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Assessing the economic impacts of IT service shutdown during the York flood of 2015 in the UK.

ABSTRACT: In this paper we focus on the 'Christmas' flood in York (UK), 2015. The case is special in the sense that little infrastructure was lost or damaged, while a single industry (IT services) was completely knocked out for a limited time. Due to these characteristics, the standard modelling techniques are no longer appropriate. An alternative option is provided by the Hypothetical Extraction Method, or HEM. However, there are restrictions in using the HEM, one being that no realistic substitutes exist for inputs from industries that were affected. In this paper we discuss these restrictions and show that the HEM performs well in the York flood case. In the empirical part of this paper we show that a three-day shutdown of the IT services caused a £3.24?m to £4.23?m loss in York, which is equivalent to 10% of the three days' average GVA (Gross Value Added) of York city. The services sector (excluding IT services) sustained the greatest loss at £0.80?m, where the business support industry which was predominantly hit. This study is the first to apply a HEM in this type of flood on a daily basis.

SUBMITTER: Xia Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6501656 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ObjectiveNew York City (NYC) is home to the largest public healthcare system in the United States and was an early epicenter of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections. This system serves as the safety net for underserved and marginalized communities disproportionately affected by the pandemic. Prior studies reported substantial declines in pediatric emergency department (ED) volume during the initial pandemic surge, but few describe the ongoing impact of COVID-19 throughout the year. We evaluated the characteristics of pediatric ED visits to NYC public hospitals during the pandemic lockdown and reopening periods of 2020 compared to the prior year.MethodsRetrospective cross-sectional analysis of pediatric ED visits from 11 NYC public hospitals from January 2019-December 2020. Visit demographics, throughput times, and diagnosis information during the early (3/7/20-6/7/20) and late (6/8/20-12/31/20) pandemic periods coinciding with the New York State of emergency declaration (3/7/20) and the first reopening date (6/7/20) were compared to similar time periods in 2019. Findings were correlated with key pandemic shutdown and reopening events.ResultsThere was a 47% decrease in ED volume in 2020 compared to 2019 (125,649 versus 238,024 visits). After reopening orders began in June 2020, volumes increased but peaked at <60% of 2019 volumes. Admission rates, triage acuity, and risk of presenting with a serious medical illness were significantly higher in 2020 versus 2019 (P < 0.001). Time-to-provider times decreased however provider-to-disposition times increased during the pandemic (P < 0.001). Infectious and asthma diagnoses declined >70% during the pandemic in contrast to the year prior. After reopening periods began, penetrating traumatic injuries significantly increased compared to 2019 [+34%, Relative Risk: 3.2 (2.6, 3.8)].ConclusionsNYC public hospitals experienced a sharp decrease in pediatric volume but an increase in patient acuity during both the initial pandemic surge and through the reopening periods. As COVID-19 variants emerge, the threat of the current pandemic expanding remains. Understanding its influence on pediatric ED utilization can optimize resource allocation and ensure equitable care for future surge events.

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Assessing the economic impacts of IT service shutdown during the York flood of 2015 in the UK.

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