Trends in mortality rates from coronary heart disease in Belgrade (Serbia) during the period 1990-2010: a joinpoint regression analysis.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Vujcic IS
PROVIDER: S-EPMC3878899 | biostudies-other | 2013
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
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Project description:IntroductionSuicide by firearm is a major public health problem in many countries. But, studies that investigated the mortality of suicide by firearm on a global scale are still limited. The aim of this study was to assess the global, regional and national trends in mortality of suicide by firearm from 1990 to 2019.MethodMortality data of suicide by firearm was presented using the age-standardized rates (ASRs, expressed per 100,000). Joinpoint regression analysis was used to assess trends of mortality of suicide by firearm: the average annual percent change (AAPC) with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was calculated.ResultsA total of 52,694 (45,110 male and 7584 female) deaths of suicide by firearm were reported worldwide in 2019. The global ASR of suicide by firearm was six-fold higher in males than in females (1.15 per 100,000 and 0.19 per 100,000, respectively), and varied greatly across countries: the highest rates were in Greenland (24.52 per 100,000 and 2.69 per 100,000, respectively) and the United States of America (10.13 per 100,000 and 1.66 per 100,000, respectively), while the lowest rates (0.05 per 100,000 or less) were observed in China, Japan and Singapore. Globally, the mortality of suicide by firearm had a decreasing tendency from 1990 to 2019 in both sexes together (AAPC = -2.0% per year; 95%CI = -2.1 to -1.9).ConclusionDecreasing trends in mortality of suicide by firearm were observed in majority of countries across the world, but not in all. Future research should determine more effective ways to further reduce mortality of suicide by firearm.
| S-EPMC9132310 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundNowadays, high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) has been identified as the important risk factor contributing to the increased burden of diseases. But there remains a lack of research on tuberculosis (TB) mortality specifically attributable to HFPG. Thus, this study aims to explore the long-term trends in HFPG-related TB mortality in China from 1990 to 2019.MethodsData on HFPG-related TB mortality were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. Analyzing the data using joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort methods adjusting for age, period, and cohort allowed us to assess the trends in TB mortality due to HFPG.ResultsThe age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) of TB attributable to HFPG exhibited a downward trend in China from 1990 to 2019, with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of -7.0 (95% CI, -7.5 to -6.6). Similar trends were found for male (AAPC of -6.5 [95% CI, -7.0 to -6.0]) and female (AAPC of -8.2 [95% CI, -8.5 to -7.9]), respectively. Local drifts curve with a U-shaped pattern reflected the AAPC of TB mortality due to HFPG across age groups. The greatest decline was observed in the age group of 60-64 years. The mortality rates related to HFPG first increased and then decreased with increasing age, peaking in the 55-59 age group. Our analysis of the period and cohort effects found that the rate ratios of TB mortality due to HFPG have decreased over the past three decades, more prominently in women. It is noteworthy that while both genders have seen a decline in HFPG-attributable TB mortality and risk, men have a higher risk and slightly less significant decline than women.ConclusionThe present study shows that HFPG-related ASMRs and risk of TB in China decreased over the last 30 years, with similar trends observed in both men and women. In order to attain the recommended level set by the WHO, the effective strategies for glycemic control and management still needed to be implemented strictly to further decrease the burden of TB.
