Dataset Information

Reframing Future Risks of Extreme Heat in the United States.

ABSTRACT: The goal of this study is to reframe the analysis and discussion of extreme heat projections to improve communication of future extreme heat risks in the United States. We combine existing data from 31 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models to examine future exposure to extreme heat for global average temperatures of 1.5, 2, 3, and 4 °C above a preindustrial baseline. We find that throughout the United States, historically rare extreme heat events become increasingly common in the future as global temperatures rise and that the depiction of exposure depends in large part on whether extreme heat is defined by absolute or relative metrics. For example, for a 4 °C global temperature rise, parts of the country may never see summertime temperatures in excess of 100 °F, but virtually all of the country is projected to experience more than 4 weeks per summer with temperatures exceeding their historical summertime maximum. All of the extreme temperature metrics we explored become more severe with increasing global average temperatures. However, a moderate climate scenario delays the impacts projected for a 3 °C world by almost a generation relative to the higher scenario and prevents the most extreme impacts projected for a 4 °C world.

SUBMITTER: Wobus C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6473665 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Reframing Future Risks of Extreme Heat in the United States.

Wobus C C Zarakas C C Malek P P Sanderson B B Crimmins A A Kolian M M Sarofim M M Weaver C P CP

Earth's future 20180926 9

The goal of this study is to reframe the analysis and discussion of extreme heat projections to improve communication of future extreme heat risks in the United States. We combine existing data from 31 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models to examine future exposure to extreme heat for global average temperatures of 1.5, 2, 3, and 4 °C above a preindustrial baseline. We find that throughout the United States, historically rare extreme heat events become increasingly common ...[more]

PMID: 31032376

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Project description:ObjectiveTo quantify the association between ambient heat and visits to the emergency department (ED) for any cause and for cause specific conditions in the conterminous United States among adults with health insurance.DesignTime stratified case crossover analyses with distributed lag non-linear models.SettingUS nationwide administrative healthcare claims database.ParticipantsAll commercial and Medicare Advantage beneficiaries (74.2 million) aged 18 years and older between May and September 2010 to 2019.Main outcome measuresDaily rates of ED visits for any cause, heat related illness, renal disease, cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, and mental disorders based on discharge diagnosis codes.Results21 996 670 ED visits were recorded among adults with health insurance living in 2939 US counties. Days of extreme heat-defined as the 95th centile of the local warm season (May through September) temperature distribution (at 34.4°C v 14.9°C national average level)-were associated with a 7.8% (95% confidence interval 7.3% to 8.2%) excess relative risk of ED visits for any cause, 66.3% (60.2% to 72.7%) for heat related illness, 30.4% (23.4% to 37.8%) for renal disease, and 7.9% (5.2% to 10.7%) for mental disorders. Days of extreme heat were associated with an excess absolute risk of ED visits for heat related illness of 24.3 (95% confidence interval 22.9 to 25.7) per 100 000 people at risk per day. Heat was not associated with a higher risk of ED visits for cardiovascular or respiratory diseases. Associations were more pronounced among men and in counties in the north east of the US or with a continental climate.ConclusionsAmong both younger and older adults, days of extreme heat are associated with a higher risk of ED visits for any cause, heat related illness, renal disease, and mental disorders. These results suggest that the adverse health effects of extreme heat are not limited to older adults and carry important implications for the health of adults across the age spectrum.

Dataset Information

Reframing Future Risks of Extreme Heat in the United States.

Publications

Reframing Future Risks of Extreme Heat in the United States.

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