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Prediction of incident vertebral fracture using CT-based finite element analysis.

ABSTRACT: Prior studies show vertebral strength from computed tomography-based finite element analysis may be associated with vertebral fracture risk. We found vertebral strength had a strong association with new vertebral fractures, suggesting that vertebral strength measures identify those at risk for vertebral fracture and may be a useful clinical tool. INTRODUCTION:We aimed to determine the association between vertebral strength by quantitative computed tomography (CT)-based finite element analysis (FEA) and incident vertebral fracture (VF). In addition, we examined sensitivity and specificity of previously proposed diagnostic thresholds for fragile bone strength and low BMD in predicting VF. METHODS:In a case-control study, 26 incident VF cases (13 men, 13 women) and 62 age- and sex-matched controls aged 50 to 85 years were selected from the Framingham multi-detector computed tomography cohort. Vertebral compressive strength, integral vBMD, trabecular vBMD, CT-based BMC, and CT-based aBMD were measured from CT scans of the lumbar spine. RESULTS:Lower vertebral strength at baseline was associated with an increased risk of new or worsening VF after adjusting for age, BMI, and prevalent VF status (odds ratio (OR)?=?5.2 per 1 SD decrease, 95% CI 1.3-19.8). Area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve comparisons revealed that vertebral strength better predicted incident VF than CT-based aBMD (AUC?=?0.804 vs. 0.715, p?=?0.05) but was not better than integral vBMD (AUC?=?0.815) or CT-based BMC (AUC?=?0.794). Additionally, proposed fragile bone strength thresholds trended toward better sensitivity for identifying VF than that of aBMD-classified osteoporosis (0.46 vs. 0.23, p?=?0.09). CONCLUSION:This study shows an association between vertebral strength measures and incident vertebral fracture in men and women. Though limited by a small sample size, our findings also suggest that bone strength estimates by CT-based FEA provide equivalent or better ability to predict incident vertebral fracture compared to CT-based aBMD. Our study confirms that CT-based estimates of vertebral strength from FEA are useful for identifying patients who are at high risk for vertebral fracture.

SUBMITTER: Allaire BT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6450770 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prediction of incident vertebral fracture using CT-based finite element analysis.

Allaire B T BT Lu D D Johannesdottir F F Kopperdahl D D Keaveny T M TM Jarraya M M Guermazi A A Bredella M A MA Samelson E J EJ Kiel D P DP Anderson D E DE Demissie S S Bouxsein M L ML

Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA 20181010 2

Prior studies show vertebral strength from computed tomography-based finite element analysis may be associated with vertebral fracture risk. We found vertebral strength had a strong association with new vertebral fractures, suggesting that vertebral strength measures identify those at risk for vertebral fracture and may be a useful clinical tool.<h4>Introduction</h4>We aimed to determine the association between vertebral strength by quantitative computed tomography (CT)-based finite element anal ...[more]

PMID: 30306225

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Project description:A bone fractures only when loaded beyond its strength. The purpose of this study was to determine the association of femoral strength, as estimated by finite element (FE) analysis of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans, with incident hip fracture in comparison to hip bone mineral density (BMD), Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX), and hip structure analysis (HSA) variables. This prospective case-cohort study included a random sample of 1941 women and 668 incident hip fracture cases (295 in the random sample) during a mean?±?SD follow-up of 12.8?±?5.7 years from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (n?=?7860 community-dwelling women ?67 years of age). We analyzed the baseline DXA scans (Hologic 1000) of the hip using a validated plane-stress, linear-elastic finite element (FE) model of the proximal femur and estimated the femoral strength during a simulated sideways fall. Cox regression accounting for the case-cohort design assessed the association of estimated femoral strength with hip fracture. The age-body mass index (BMI)-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) per SD decrease for estimated strength (2.21; 95% CI, 1.95-2.50) was greater than that for total hip (TH) BMD (1.86; 95% CI, 1.67-2.08; p?<?0.05), FN BMD (2.04; 95% CI, 1.79-2.32; p?>?0.05), FRAX scores (range, 1.32-1.68; p?<?0.0005), and many HSA variables (range, 1.13-2.43; p?<?0.005), and the association was still significant (p?<?0.05) after further adjustment for hip BMD or FRAX scores. The association of estimated strength with incident hip fracture was strong (Harrell's?C index 0.770), significantly better than TH BMD (0.759; p?<?0.05) and FRAX scores (0.711-0.743; p?<?0.0001), but not FN BMD (0.762; p?>?0.05). Similar findings were obtained for intracapsular and extracapsular fractures. In conclusion, the estimated femoral strength from FE analysis of DXA scans is an independent predictor and performs at least as well as FN BMD in predicting incident hip fracture in postmenopausal women.

Project description:Objective. To conduct cost-utility analyses for Computed Tomography To Strength (CT2S), a novel osteoporosis screening service, compared with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), treat all without screening, and no screening methods for Dutch postmenopausal women referred to fracture liaison service (FLS). CT2S uses CT scans to generate femur models and simulate sideways fall scenarios for bone strength assessment. Methods. Early health technology assessment (HTA) was adopted to evaluate CT2S as a novel osteoporosis screening tool for secondary fracture prevention. We constructed a 2-dimensional simulation model considering 4 strategies (no screening, treat all without screening, DXA, CT2S) together with screening intervals (5 y, 2 y), treatments (oral alendronate, zoledronic acid), and discount rate scenarios among Dutch women in 3 age groups (60s, 70s, and 80s). Strategy comparisons were based on incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), considering an ICER below €20,000 per QALY gained as cost-effective in the Netherlands. Results. Under the base-case scenario, CT2S versus DXA had estimated ICERs of €41,200 and €14,083 per QALY gained for the 60s and 70s age groups, respectively. For the 80s age group, CT2S was more effective and less costly than DXA. Changing treatment from weekly oral alendronate to annual zoledronic acid substantially decreased CT2S versus DXA ICERs across all age groups. Setting the screening interval to 2 y increased CT2S versus DXA ICERs to €100,333, €55,571, and €15,750 per QALY gained for the 60s, 70s, and 80s age groups, respectively. In all simulated populations and scenarios, CT2S was cost-effective (in some cases dominant) compared with the treat all strategy and cost-saving (more effective and less costly) compared with no screening. Conclusion. CT2S was estimated to be potentially cost-effective in the 70s and 80s age groups considering the willingness-to-pay threshold of the Netherlands. This early HTA suggests CT2S as a potential novel osteoporosis screening tool for secondary fracture prevention.HighlightsFor postmenopausal Dutch women who have been referred to the FLS, direct access to CT2S may be cost-effective compared with DXA for age groups 70s and 80s, when considering the ICER threshold of the Netherlands. This study positions CT2S as a potential novel osteoporosis-screening tool for secondary fracture prevention in the clinical setting.A shorter screening interval of 2 y increases the effectiveness of both screening strategies, but the ICER of CT2S compared with DXA also increased substantially, which made CT2S no longer cost-effective for the 70s age group; however, it remains cost-effective for individuals in their 80s.Annual zoledronic acid treatment with better adherence may contribute to a lower cost-effectiveness ratio when comparing CT2S to DXA screening and the treat all strategies for all age groups.

Dataset Information

Prediction of incident vertebral fracture using CT-based finite element analysis.

Publications

Prediction of incident vertebral fracture using CT-based finite element analysis.

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