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Adverse risk factor trends limit gains in coronary heart disease mortality in Barbados: 1990-2012.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Although most countries face increasing population levels of obesity and diabetes their effect on coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality has not been often studied in small island developing states (SIDs) where obesity rates are among the highest in the world. We estimated the relative contributions of treatments and cardiovascular risk factors to the decline in CHD mortality from 1990 to 2012 in the Caribbean island, Barbados. METHODS:We used the IMPACT CHD mortality model to estimate the effect of increased coverage of effective medical/surgical treatments and changes in major CHD risk factors on mortality trends in 2012 compared with 1990. We calculated deaths prevented or postponed (DPPs) for each model risk factor and treatment group. We obtained data from WHO Mortality database, population denominators from the Barbados Statistical Service stratified by 10-year age group (ages 25-34 up to 85 plus), population-based risk factor surveys, Global Burden of Disease and Barbados' national myocardial infarction registry. Monte Carlo probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed. RESULTS:In 1990 the age-standardized CHD mortality rate was 109.5 per 100,000 falling to 55.3 in 2012. Implementation of effective treatment accounted for 56% DPPs (95% (Uncertainty Interval (UI) 46%, 68%), mostly due to the introduction of treatments immediately after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) (14%) and unstable angina (14%). Overall, risk factors contributed 19% DPPs (95% UI 6% to 34%) mostly attributed to decline in cholesterol (18% DPPs, 95% UI 12%, 26%). Adverse trends in diabetes: 14% additional deaths(ADs) 95% UI 8% to 21% ADs) and BMI (2% ADs 95%UI 0 to 5% ADs) limited potential for risk factor gains. CONCLUSIONS:Given the significant negative impact of obesity/diabetes on mortality in this analysis, research that explores factors affecting implementation of evidenced-based preventive strategies is needed. The fact that most of the decline in CHD mortality in Barbados was due to treatment provides an example for SIDs about the advantages of universal access to care and treatment.

SUBMITTER: Sobers NP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6469800 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Adverse risk factor trends limit gains in coronary heart disease mortality in Barbados: 1990-2012.

Sobers N P NP Unwin N N Samuels T A TA Capewell S S O'Flaherty M M Critchley J A JA

PloS one 20190417 4

<h4>Background</h4>Although most countries face increasing population levels of obesity and diabetes their effect on coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality has not been often studied in small island developing states (SIDs) where obesity rates are among the highest in the world. We estimated the relative contributions of treatments and cardiovascular risk factors to the decline in CHD mortality from 1990 to 2012 in the Caribbean island, Barbados.<h4>Methods</h4>We used the IMPACT CHD mortality m ...[more]

PMID: 30995272

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Project description:BackgroundMagnitudes, geographic and racial variation in trends in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality within the US require updating for health services and health disparities research. Therefore the aim of this study is to present data on these trends through 2007.MethodsData for CHD were analyzed using the US mortality files for 1999-2007 obtained from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Age-adjusted annual death rates were computed for non-Hispanic African Americans (AA) and European Americans (EA) aged 35-84 years. The direct method was used to standardize rates by age, using the 2000 US standard population. Joinpoint regression models were used to evaluate trends, expressed as annual percent change (APC).ResultsFor both AA men and women the magnitude in CHD mortality is higher compared to EA men and women, respectively. Between 1999 and 2007 the rate declined both in AA and in EA of both sexes in every geographic division; however, relative declines varied. For example, among men, relative average annual declines ranged from 3.2% to 4.7% in AA and from 4.4% to 5.5% in EA among geographic divisions. In women, rates declined more in later years of the decade and in women over 54 years. In 2007, age-adjusted death rate per 100,000 for CHD ranged from 93 in EA women in New England to 345 in AA men in the East North Central division. In EA, areas near the Ohio and lower Mississippi Rivers had above average rates. Disparities in trends by urbanization level were also found. For AA in the East North Central division, the APC was similar in large central metro (-4.2), large fringe metro (-4.3), medium metro urbanization strata (-4.4), and small metro (-3.9). APC was somewhat higher in the micropolitan/non-metro (-5.3), and especially the non-core/non-metro (-6.5). For EA in the East South Central division, the APC was higher in large central metro (-5.3), large fringe metro (-4.3) and medium metro urbanization strata (-5.1) than in small metro (-3.8), micropolitan/non-metro (-4.0), and non-core/non-metro (-3.3) urbanization strata.ConclusionsBetween 1999 and 2007, the level and rate of decline in CHD mortality displayed persistent disparities. Declines were greater in EA than AA racial groups. Rates were greater in the Ohio and Mississippi River than other geographic regions.

