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Modelling the long-term benefits of tolvaptan therapy on renal function decline in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease: an exploratory analysis using the ADPKD outcomes model.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:The short-term efficacy of tolvaptan in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) has been demonstrated across several phase 3 trials, while the ADPKD Outcomes Model (ADPKD-OM) represents a validated approach to predict natural disease progression over a lifetime horizon. This study describes the implementation of a tolvaptan treatment effect within the ADPKD-OM and explores the potential long-term benefits of tolvaptan therapy in ADPKD. METHODS:The effect of tolvaptan on ADPKD progression was modelled by applying a constant treatment effect to the rate of renal function decline, consistent with that observed in the Tolvaptan Efficacy and Safety in Management of Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease and Its Outcomes trial (TEMPO 3:4; ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT00428948 ). Predictions generated by the ADPKD-OM were compared against aggregated data from a subsequent extension trial (TEMPO 4:4; ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT01214421 ) and the Replicating Evidence of Preserved Renal Function an Investigation of Tolvaptan Safety Efficacy in ADPKD trial (REPRISE; ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT02160145 ). Following validation, an application of the ADPKD-OM sought to estimate the benefit of tolvaptan therapy on time to end-stage renal disease (ESRD), in a range of ADPKD populations. RESULTS:Model validation against TEMPO 4:4 and REPRISE demonstrated the accuracy and generalisability of the tolvaptan treatment effect applied within the ADPKD-OM. In simulated patients matched to the overall TEMPO 3:4 trial population at baseline, tolvaptan therapy was predicted to delay the mean age of ESRD onset by five years, compared to natural disease progression (57?years versus 52?years, respectively). In subgroup and sensitivity analyses, the estimated delay to ESRD was greatest among patients with CKD stage 1 at baseline (6.6?years), compared to CKD 2 and 3 subgroups (4.7 and 2.7?years, respectively); and ADPKD patients in Mayo subclasses 1C-1E. CONCLUSIONS:This study demonstrated the potential for tolvaptan therapy to delay time to ESRD, particularly among patients with early-stage CKD and evidence of rapidly progressing disease. Data arising from this study highlight the value to be gained by early intervention and long-term treatment with tolvaptan, which may alleviate the economic and societal costs of providing care to patients who progress to ESRD.

SUBMITTER: Bennett H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6480528 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modelling the long-term benefits of tolvaptan therapy on renal function decline in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease: an exploratory analysis using the ADPKD outcomes model.

Bennett Hayley H McEwan Phil P Hamilton Karina K O'Reilly Karl K

BMC nephrology 20190423 1

<h4>Background</h4>The short-term efficacy of tolvaptan in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) has been demonstrated across several phase 3 trials, while the ADPKD Outcomes Model (ADPKD-OM) represents a validated approach to predict natural disease progression over a lifetime horizon. This study describes the implementation of a tolvaptan treatment effect within the ADPKD-OM and explores the potential long-term benefits of tolvaptan therapy in ADPKD.<h4>Methods</h4 ...[more]

PMID: 31014270

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Project description:BACKGROUND:The course of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is often associated with pain, hypertension, and kidney failure. Preclinical studies indicated that vasopressin V(2)-receptor antagonists inhibit cyst growth and slow the decline of kidney function. METHODS:In this phase 3, multicenter, double-blind, placebo-controlled, 3-year trial, we randomly assigned 1445 patients, 18 to 50 years of age, who had ADPKD with a total kidney volume of 750 ml or more and an estimated creatinine clearance of 60 ml per minute or more, in a 2:1 ratio to receive tolvaptan, a V(2)-receptor antagonist, at the highest of three twice-daily dose regimens that the patient found tolerable, or placebo. The primary outcome was the annual rate of change in the total kidney volume. Sequential secondary end points included a composite of time to clinical progression (defined as worsening kidney function, kidney pain, hypertension, and albuminuria) and rate of kidney-function decline. RESULTS:Over a 3-year period, the increase in total kidney volume in the tolvaptan group was 2.8% per year (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.5 to 3.1), versus 5.5% per year in the placebo group (95% CI, 5.1 to 6.0; P<0.001). The composite end point favored tolvaptan over placebo (44 vs. 50 events per 100 follow-up-years, P=0.01), with lower rates of worsening kidney function (2 vs. 5 events per 100 person-years of follow-up, P<0.001) and kidney pain (5 vs. 7 events per 100 person-years of follow-up, P=0.007). Tolvaptan was associated with a slower decline in kidney function (reciprocal of the serum creatinine level, -2.61 [mg per milliliter](-1) per year vs. -3.81 [mg per milliliter](-1) per year; P<0.001). There were fewer ADPKD-related adverse events in the tolvaptan group but more events related to aquaresis (excretion of electrolyte-free water) and hepatic adverse events unrelated to ADPKD, contributing to a higher discontinuation rate (23%, vs. 14% in the placebo group). CONCLUSIONS:Tolvaptan, as compared with placebo, slowed the increase in total kidney volume and the decline in kidney function over a 3-year period in patients with ADPKD but was associated with a higher discontinuation rate, owing to adverse events. (Funded by Otsuka Pharmaceuticals and Otsuka Pharmaceutical Development and Commercialization; TEMPO 3:4 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00428948.).

