Dataset Information

The epidemic potential of avian influenza A (H7N9) virus in humans in mainland China: A two-stage risk analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

From 2013 to 2017, more than one thousand avian influenza A (H7N9) confirmed cases with hundreds of deaths were reported in mainland China. To identify priorities for epidemic prevention and control, a risk assessing framework for subnational variations is needed to define the epidemic potential of A (H7N9).

Methods

We established a consolidated two-stage framework that outlined the potential epidemic of H7N9 in humans: The Stage 1, index-case potential, used a Boosted Regression Trees model to assess population at risk due to spillover from poultry; the Stage 2, epidemic potential, synthesized the variables upon a framework of the Index for Risk Management to measure epidemic potential based on the probability of hazards and exposure, the vulnerability and coping capacity.

Results

Provinces in southern and eastern China, especially Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangzhou, have high index-case potential of human infected with A (H7N9), while northern coastal provinces and municipalities with low morbidity, i.e. Tianjin and Liaoning, have an increasing risk of A (H7N9) infection. Provinces in central China are likely to have high potential of epidemic due to the high vulnerability and the lack of coping capacity.

Conclusions

This study provides a unified risk assessment of A (H7N9) to detect the two-stage heterogeneity of epidemic potential among different provinces in mainland China, allowing proactively evaluate health preparedness at subnational levels to improve surveillance, diagnostic capabilities, and health promotion.

SUBMITTER: Shan X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6474630 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

The epidemic potential of avian influenza A (H7N9) virus in humans in mainland China: A two-stage risk analysis.

Shan Xuzheng X Lai Shengjie S Liao Hongxiu H Li Zhongjie Z Lan Yajia Y Yang Weizhong W

PloS one 20190419 4

<h4>Background</h4>From 2013 to 2017, more than one thousand avian influenza A (H7N9) confirmed cases with hundreds of deaths were reported in mainland China. To identify priorities for epidemic prevention and control, a risk assessing framework for subnational variations is needed to define the epidemic potential of A (H7N9).<h4>Methods</h4>We established a consolidated two-stage framework that outlined the potential epidemic of H7N9 in humans: The Stage 1, index-case potential, used a Boosted ...[more]

PMID: 31002703

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Project description:The novel low-pathogenic avian influenza A H7N9 viruses (LPAI H7N9 viruses) have been a threat to public health since their emergence in 2013 because of the high rates of mortality and morbidity that they cause. Recently, highly pathogenic variants of these avian influenza A H7N9 viruses (HPAI H7N9 viruses) have emerged and caused human infections and outbreaks among poultry in mainland China. However, it is still unclear how the HPAI H7N9 virus was generated and how it evolved and spread in China. Here, we show that the ancestor virus of the HPAI H7N9 viruses originated in the Yangtze River Delta region and spread southward to the Pearl River Delta region, possibly through live poultry trade. After introduction into the Pearl River Delta region, the origin LPAI H7N9 virus acquired four amino acid insertions in the hemagglutinin (HA) protein cleavage site and mutated into the HPAI H7N9 virus in late May 2016. Afterward, the HPAI H7N9 viruses further reassorted with LPAI H7N9 or H9N2 viruses locally and generated multiple different genotypes. As of 14 July 2017, the HPAI H7N9 viruses had spread from Guangdong Province to at least 12 other provinces. The rapid geographical expansion and genetic evolution of the HPAI H7N9 viruses pose a great challenge not only to public health but also to poultry production. Effective control measures, including enhanced surveillance, are therefore urgently needed.IMPORTANCE The LPAI H7N9 virus has caused five outbreak waves in humans and was recently reported to have mutated into highly pathogenic variants. It is unknown how the HPAI H7N9 virus originated, evolved, and disseminated in China. In this study, we comprehensively analyzed the sequences of HPAI H7N9 viruses from 28 human and 21 environmental samples covering eight provinces in China that were taken from November 2016 to June 2017. The results show that the ancestor virus of the HPAI H7N9 viruses originated in the Yangtze River Delta region. However, the insertion of four amino acids into the HA protein cleavage site of an LPAI H7N9 virus occurred in late May 2016 in the Pearl River Delta region. The mutated HPAI H7N9 virus further reassorted with LPAI H7N9 or H9N2 viruses that were cocirculating in poultry. Considering the rapid geographical expansion of the HPAI H7N9 viruses, effective control measures are urgently needed.

Dataset Information

The epidemic potential of avian influenza A (H7N9) virus in humans in mainland China: A two-stage risk analysis.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

The epidemic potential of avian influenza A (H7N9) virus in humans in mainland China: A two-stage risk analysis.

Similar Datasets

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