Dataset Information

Time Since Infection and Risks of Future Disease for Individuals with Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection in the United States.

ABSTRACT: Background: Risk of tuberculosis (TB) declines over time since Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, but progression to clinical disease is still possible decades later. In the United States, most TB cases result from the progression of latent TB infection acquired over 2 years ago.

Methods: We synthesized evidence on TB natural history and incidence trends using a transmission-dynamic model. For the 2020 US population, we estimated average time since infection and annual, cumulative, and remaining lifetime risks of progression to TB, by nativity and age.

Results: For a newly infected adult with no other risk factors for progression to TB, estimated rates of progression declined from 38 (95% uncertainty interval: 33, 46) to 0.38 (0.32, 0.45) per 1000 person-years between the first and 25th year since infection. Cumulative risk over 25 years from new infection was 7.9% (7.0, 8.9). In 2020, an estimated average age of individuals with prevalent infection was 62 (61, 63) for the US-born population, 55 (54, 55) for non-US-born, and 57 (56, 58) overall. Average risks of developing TB over the remaining lifetime were 1.2% (1.0, 1.4) for US-born, 2.2% (1.8, 2.6) for non-US-born, and 1.9% (1.6, 2.2) for the general population. Risk estimates were higher for younger age groups.

Conclusions: Our analysis suggests that, although newly infected individuals face appreciable lifetime TB risks, most US individuals with latent TB infection were infected long ago, and face low future risks of developing TB. Better approaches are needed for identifying recently infected individuals and those with elevated progression risks.

SUBMITTER: Menzies NA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7707158 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Time Since Infection and Risks of Future Disease for Individuals with Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection in the United States.

Menzies Nicolas A NA Swartwood Nicole N Testa Christian C Malyuta Yelena Y Hill Andrew N AN Marks Suzanne M SM Cohen Ted T Salomon Joshua A JA

Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) 20210101 1

<h4>Background</h4>Risk of tuberculosis (TB) declines over time since Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, but progression to clinical disease is still possible decades later. In the United States, most TB cases result from the progression of latent TB infection acquired over 2 years ago.<h4>Methods</h4>We synthesized evidence on TB natural history and incidence trends using a transmission-dynamic model. For the 2020 US population, we estimated average time since infection and annual, cumulativ ...[more]

PMID: 33009253

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Project description:The Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) species includes both M. tuberculosis, the primary cause of human tuberculosis (TB), and M. bovis, the primary cause of bovine tuberculosis (bTB), as well as other closely related Mycobacterium species. Zoonotic transmission of M. bovis from cattle to humans was recognized more than a century ago, but transmission of MTBC species from humans to cattle is less often recognized. Within the last decade, multiple published reports from around the world describe human-to-cattle transmission of MTBC. Three probable cases of human-to-cattle MTBC transmission have occurred in the United States since 2013. In the first case, detection of active TB disease (M. bovis) in a dairy employee in North Dakota prompted testing and ultimate detection of bTB infection in the dairy herd. Whole genome sequencing (WGS) demonstrated a match between the bTB strain in the employee and an infected cow. North Dakota animal and public health officials concluded that the employee's infection was the most likely source of disease introduction in the dairy. The second case involved a Wisconsin dairy herd with an employee diagnosed with TB disease in 2015. Subsequently, the herd was tested twice with no disease detected. Three years later, a cow originating from this herd was detected with bTB at slaughter. The strain in the slaughter case matched that of the past employee based on WGS. The third case was a 4-month-old heifer calf born in New Mexico and transported to Texas. The calf was TB tested per Texas entry requirements and found to have M. tuberculosis. Humans are the suspected source of M. tuberculosis in cattle; however, public health authorities were not able to identify an infected human associated with the cattle operation. These three cases provide strong evidence of human-to-cattle transmission of MTBC organisms and highlight human infection as a potential source of introduction of MTBC into dairy herds in the United States. To better understand and address the issue, a multisectoral One Health approach is needed, where industry, public health, and animal health work together to better understand the epidemiology and identify preventive measures to protect human and animal health.

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Dataset Information

Time Since Infection and Risks of Future Disease for Individuals with Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection in the United States.

Publications

Time Since Infection and Risks of Future Disease for Individuals with Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection in the United States.

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