| S-EPMC10413982 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background The incidence and mortality trends of esophageal cancer (EC) remain unknown in China. This study aimed to describe the trend in incidence and mortality of EC in China. Methods We extracted age-standardized rates and numbers of EC in China for 1990−2019 from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) were calculated to describe the trends, while the annual percentage of change and the average annual percent change (AAPC) were analyzed by the joinpoint regression analysis. The incidence and mortality data were analyzed via age-period-cohort model analysis. Results The ASIR and ASMR decreased slightly before 1999, then increased from 1999 to 2004, and decreased again thereafter, with overall AAPC values of −2.5 (−2.8, −2.1) for females and -0.9 (−1.1, −0.8) for males regarding incidence, with overall AAPC values of −3.1 (−3.3, −2.9) for females and −1.2 (−1.3, −1.1) for males regarding mortality. As a whole, the relative risk (RR) of EC increased with age in both females and males regarding incidence and mortality, except for the 80–84-year-old age group in females and the 85–89-year-old age group in males regarding incidence, where they began to decrease. The RR of EC increased with age in females and males regarding mortality, except for the 85–89-year-old age group in males. The time period showed a trend of first rising and then decreasing, and the RR of time period effect was lower in 2015 than that in 1990 in females regarding both incidence and mortality, whereas males showed a significant upward trend in both incidence and mortality. The birth cohort effect showed an overall downward trend. Conclusions The overall incidence and mortality of EC in China shows an increased and then decreased trend from 1990 to 2019. The AAPC decreased in incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2019. The RR of incidence and mortality of EC in China is greatly affected by age in both sexes, by time period in male, we should be paid more attention to.
| S-EPMC9420985 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background/methodsThe Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Time Trends, Nordic Cancer Registries, Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results, WHO Mortality databases were assessed to extract the Age-Standardised Rates (ASR) of cancer incidence and mortality among children aged 0-14 years old. By using the ASRs, the country-specific Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) and its corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated to determine the epidemiological cancer trend.ResultsIn 2020, the highest incidence of childhood cancer was found in countries with higher Human Development Index (HDI) (ASR = 15.7), yet the highest mortality was found in countries with lower HDIs (ASR = 4.8). As for incidence, seven countries had positive AAPC among boys; Slovakia (AAPC2001-2010 = 4.98, 95% CI [1.66-8.40]), Ecuador (AAPC2003-2012 = 4.07, 95% CI [0.67-7.59]) and Thailand (AAPC2003-2012 = 3.69, 95% CI [0.37-7.11]) had the highest AAPC. Among girls, three countries had positive AAPC, which included Belarus (AAPC2003-2012 = 3.18, 95% CI [1.11, 5.29]), Canada (AAPC2003-2012 = 2.83, 95% CI [1.60, 4.07]) and Korea (AAPC2003-2012 = 1.76, 95% CI [0.23-3.32]). There was an overall decreasing trend of mortality. However, increased mortality was observed in two countries: Ecuador for boys (AAPC2007-2016 = 1.72, 95% CI [0.27-3.19]) and Austria for girls (AAPC2008-2017 = 4.11, 95% CI [0.38-7.98]).ConclusionsThe largest mortality and mortality to incidence ratio of childhood cancer were found in low-income countries. There was a substantial increasing trend of childhood cancer incidence, while overall its mortality has been decreasing over the past decade. More studies are needed to confirm the drivers behind these epidemiologic trends.
| S-EPMC9883415 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Globally, breast cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths, accounting for 15.5% of female cancer deaths in 2020. Breast cancer is also the leading cause of female cancers in South Africa. The rapid epidemiological transition in South Africa may have an impact on the trends in breast cancer mortality in the country. We therefore evaluated the trends in the breast cancer mortality in SA over 20 years (1999-2020).MethodsJoinpoint regression analyses of the trends in crude and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) of breast cancer among South African women were conducted from 1999 to 2018 using mortality data from Statistics South Africa. Age-period-cohort regression analysis was then conducted to evaluate the independent effect of age, period, and cohort on breast cancer mortality, and analysis was stratified by ethnicity.ResultsThe mortality rate of breast cancer (from 9.82 to 13.27 per 100,000 women) increased at around 1.4% per annum (Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC): 1.4%, 95% CI:0.8-2.0, P-value< 0.001). Young women aged 30-49 years (1.1%-1.8%, P-value< 0.001) had increased breast cancer mortality. The risk of breast cancer mortality increased among successive birth cohorts from 1924 to 1928 but decreased among recent cohorts born from 1989 to 1993. In 2018, the breast cancer mortality rate among Blacks (9.49/100,000 women) was around half of the rates among the non-Blacks. (Coloreds: 18.11 per 100,000 women; Whites: 17.77/100,000 women; Indian/Asian: 13.24 per 100,000 women).ConclusionsContrary to the trends in high- and middle-income countries, breast cancer mortality increased in South Africa especially among young women. Breast cancer prevention programs should be intensified and should also target young women. The marked disparity in ethnic burden of breast cancer should be considered during planning and implementation of interventions.
