Dataset Information

The potential effects of climate change on air quality across the conterminous U.S. at 2030 under three Representative Concentration Pathways.

ABSTRACT: The potential impacts of climate change on regional ozone (O3) and fine particulate (PM2.5) air quality in the United States are investigated by linking global climate simulations with regional scale meteorological and chemical transport models. Regional climate at 2000 and at 2030 under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) is simulated by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to downscale 11-year time slices from the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The downscaled meteorology is then used with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to simulate air quality during each of these 11-year periods. The analysis isolates the future air quality differences arising from climate-driven changes in meteorological parameters and specific natural emissions sources that are strongly influenced by meteorology. Other factors that will affect future air quality, such as anthropogenic air pollutant emissions and chemical boundary conditions, are unchanged across the simulations. The regional climate fields represent historical daily maximum and daily minimum temperatures well, with mean biases less than 2 K for most regions of the U.S. and most seasons of the year and good representation of variability. Precipitation in the central and eastern U.S. is well simulated for the historical period, with seasonal and annual biases generally less than 25%, with positive biases exceeding 25% in the western U.S. throughout the year and in part of the eastern U.S. during summer. Maximum daily 8-h ozone (MDA8 O3) is projected to increase during summer and autumn in the central and eastern U.S. The increase in summer mean MDA8 O3 is largest under RCP8.5, exceeding 4 ppb in some locations, with smaller seasonal mean increases of up to 2 ppb simulated during autumn and changes during spring generally less than 1 ppb. Increases are magnified at the upper end of the O3 distribution, particularly where projected increases in temperature are greater. Annual average PM2.5 concentration changes range from -1.0 to 1.0 ?g m-3. Organic PM2.5 concentrations increase during summer and autumn due to increased biogenic emissions. Aerosol nitrate decreases during winter, accompanied by lesser decreases in ammonium and sulfate, due to warmer temperatures causing increased partitioning to the gas phase. Among meteorological factors examined to account for modeled changes in pollution, temperature and isoprene emissions are found to have the largest changes and the greatest impact on O3 concentrations.

SUBMITTER: Nolte CG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6453137 | biostudies-literature | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The potential effects of climate change on air quality across the conterminous U.S. at 2030 under three Representative Concentration Pathways.

Nolte Christopher G CG Spero Tanya L TL Bowden Jared H JH Mallard Megan S MS Dolwick Patrick D PD

Atmospheric chemistry and physics 20180101 20

The potential impacts of climate change on regional ozone (O<sub>3</sub>) and fine particulate (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) air quality in the United States are investigated by linking global climate simulations with regional scale meteorological and chemical transport models. Regional climate at 2000 and at 2030 under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) is simulated by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to downscale 11-year time slices from the Community Earth System Mo ...[more]

PMID: 30972111

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Project description:Dynamical downscaling was applied in this study to link the global climate-chemistry model Community Atmosphere Model (CAM-Chem) with the regional models Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ). Two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were used to evaluate the climate impact on ozone concentrations in the 2050s. From the CAM-Chem global simulation results, ozone concentrations in the lower to mid-troposphere (surface to ~300 hPa), from mid- to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, decreases by the end of the 2050s (2057-2059) in RCP 4.5 compared to present (2001-2004), with the largest decrease of 4-10 ppbv occurring in the summer and the fall; and an increase as high as 10 ppbv in RCP 8.5 resulting from the increased methane emissions. From the regional model CMAQ simulation results, under the RCP 4.5 scenario (2057-2059), in the summer when photochemical reactions are the most active, the large ozone precursor emissions reduction leads to the greatest decrease of downscaled surface ozone concentrations compared to present (2001-2004), ranging from 6 to 10 ppbv. However, a few major cities show ozone increases of 3 to 7 ppbv due to weakened NO titration. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, in winter, downscaled ozone concentrations increase across nearly the entire continental US in winter, ranging from 3 to 10 ppbv due to increased methane emissions. More intense heat waves are projected to occur by the end of the 2050s in RCP 8.5, leading to a 0.3 ppbv to 2.0 ppbv increase (statistically significant except in the Southeast) of the mean maximum daily 8 h daily average (MDA8) ozone in nine climate regions in the US. Moreover, the upper 95% limit of MDA8 increase reaches 0.4 ppbv to 1.5 ppbv in RCP 4.5 and 0.6 ppbv to 3.2 ppbv in RCP 8.5. The magnitude differences of increase between RCP 4.5 and 8.5 also reflect that the increase of methane emissions may favor or strengthen the effect of heat waves.

