local communities' incomes. We find that this phenomenon can potentially affect the incomes of ~12 million people globally with implications for food security, poverty levels and urbanization. While it is important to note that our study incorporates a number of assumptions and limitations, it provides a much needed initial quantification of the economic impacts of large-scale land acquisitions on rural livelihoods.
| S-EPMC4223572 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In this paper we focus on the 'Christmas' flood in York (UK), 2015. The case is special in the sense that little infrastructure was lost or damaged, while a single industry (IT services) was completely knocked out for a limited time. Due to these characteristics, the standard modelling techniques are no longer appropriate. An alternative option is provided by the Hypothetical Extraction Method, or HEM. However, there are restrictions in using the HEM, one being that no realistic substitutes exist for inputs from industries that were affected. In this paper we discuss these restrictions and show that the HEM performs well in the York flood case. In the empirical part of this paper we show that a three-day shutdown of the IT services caused a £3.24?m to £4.23?m loss in York, which is equivalent to 10% of the three days' average GVA (Gross Value Added) of York city. The services sector (excluding IT services) sustained the greatest loss at £0.80?m, where the business support industry which was predominantly hit. This study is the first to apply a HEM in this type of flood on a daily basis.
| S-EPMC6501656 | biostudies-literature
Project description:A tailor-made survey documents consumers' perceptions of the US economy's response to a large shock: the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey ran at a daily frequency between March 2020 and July 2021. Consumer's perceptions regarding output and inflation react rapidly. Uncertainty is pervasive. A business-cycle model calibrated to the consumers' views provides an interpretation. The rise in household uncertainty accounts for two-thirds of the fall in output. Different perceptions about monetary policy can explain why consumers and professional forecasters agree on the recessionary impact, but have sharply divergent views about inflation.
| S-EPMC8827064 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death worldwide, but the additional economic burden regarding direct and indirect costs is largely unknown. This study provides information on the economic consequences of lung cancer on a national level. Methods: From the Danish National Patient Registry (NPR) and the Danish Civil Registration System (CPR), 53,749 patients with lung cancer were identified and matched with 214,304 controls on age, gender, region of residence and marital status in the period 1998-2010. Direct and indirect costs, health care contacts and frequency, medication and social transfer payments were extracted from national databases. Results: Direct health care cost were higher for lung cancer patients than controls both before and after being diagnosed with lung cancer. At the year of diagnosis, health care cost peaked with cost of €21,497 compared to €2,880 for controls. Average difference in income from employment was €+3,118 in years prior to diagnosis and €+748 after diagnosis in favor of controls. Average difference in total public transfer income was €+1,288 before and €+441 after diagnosis, with higher public transfer income for lung cancer patients. Conclusion: For both genders, lung cancer was associated with significantly higher rates of health-related costs, medication costs, public transfer income, social transfer payments and significantly lower income from employment until retirement (age 65).
| S-EPMC8330737 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) is a debilitating chronic illness affecting at least 4 million people in the United States. Understanding its cost improves decisions regarding resource allocation that may be directed towards treatment and cure, and guides the evaluation of clinical and community interventions designed to reduce the burden of disease.This research estimated direct and indirect costs of CFS and the impact on educational attainment using a population-based, case-control study between September 2004 and July 2005, Georgia, USA. Participants completed a clinical evaluation to confirm CFS, identify other illnesses, and report on socioeconomic factors. We estimated the effect of CFS on direct medical costs (inpatient hospitalizations, provider visits, prescription medication spending, other medical supplies and services) and loss in productivity (employment and earnings) with a stratified sample (n = 500) from metropolitan, urban, and rural Georgia. We adjusted medical costs and earnings for confounders (age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, and geographic strata) using econometric models and weighted estimates to reflect response-rate adjusted sampling rates.Individuals with CFS had mean annual direct medical costs of $5,683. After adjusting for confounding factors, CFS accounted for $3,286 of these costs (p < 0.01), which were driven by increased provider visits and prescription medication use. Nearly one-quarter of these expenses were paid directly out-of pocket by those with CFS. Individuals with CFS reported mean annual household income of $23,076. After adjustment, CFS accounted for $8,554 annually in lost household earnings (p < 0.01). Lower educational attainment accounted for 19% of the reduction in earnings associated with CFS.Study results indicate that chronic fatigue syndrome may lead to substantial increases in healthcare costs and decreases in individual earnings. Studies have estimated up to 2.5% of non-elderly adults may suffer from CFS. In Georgia, a state with roughly 5.5 million people age 18-59, illness could account for $452 million in total healthcare expenditures and $1.2 billion of lost productivity.
| S-EPMC3033815 | biostudies-other
Project description:Urban environments, regarded as "harbingers" of future global change, may exert positive or negative impacts on urban vegetation growth. Because of limited ground-based experiments, the responses of vegetation to urbanization and its associated controlling factors at the global scale remain poorly understood. Here, we use satellite observations from 2001 to 2018 to quantify direct and indirect impacts of urbanization on vegetation growth in 672 worldwide cities. After controlling for the negative direct impact of urbanization on vegetation growth, we find a widespread positive indirect effect that has been increasing over time. These indirect effects depend on urban development intensity, population density, and background climate, with more pronounced positive effects in cities with cold and arid environments. We further show that vegetation responses to urbanization are modulated by a cities' developmental status. Our findings have important implications for understanding urbanization-induced impacts on vegetation and future sustainable urban development.
| S-EPMC9269895 | biostudies-literature