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The plateau of human mortality: Demography of longevity pioneers.

ABSTRACT: Theories about biological limits to life span and evolutionary shaping of human longevity depend on facts about mortality at extreme ages, but these facts have remained a matter of debate. Do hazard curves typically level out into high plateaus eventually, as seen in other species, or do exponential increases persist? In this study, we estimated hazard rates from data on all inhabitants of Italy aged 105 and older between 2009 and 2015 (born 1896-1910), a total of 3836 documented cases. We observed level hazard curves, which were essentially constant beyond age 105. Our estimates are free from artifacts of aggregation that limited earlier studies and provide the best evidence to date for the existence of extreme-age mortality plateaus in humans.

SUBMITTER: Barbi E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6457902 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The plateau of human mortality: Demography of longevity pioneers.

Barbi Elisabetta E Lagona Francesco F Marsili Marco M Vaupel James W JW Wachter Kenneth W KW

Science (New York, N.Y.) 20180601 6396

Theories about biological limits to life span and evolutionary shaping of human longevity depend on facts about mortality at extreme ages, but these facts have remained a matter of debate. Do hazard curves typically level out into high plateaus eventually, as seen in other species, or do exponential increases persist? In this study, we estimated hazard rates from data on all inhabitants of Italy aged 105 and older between 2009 and 2015 (born 1896-1910), a total of 3836 documented cases. We obser ...[more]

PMID: 29954979

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Project description:BackgroundIncreases in human longevity have made it critical to distinguish healthy longevity from longevity without regard to health. Current methods focus on expectations of healthy longevity, and are often limited to binary health outcomes (e.g., disabled vs. not disabled). We present a new matrix formulation for the statistics of healthy longevity, based on health prevalence data and Markov chain theory, applicable to any kind of health outcome and which provides variances and higher moments as well as expectations of healthy life.MethodThe model is based on a Markov chain description of the life course coupled with the moments of health outcomes ("rewards") at each age or stage. As an example, we apply the method to nine European countries using the SHARE survey data on the binary outcome of disability as measured by activities of daily living, and the continuous health outcome of hand grip strength.ResultsWe provide analytical formulas for the mean, variance, coefficient of variation, skewness and other statistical properties of healthy longevity. The analysis is applicable to binary, categorical, ordinal, or interval scale health outcomes. The results are easily evaluated in any matrix-oriented software. The SHARE results reveal familiar patterns for the expectation of life and of healthy life: women live longer than men but spend less time in a healthy condition. New results on the variance shows that the standard deviation of remaining healthy life declines with age, but the coefficient of variation is nearly constant. Remaining grip strength years decrease with age more dramatically than healthy years but their variability pattern is similar to the pattern of healthy years. Patterns are similar across nine European countries.ConclusionsThe method extends, in several directions, current calculations of health expectancy (HE) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). It applies to both categorical and continuous health outcomes, to combinations of multiple outcomes (e.g., death and disability in the formulation of DALYs) and to age- or stage-classified models. It reveals previously unreported patterns of variation among individuals in the outcomes of healthy longevity.

Project description:Rottweilers are reportedly predisposed to many disorders but accurate prevalence information relating to the general population are lacking. This study aimed to describe demography, mortality and commonly recorded diseases in Rottweilers under UK veterinary care. Clinical health records within the VetCompass Programme were explored for disorders recorded during 2013.Rottweilers comprised 5321 (1.17%) of 455,557 dogs attending 304 clinics. Annual proportional birth rates dropped from 1.75% in 2006 to 1.07% in 2013. Median adult bodyweight overall was 44.9 kg (IQR 39.55-51.00, range 20.00-88.80). Median male adult bodyweight (48.5 kg, interquartile range [IQR] 43.0-54.0, range 20.0-88.8) was heavier than female (41.5 kg, IQR 37.0-46.4, range 21.1-73.5) (P < 0.001). Median longevity overall was 9.0 years (IQR 7.2-10.5, range 0.0-17.0). Median female longevity (9.5 years, IQR 7.8-11.0) was greater than male (8.7 years, IQR 6.8-10.1) (P?=?0.002). The most common causes of death were neoplasia (33.0%), inability to stand (16.0%) and mass-associated disorder (7.1%).At least one disorder was recorded for 60.31% of Rottweilers. The most prevalent specific disorders recorded were aggression (7.46%, 95% CI 6.40-8.64), overweight/obesity (7.06%, 95% CI: 6.02-8.21), otitis externa (6.14%, 95% CI: 5.18-7.23) and degenerative joint disease (4.69%, 95% CI: 3.84-5.66). Male Rottweilers had higher prevalence than females for aggression (9.36% versus 5.47%, P?=?0.001) and pyotraumatic dermatitis (4.05% versus 1.76%, P?=?0.001). Aggression was more prevalent in neutered than entire females (7.5% versus 3.1%, P?=?0.003) but did not differ between neutered and entire males (9.6% versus 9.0%, P?=?0.773). The most frequent disorder groups were musculoskeletal (12.01%, 95% CI: 10.69-13.45), dermatological (10.96%, 95% CI: 9.69-12.35), gastro-intestinal (195, 8.87%, 95% CI: 7.72-10.14), undesirable behaviour (7.96%, 95% CI: 6.87-9.18) and neoplasia (7.96%, 95% CI: 6.87-9.18).The current study assists prioritisation of health issues within Rottweilers. Rottweilers are relatively short-lived and neoplasia is a common cause of death. The most common disorders were aggression, overweight/obesity, otitis externa and degenerative joint disease. Males were significantly heavier, shorter-lived and predisposed to aggression than females. These results can alert prospective owners to potential health issues and optimise sex selection decision-making.

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The plateau of human mortality: Demography of longevity pioneers.

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The plateau of human mortality: Demography of longevity pioneers.

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