Project description:BACKGROUND:Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD), a common of monogenetic disorder caused by the polycystic kidney disease-1 (PKD1) or PKD2 genes deficiency. In this study, we have re-analyzed a microarray dataset to generate a holistic view of this disease. METHODOLOGY:GSE7869, an expression profiling dataset was downloaded from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database. After quality control assessment, using GEO2R tool of GEO, genes with adjusted p-value???0.05 were determined as differentially expressed (DE). The expression profiles from ADPKD samples in different sizes were compared. Using CluePedia plugin of Cytoscape software, the protein-protein interaction (PPI) networks were constructed and analyzed by Cytoscape NetworkAnalyzer tool and MCODE application. Pathway enrichment analysis of clustered genes by MCODE with the high centrality parameters in PPI networks was performed using Cytoscape ClueGO plugin. Moreover, by Enrichr database, microRNAs (miRNAs) and transcription factors (TFs) targeted DE genes were identified. RESULTS:In this study to explore the molecular pathogenesis of kidney in ADPKD, mRNA expression profiles of cysts from patients in different sizes were re-analyzed. The comparisons were performed between normal with minimally cystic tissue (MCT) samples, MCTs with small cysts, and small cysts with large cysts. 512, 7024, and 655 DE genes were determined, respectively. The top central genes, e.g. END1, EGFR, and FOXO1 were identified with topology and clustering analysis. DE genes that were significantly enriched in PPI networks are critical genes and their roles in ADPKD remain to be assessed in future experimental studies beside miRNAs and TFs predicted. Furthermore, the functional analysis resulted in which most of them are expected to be associated with ADPKD pathogenesis, such as signal pathways that involved in cell growth, inflammation, and cell polarity. CONCLUSION:We have here explored systematic approaches for molecular mechanisms assay of ADPKD as a monogenic disease, which may also be used for other monogenetic diseases beside complex diseases to provide suitable therapeutic targets.

Project description:BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES:In the 3-year Tolvaptan Efficacy and Safety in Management of ADPKD and Its Outcomes (TEMPO) 3:4 and 1-year Replicating Evidence of Preserved Renal Function: an Investigation of Tolvaptan Safety and Efficacy in ADPKD (REPRISE) trials, tolvaptan slowed the decline of eGFR in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease at early and later stages of CKD, respectively. Our objective was to ascertain whether the reduction associated with the administration of tolvaptan is sustained, cumulative, and likely to delay the need for kidney replacement therapy. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS:One hundred and twenty-eight patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease participated in clinical trials of tolvaptan at the Mayo Clinic. All had the opportunity to enroll into open-label extension studies. Twenty participated in short-term studies or received placebo only. The remaining 108 were analyzed for safety. Ninety seven patients treated with tolvaptan for ?1 year (mean±SD, 4.6±2.8; range, 1.1-11.2) were analyzed for efficacy using three approaches: (1) comparison of eGFR slopes and outcome (33% reduction from baseline eGFR) to controls matched by sex, age, and baseline eGFR; (2) Stability of eGFR slopes with duration of follow-up; and (3) comparison of observed and predicted eGFRs at last follow-up. RESULTS:Patients treated with tolvaptan had lower eGFR slopes from baseline (mean±SD, -2.20±2.18 ml/min per 1.73 m2 per year) and from month 1 (mean±SD, -1.97±2.44 ml/min per 1.73 m2 per year) compared with controls (mean±SD, -3.50±2.09 ml/min per 1.73 m2 per year; P<0.001), and lower risk of a 33% reduction in eGFR (risk ratio, 0.63; 95% confidence interval, 0.38 to 0.98 from baseline; risk ratio, 0.53; 95% confidence interval, 0.31 to 0.85 from month 1). Annualized eGFR slopes of patients treated with tolvaptan did not change during follow-up and differences between observed and predicted eGFRs at last follow-up increased with duration of treatment. CONCLUSIONS:Follow-up for up to 11.2 years (average 4.6 years) showed a sustained reduction in the annual rate of eGFR decline in patients treated with tolvaptan compared with controls and an increasing separation of eGFR values over time between the two groups.

Dataset Information

Modelling the long-term benefits of tolvaptan therapy on renal function decline in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease: an exploratory analysis using the ADPKD outcomes model.

Publications

Modelling the long-term benefits of tolvaptan therapy on renal function decline in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease: an exploratory analysis using the ADPKD outcomes model.

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