Project description:BackgroundIn Tunisia, Cardiovascular Diseases are the leading causes of death (30%), 70% of those are coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths and population studies have demonstrated that major risk factor levels are increasing.ObjectiveTo explain recent CHD trends in Tunisia between 1997 and 2009.MethodsData sourcesPublished and unpublished data were identified by extensive searches, complemented with specifically designed surveys.AnalysisData were integrated and analyzed using the previously validated IMPACT CHD policy model. Data items included: (i)number of CHD patients in specific groups (including acute coronary syndromes, congestive heart failure and chronic angina)(ii) uptake of specific medical and surgical treatments, and(iii) population trends in major cardiovascular risk factors (smoking, total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure (SBP), body mass index (BMI), diabetes and physical inactivity).ResultsCHD mortality rates increased by 11.8% for men and 23.8% for women, resulting in 680 additional CHD deaths in 2009 compared with the 1997 baseline, after adjusting for population change. Almost all (98%) of this rise was explained by risk factor increases, though men and women differed. A large rise in total cholesterol level in men (0.73 mmol/L) generated 440 additional deaths. In women, a fall (-0.43 mmol/L), apparently avoided about 95 deaths. For SBP a rise in men (4 mmHg) generated 270 additional deaths. In women, a 2 mmHg fall avoided 65 deaths. BMI and diabetes increased substantially resulting respectively in 105 and 75 additional deaths. Increased treatment uptake prevented about 450 deaths in 2009. The most important contributions came from secondary prevention following Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI) (95 fewer deaths), initial AMI treatments (90), antihypertensive medications (80) and unstable angina (75).ConclusionsRecent trends in CHD mortality mainly reflected increases in major modifiable risk factors, notably SBP and cholesterol, BMI and diabetes. Current prevention strategies are mainly focused on treatments but should become more comprehensive.

Project description:OBJECTIVE:To examine secular trends and geographical variations in sex differences in mortality from coronary heart disease and investigate how these relate to distributions in risk factors. DESIGN:National and international data were used to examine secular trends and geographical variations in sex differences in mortality from coronary heart disease and risk factors. SETTING:England and Wales, 1921-98; Australia, France, Japan, Sweden, and the United States, 1947-97; 50 countries, 1992-6. DATA SOURCES:Office for National Statistics, World Health Organization, and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. RESULTS:The 20th century epidemic of coronary heart disease affected only men in most industrialised countries and had a very rapid onset in England and Wales, which has been examined in detail. If this male only epidemic had not occurred there would have been 1.2 million fewer deaths from coronary heart disease in men in England and Wales over the past 50 years. Secular trends in mean per capita fat consumption show a similar pattern to secular trends in coronary heart disease mortality in men. Fat consumption is positively correlated with coronary heart disease mortality in men (r(s)=0.79; 95% confidence interval 0.70 to 0.86) and inversely associated with coronary heart disease mortality in women (-0.30; -0.49 to -0.08) over this time. Although sex ratios for mortality from coronary heart disease show a clear period effect, those for lung cancer show a cohort effect. Sex ratios for stroke mortality were constant and close to unity for the entire period. Geographical variations in the sex ratio for coronary heart disease were associated with mean per capita fat consumption (0.64; 0.44 to 0.78) but were not associated with the sex ratio for smoking. CONCLUSION:Sex differences are largely the result of environmental factors and hence not inevitable. Understanding the factors that determine sex differences has important implications for public health, particularly for countries and parts of countries where the death rates for coronary heart disease are currently increasing.

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Adverse risk factor trends limit gains in coronary heart disease mortality in Barbados: 1990-2012.

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Adverse risk factor trends limit gains in coronary heart disease mortality in Barbados: 1990-2012.

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