| S-EPMC9935608 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAnalyses of temporal trends in immunisation coverage may help to identify problems in immunisation activities at specific points in time. These data are essential for further planning, meeting recommended indicators, monitoring, management and advocacy.AimThis study examined the trends of mandatory vaccination coverage in the period 2000-2017 in Serbia.MethodsData on completed immunisations were retrieved from annual national reports of the Institute of Public Health of Serbia during the period 2000-2017. To assess the trends of immunisation coverage, both linear and joinpoint regression analyses were performed. A probability p < 0.05 was considered significant.ResultsOver the period 2000-2017 linear regression analysis showed a significant decline in coverage with the primary vaccination against poliomyelitis, diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis and measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) (p ≤ 0.01). In the same period, coverage of all subsequent revaccinations significantly decreased, namely, first revaccination for pertussis (p < 0.01); first, second and third revaccination against diphtheria, tetanus and poliomyelitis (p < 0.01); and second dose against MMR before enrolment in elementary school (p < 0.05). Although linear regression analysis did not show change in vaccination coverage trend against tuberculosis (Bacillus Calmette-Guérin; BCG), hepatitis B (HepB3) in infants and diseases caused by Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib3), the joinpoint regression analysis showed that the coverage declined for BCG after 2006, HepB3 after 2010 and Hib3 after 2008.ConclusionTo achieve and keep optimum immunisation coverage, it is necessary to address barriers to immunisation, such as the availability of all vaccines and vaccine-hesitancy among parents and healthcare workers in Serbia.
| S-EPMC8326657 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundInjury is a social problem that causes health and property losses, and it is important to identify the size and trend of injury for efficient prevention and management. Therefore, this study analyzed the trends in injury mortality and hospitalization rates from 2005 to 2019 in Korea.MethodsUsing mortality data by Statistics Korea and Korea National Hospital Discharge In-depth injury survey by the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA), age standardized rates were calculated for death and hospitalization to analyze trends and annual changes with the joinpoint regression model. In addition, annual changes in the hospitalization rate of the transport accident and fall injuries by age group were analyzed, which are the major causes of injuries.ResultsFrom 2005 to 2019, the injury mortality rate has been on the decline, but the injury hospitalization rate has been on the rise. The annual rate of change varied depending on the injury mechanism, but the mortality rate tended to decrease or remain similar level, while the rate of hospitalization has steadily increased. In addition, by age group, injury mortality and hospitalization rates were high in the elderly. In particular, the hospitalization rate of the elderly was higher when comparing the hospitalization rate of the children in transport accidents and falls. Pedestrian transport accidents tended to decrease under the age of 15, but remained similar for those aged 65 and older, and bicycle accidents tended to increase in both groups. In addition, hospitalization rates were higher in the fall, with both groups showing a statistically significant increase in hospitalization rates caused by falls.ConclusionThis study analyzed the trend of injury mortality and hospitalization and found that transport accidents and falls may vary depending on the means or age of the accident. Since injury is a big social problem that is a burden of disease, safety education and legal sanctions for injury prevention should be further improved in the future, especially by prioritizing vulnerable groups by age and detailed mechanisms of injury.