Project description:Future expected changes in climate and human activity threaten many riparian habitats, particularly in the southwestern U.S. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt3.3.3) modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the Lucy's warbler (Oreothlypis luciae), the Southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) and the Western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus). Our goal was to provide site- and species-specific information that can be used by managers to identify areas for habitat conservation and/or restoration along the Rio Grande in New Mexico. We created models of suitable habitat for each species based on collection and survey samples and climate, biophysical, and vegetation data. We projected habitat suitability under future climates by applying these models to conditions generated from three climate models for 2030, 2060 and 2090. By comparing current and future distributions, we identified how habitats are likely to change as a result of changing climate and the consequences of those changes for these bird species. We also examined whether land ownership of high value sites shifts under changing climate conditions. Habitat suitability models performed well. Biophysical characteristics were more important that climate conditions for predicting habitat suitability with distance to water being the single most important predictor. Climate, though less important, was still influential and led to declines of suitable habitat of more than 60% by 2090. For all species, suitable habitat tended to shrink over time within the study area leaving a few core areas of high importance. Overall, climate changes will increase habitat fragmentation and reduce breeding habitat patch size. The best strategy for conserving bird species within the Rio Grande will include measures to maintain and restore critical habitat refugia. This study provides an example of a presence-only habitat model that can be used to inform the management of species at intermediate scales.

Project description:Climate change-driven temperature increases worsen air quality in places where coal combustion powers electricity for air conditioning. Climate solutions that substitute clean and renewable energy in place of polluting coal and promote adaptation to warming through reflective cool roofs can reduce cooling energy demand in buildings, lower power sector carbon emissions, and improve air quality and health. We investigate the air quality and health co-benefits of climate solutions in Ahmedabad, India-a city where air pollution levels exceed national health-based standards-through an interdisciplinary modeling approach. Using a 2018 baseline, we quantify changes in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution and all-cause mortality in 2030 from increasing renewable energy use (mitigation) and expanding Ahmedabad's cool roofs heat resilience program (adaptation). We apply local demographic and health data and compare a 2030 mitigation and adaptation (M&A) scenario to a 2030 business-as-usual (BAU) scenario (without climate change response actions), each relative to 2018 pollution levels. We estimate that the 2030 BAU scenario results in an increase of PM2.5 air pollution of 4.13 µg m-3 from 2018 compared to a 0.11 µg m-3 decline from 2018 under the 2030 M&A scenario. Reduced PM2.5 air pollution under 2030 M&A results in 1216-1414 fewer premature all-cause deaths annually compared to 2030 BAU. Achievement of National Clean Air Programme, National Ambient Air Quality Standards, or World Health Organization annual PM2.5 Air Quality Guideline targets in 2030 results in up to 6510, 9047, or 17 369 fewer annual deaths, respectively, relative to 2030 BAU. This comprehensive modeling method is adaptable to estimate local air quality and health co-benefits in other settings by integrating climate, energy, cooling, land cover, air pollution, and health data. Our findings demonstrate that city-level climate change response policies can achieve substantial air quality and health co-benefits. Such work can inform public discourse on the near-term health benefits of mitigation and adaptation.

Dataset Information

The potential effects of climate change on air quality across the conterminous U.S. at 2030 under three Representative Concentration Pathways.

Publications

The potential effects of climate change on air quality across the conterminous U.S. at 2030 under three Representative Concentration Pathways.

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