| S-EPMC8763882 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Air quality across the northern hemisphere over the past two decades has witnessed dramatic changes, with continuous improvement in developed countries in North America and Europe, but a contrasting sharp deterioration in developing regions of Asia.This study investigates the historical trend in the long-term exposure to PM2.5 and PM2.5-related premature mortality (PM2.5-mortality) and its response to changes in emission that occurred during 1990-2010 across the northern hemisphere. Implications for future trends in human exposure to air pollution in both developed and developing regions of the world are discussed.We employed the integrated exposure-response model developed by Health Effects Institute to estimate the PM2.5-mortality. The 1990-2010 annual average PM2.5 concentrations were obtained from the simulations using the WRF-CMAQ model. Emission mitigation efficiencies of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), ammonia (NH3), and primary PM are estimated from the PM2.5-mortality responses to the emission variations.Estimated PM2.5-mortalities in East Asia and South Asia increased by 21% and 85% respectively, from 866,000 and 578,000 in 1990, to 1,048,000 and 1,068,000 in 2010. PM2.5-mortalities in developed regions (i.e., Europe and high-income North America) decreased substantially by 67% and 58% respectively.Over the past two decades, correlations between population and PM2.5 have become weaker in Europe and North America due to air pollution controls but stronger in East Asia due to deteriorating air quality. Mitigation of primary PM appears to be the most efficient way for increasing health benefits (i.e., providing the largest mortality reduction per unit emissions). However, reductions in emissions of NH3 are needed to maximize the effectiveness of NOx emission controls. Citation: Wang J, Xing J, Mathur R, Pleim JE, Wang S, Hogrefe C, Gan CM, Wong DC, Hao J. 2017. Historical trends in PM2.5-related premature mortality during 1990-2010 across the northern hemisphere. Environ Health Perspect 125:400-408;?http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP298.
| S-EPMC5332185 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Residing in a high-poverty area has consistently been associated with higher mortality rates, but the association between poverty and mortality can change over time. We examine the association between neighborhood poverty and mortality in New York City (NYC) during 1990-2010 to document mortality disparity changes over time and determine causes of death for which disparities are greatest. We used NYC and New York state mortality data for years 1990, 2000, and 2010 to calculate all-cause and cause-specific age-adjusted death rates (AADRs) by census tract poverty (CTP), which is the proportion of persons in a census tract living below the federal poverty threshold. We calculated mortality disparities, measured as the difference in AADR between the lowest and highest CTP groups, within and across race/ethnicity, nativity, and sex categories by year. We observed higher all-cause AADRs with higher CTP for each year for all race/ethnicities, both sexes, and US-born persons. Mortality disparities decreased progressively during 1990-2010 for the NYC population overall, for each race/ethnic group, and for the majority of causes of death. The overall mortality disparity between the highest and lowest CTP groups during 2010 was 2.55 deaths/1000 population. The largest contributors to mortality disparities were heart disease (51.52 deaths/100,000 population), human immunodeficiency virus (19.96/100,000 population), and diabetes (19.59/100,000 population). We show that progress was made in narrowing socioeconomic disparities in mortality during 1990-2010, but substantial disparities remain. Future efforts toward achieving health equity in NYC mortality should focus on areas contributing most to disparities.
| S-EPMC4899332 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We tested the hypotheses that the global incidence of bladder cancer was increasing but its mortality was reducing and its incidence was positively correlated with country-specific socioeconomic development. We retrieved data on age-standardized incidence and mortality rates/100,000 from the GLOBOCAN database in 2012. Temporal patterns were examined for 39 countries from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents volumes I-X and other national registries. We evaluated the correlation between the incidence/mortality rates and Human Development Index (HDI)/ logarithmic values of Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDP). The average annual percent change of the incidence and mortality rates in the most recent 10 years was examined by joinpoint regression analysis. The highest incidence rates were observed in Southern Europe, Western Europe and North America. The mortality rates were the highest in Western Asia and Northern Africa. The incidence was positively correlated with HDI (r?=?0.66 [men]; r?=?0.50 [women]) and to a lesser extent logarithmic values of GDP per capita (r?=?0.60 [men]; r?=?0.50 [women], all p?<?0.01). Many European countries experienced incidence rise. A substantial mortality reduction was observed in most countries, yet increases in mortality rates were observed in the Philippines and Iceland. These findings identified countries where more preventive actions are required.
| S-EPMC5773684 | biostudies-other